Monday, January 31, 2011

Huntsman for President in 2012.

KSL is reporting that former Governor of Utah and current US Ambassador to China, Jon M. Huntsman, Jr. is preparing to resign his ambassadorship and run for President.

Now is the time for a relative unknown like Huntsman to get into the race, even though it might be a little early.  There is no clear front runner in the race at this time, and a dark horse like Huntsman, a successful former governor can actually win the whole thing.

Huntsman has two main liabilities in the race for President.  First, he is a Latter-Day Saint like Mitt Romney and there may be some GOP voters who will not vote for him because of his religion.  In fact, his late maternal grandfather is David B Haight, who was an Apostle in LDS church...in a manner of speaking, the Mormon equivalent of a Cardinal.  The other liability is that he is not considered a staunch conservative, especially in the environmental arena.  But chances are the people who will hold his environmental record against be the same people that will hold his religion against him.  Some consider Huntsman to be the man who will carry the banner of the "Establishment" Republicans.

Jon Huntsman has some definite strengths.  Huntsman will do well in "Romney Country" and does not have the stigma of a failed state health care plan like Romney does.  If he would win the nomination, he would do well in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and even California, states that the GOP candidate needs to carry if they expect to win in 2012.  He is considered a fiscal conservative and pro-business which will help him win traditional Republican states that McCain lost in 2008, like Virgina.

His accomplishments as the Governor of Utah show that he can reign in an ultra-conservative legislature, which means that he should poll well with Republicans who are scared of the TEA Party.  He changed the tax structure in Utah to partially break the legislative dependence on a sales tax on groceries.  (Too bad that Herbert has not been able to complete the job.)  He implemented other tax and regulatory policies in Utah that are considered to be business friendly, and those efforts have borne fruit as Utah's unemployment rate is 2.5% below the national average.

In the health care arena, his views are to encourage the insurance industry to help people with preventative health care measures.  This will reduce demand pressure on prices.  It will also help the insurance companies to reduce their costs. (Preventative focus is one of my Eight Points.)  His fiscal policies in the state of Utah have ensured that the state has been able to keep the books balanced without raising taxes nor producing a large debt, so far.  Utah is considered one of the best managed states in the United States.

He also has the historical precedence to unseat a sitting President.  He has served as a state governor for 5 years before becoming the ambassador to China, and was elected twice.  He also has across the isle appeal.  In 2008, many Salt Lake County residents voted Obama for President and Huntsman for Governor.

It is a crowded GOP field already for 2012 and no clear front runner.  Someone like Huntsman could emerge from the pack.

This article compares Romney and Huntsman.

Sunday, January 23, 2011

Will Obama get re-elected? April 4 update

My last two blogs were an attempt to show how history favors the incumbent president when running for a second term.  There are more the two dozen Republicans lining up to unseat him, and his approval numbers have been less than stellar as of late.  Based upon history, Obama will win another term in the White House if the following conditions work to his favor.

1.  He must avoid a serious primary challenge.  A serious challenge may not be in the number of votes won by the opponent, but how the opponent campaigns.  In 1992, Pat Buchanan won 38% of the vote in New Hampshire and almost nothing else.  Very minor indeed; but it exposed where George HW Bush was weak.  H Ross Perot used this knowledge to wrangle 19% of the popular vote from Bush and sent Bill Clinton to the White House.

2.  He must unite his party.  A dis-unified Democratic party may stay home on election day, vote for the Republican opponent or vote for a radical third party candidate.  With the Republicans in control of the House of Representatives, Obama will have to moderate his tone.  This change of tone worked well for Bill Clinton in 1996.  If not done right, it could weaken Obama.

3.  He must not let the campaign get too personal.  Sure, there is going to be some mudslinging, but focus on the opponent and the platform of the opponent.  It is not presidential to let a negative campaign get personal.  This will be especially difficult with Governor Palin in the picture, but this temptation must be resisted even if she does not win the nomination.

4.  The economy needs to improve and Americans need to return to work.  If this happens, if unemployment drops below 8%, Obama will look like the hero.

5.  If health care reform and other policies continue to be unpopular, hope that these laws are struck down in the courts.  If so, both sides can claim victory and Obama can get credit for trying.

6.  Try to keep a strong left-leaning third-party challenger out of the race.  This may be the most difficult thing to do as this could require policy changes that would never be passed in the Republican Controlled House.  The name that the Obama administration should fear the most is Michael Bloomberg.  He could become the next H Ross Perot.

Strategy for the Republicans.

1.  It is critical that the GOP nominate the right person to run in 2012.  The GOP can not just nominate anyone, no matter how weak Obama may appear to be politically.  Many of the more than two dozen lack the credentials and the historical precedence to win.  Some of the names near the top of the list would not win except a (forgive the term, please, no harm intended) black swan arrives in the Obama Camp.  This list includes people like Sarah Palin, Newt Gengrich, Chris Chirstie, Ron Paul and Jon Bolton.  It's not like anyone of these people would not make a good President.  History shows that only a person with the right resume can win.  That is a governor with at least 4 years in office.

2.  Sure, the GOP can run on the poor economy if the election is held today, but have a strategy to use in case the economy improves.  Besides, there is still some GOP culpability in today's economy.  The problems began in 2006 with the GOP was in control of Congress and had the White House.

3.  The party must be united.  Immigration and Gay Rights are wedge issues for the GOP and it may be better to avoid going on the offensive on issues where the party is divided.  The TEA Party must learn to fall in line behind GOP leadership, failing to do so will lead to another 4 years of Obama.  We must learn to forget terms like RINO (Republican In Name Only).  In fighting is not what the GOP needs today.

4.  Continue to push Obama on unpopular issues and put the administration on the defensive.

5.  Campaigns go negative, but stay away from personal attacks.  Palin, Gengrich, Ron Paul and others who may be left out of the nomination should be invited to join the attack and unite behind the eventual nominee.  Put forth a united front, but the family of the President is off-limits.

How it is going now?

Obama
1.  So far, there is no serious in-party challenge.
2.  The Dems seem united right now, of course Boehner and the GOP deserve more credit for this than Obama does.
3.  As of right now, they are staying away from attacks on Governor Palin as she does not seem to be the leader.
4.  The U-3 rate has dipped below 9%, but still has a way to go.  The U-6 rate is still above 17%.  The U-6 rate includes those who have given up on looking for work and those who have taken part-time work while continuing to work.  The U-6 rate was about 9% before the current economic crisis began.  Both the U-3 rate and the U-6 rate are higher than they were when Obama took office.
5.  Health care reform is still not very popular, and now there are the actions in Libya that make Obama look not so good foreign-policy wise.  At least Bush had the approval of Congress before going into Iraq.
6.  Bloomberg looks like he is getting into the race.  That will be bad for Obama.

GOP

1.  In March, Michelle Bachmann out raised Mitt Romney in campaign cash.  If she become the GOP candidate, she will lose.  It is not because she would not make a good President, it is because a member of the House of Representatives has never defeated a sitting President.  If she were running for an open seat, we would be very high on her candidacy and giddy with the prospect that the Republicans would beat the Democrats to holy grail of nominating a woman for President.  Who is the right person, please follow this link.
2.  The economy is improving, but the recovery is at a tortoise's pace.  Unemployment is not on track to be below 8% by this time next year, but it could be.  There needs to be an alternative strategy.
3.  The GOP is not united, it will be up to the eventual nominee to unite the party.
4.  Good job at pushing Obama on the budget, but allowing the government to shut down could backfire.  There needs to be an end-strategy that will allow the government to keep functioning, but will allow the GOP to claim victory.
5.  To early to tell if the campaign will go negative.

Saturday, January 22, 2011

How do Presidential Wannabees Stack Up Against History?

There are 24 prospective candidates for the 2012 Republican Nomination.  Some have history on their side and others do not.  Here is how those prospective nominees stack up against History.

State Governors

Former state governors that have completed at least 1 term as governor, when running against an incumbent, have never lost.  However, the last time that the incumbent president was defeated by someone other than a state governor was in 1888.  Governors that have failed to unseat the incumbent had not completed their first term in office by the time they became their party's nominee for the first time: Adlai Stevenson, Thomas Dewey and Alf Landon.  Even though Stevenson and Dewey ran again 4 years later, and halfway through their second terms, they were inexperienced the first time they ran.  Therefore, history is very much on the side of the following Presidential Hopefuls:

Mike Huckabee (Former Arkansas Governor, served for over 10 years.  The final 18 months of Jim Guy Tucker's last term and for 2 full terms in his own right.)
Tim Pawlenty (Former Minnesota Governor)
Mitch Daniels (Current Indiana Governor, currently in 2nd term)Jon Huntsman, Jr (Current ambassador to China, will leave office in May.  Was halfway through 2nd term as Utah's governor when he accepted his ambassadorship.  Could become Secretary of State to a  GOP President if his White House bid fails.)
Gary E Johnson (Former New Mexico Governor, served for 2 terms.)
Mitt Romney (Former Massachusetts Governor, served for 1 term) Buddy Roemer (Former Louisiana Governor, served for 1 term)


This match-up has happened five times in recent history.  In 1992 Governor Bill Clinton unseated President George HW Bush.  In 1980 Governor Ronald Reagan defeated President Jimmy Carter.  In 1976 Governor Jimmy Carter defeated President Gerald Ford.  In 1932 Governor Franklin Roosevelt defeated President Herbert Hoover.  In 1912 Governor Woodrow Wilson defeated both President William Howard Taft and former President Theodore Roosevelt running on a 3rd party ticket.

In 1956 President David Eisenhower defeated Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson for the second time.  Stevenson was first nominated by the Democrats in 1952, just two years into office and lost to Eisenhower.  In 1948 President Harry Truman defeated Governor Thomas E Dewey.  Dewey received his first Democratic nod in 1944 only two years into his first term as New York's Governor and lost to President Franklin Roosevelt.  In 1936, the Republicans nominated Kansas Governor Alf Landon, who was just at the end of his first term in office.

In 1932, Franklin Roosevelt had only been elected as Governor of New York once, but had completed four years in office.  He took over for Al Smith when he resigned as Governor of New York to take on Hoover.  Smith also chose Roosevelt as his running mate...something that would likely not happen today.

An exception to the governor's rule is when the seat is open.  Governors have been successful in gaining an open seat, but not always.  In 1920, Senator Warren Harding defeated Governor James M Cox.  In 1988 Vice President George HW Bush defeated Governor Michael Dukakis.  In 1928 Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover defeated Governor Al Smith.  In 2000 Governor George W. Bush defeated Vice President and former Senator Al Gore.  In 1896 Governor William McKinely defeated Congressman William Jennings Bryan.  In 1884 Governor Grover Cleveland defeated Senator James G. Blaine.  In1876, the contest for the open seat was between two governors; Rutherford B Hayes from Ohio and James G Tilden from New York.  Someone had to lose that one, and it was Tilden.  In 1868 General Ulysses S Grant defeated Governor Horatio Seymour.  In all of these elections, the incumbent president either retired or was denied the nomination by his party.  When the seat is open, anything goes, the governor has won half the time.  When an experienced governor runs against an incumbent president, choose the governor.  If you include James K Polk, a state governor running for president has an overall success rate is 50%.  If the governor has successfully completed one term, the success rate is 67%.

History is not on the side of Sarah Palin, because she did not complete her first term as Governor of Alaska.  If she really wants to be the President now, she should try and get the Senate seat that Ted Stevens lost for the Republicans in 2008, which becomes up for election again in 2014 and serve the full six years.  She will still be young enough in 2020 (she will be 56) to be considered a serious candidate for the White House.  She will also then have the national political experience that she is obviously lacking now.  Scott Walker of Wisconsin, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Chris Christie of New Jersey who are all getting positive TEA Party vibes also does not have history on their side.  All are in their first term.

Religion. 

The first adherent to a religion to run for president has rarely been successful.  There are two members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints (Mormon) on the list of Governors: Jon Huntsman, Jr. and Mitt Romney.  That person is usually successful the second time they receive their party's nomination, as with Jefferson and Nixon, or if they were the second member of that faith to run.  Similar to the pattern with Kennedy (Al Smith was the first Roman Catholic to get the nod).  In recent history, both parties have had LDS men seek the nomination, but none have yet to be successful.  Romney's father, George Romney failed to get the Republican nod in 1968 and Morris Udall failed to get the Democratic nod in 1976.  Romeny, in 1968 had been the Governor of Michigan.  But lost the nomination to Nixon who was a former Vice President and the eventual winner.  Udall was a Senator from Colorado who lost the nomination to Jimmy Carter, the eventual winner.  Udall was a decedent of Mormon pioneer Jefferson Hunt, the founder of San Bernardino, California.  He was a cousin of current Utah Senator Mike Lee.  Mormon founder Joseph Smith was also running for the Democratic nomination in 1844 before he was murdered.  I am still looking so see if I can find a Roman Catholic who ran for President but did not get the party nod before Al Smith.  I am positive that there was never a Quaker who ran before Richard Nixon.  And I know that no Deist ran for president at all before Thomas Jefferson because Washington was unopposed in his elections.  Maybe Romney's father and Mo Udall already broke the ice for Mormon candidacy.

US Senate

A US Senator has not defeated an incumbent President since 1888.  It is not unheard of, but very rare and has not happened recently.  The best chance a Senator has at becoming President is when there is an open seat, as the current President's election demonstrates.  John F. Kennedy and Warren Harding also won an open seat from the Senate.  These men stand a chance if Obama's policies become unpopular, but recent history is not on their side.

Scott Brown
John Cornyn
Jim DeMint
Judd Gregg
Rick Santorum

The last time a US Senator tried to unseat the incumbent was 2004 when Senator John Kerry lost to President George W. Bush.  In 1996 Senator Bob Dole lost to President Bill Clinton.  In 1972 Senator George McGovern lost to President Richard Nixon.  In 1964 Senator Barry Goldwater lost to President Lyndon Johnson.  Before that you have to go all the way back to 1888 to find where a US Senator has challenged the incumbent president and won.  Perhaps a senator is due to win in 2012. 

Black Swan Candidates

US House of Representatives

It has been a long time since a member of the US House of Representatives has been elected to the White House without first becoming the Vice President, the governor of his stare or a Senator as was the case with George HW Bush, Richard Nixon, John F. Kennedy and others.  Sometime it is done in reverse order, such as with James K Polk who served as the Governor of Tennessee before being elected to Congress.  These people, if they are serious about the White House should consider another stop before running for President.  History is on the side of a member of the House if the current President fails to gain their party's nomination as was the case with Abraham Lincoln.

Michelle Bachmann
Newt Gingritch
Ron Paul
Mike Pence
Paul Ryan

It has been a while since a sitting member of the House was even nominated.  In 1924 Congressman John W. Davis lost to President Calvin Coolidge.  Congressman William J. Bryan lost in three tries for the White House.  The first two times to McKinley and the third time to Taft.  By the way, both men who won the Presidency directly from the US House that did not first serve in another high office have been assassinated.  Those men are Lincoln and Garfield.  These people should try for the White House the next time the seat is open or should try for a Governorship before attempting a run at the White House. 

Businessmen

Whether gaining their party's nomination or running as an independent, a very rich and businessman has never won the White House unless first elected to another office.  Examples include H Ross Perot and Wendell Wilkie.  Perot was an independent, and Wilkie won the GOP nomination.  Donald Trump may have a lot of money, but he does not have history on his side.

Supreme Court

Only once in history has a US Supreme Court Justice attempted to run for President.  Charles Hughes Evans attempted to unseat Woodrow Wilson in 1916 and lost.  In 1904 Theodore Roosevelt defeated Alton B Parker who was the Chief Judge of the New York Court of Appeals.  It was likely opposition from Tammany Hall (a very powerful political conglomerate in New York) that cost Congressman William Randolf Hearst the nomination rather than marital infidelity.  That probably was not the case until at least a decade later. Nevertheless, no judge or justice has ever won the White house whether running for an open seat of challenging an incumbent.

Cabinet Secretaries

1928 was the last time a cabinet secretary received the nomination from their party.  That man was Herbert Hoover.  But it has not been for lack of effort.  Former Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy was gunned down after winning the California Primary in 1968.  Secretary of State Al Haig's presidential campaign never got off the ground in 1988. In days of yore, when the President nominated a Secretary of State, he was signaling his intended successor.  That is how James Madison, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams and Martin van Buren made their name.  Since the Civil War Secretary of War William Howard Taft and Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover became the President.  But none of these men ever unseated an incumbent.  And a cabinet secretary has never unseated an incumbent to become the President.  Condoleeza Rice may one day become the President, but she is unlikely to be the one to unseat Obama if history is your reference.  But if Hillary Clinton gives up being Secretary of State and succeeds in taking the Democratic nod away from Obama, she does have history on her side and she has history on her side should she get the Democratic nod in 2016.

Untested by History

The following have held offices that have never received the nomination of their party for president.

Former US Ambassador to the UN--John Bolton.  Adlai Stevenson served in this office after he ran unsuccessfully twice for the Presidency and completed his time as Governor of Illinois.  Jean Kirkpatrick recieved some convention votes in 1984 for Vice President after the Democrats nominated Geraldine Ferraro, the first female on the ticket.  Otherwise, this has never even been close to a reality

Former Mayor of New York City--Rudy Guiliani.  Many of our Presidents have been former Mayors but have held another office first.  An example of such is William McKinely who was Mayor of Buffalo and then Governor of New York before becoming the President.  However, the demands of running a city as large and as unique as New York probably provides as much experience as being a state governor and the electorate may agree.  Guiliani could be the one to unseat Obama.

Sheriff Joe Arpaio of Maricopa County Arizona--We have had former presidents who were at one time in Law Enforcement; Bill Clinton was the Attorney General of Arkansas.  Theodore Roosevelt was once the Police Commissioner of New York City.  But all former cops and prosecutors have held another office before becoming the President.

Others with History on their side who are, so far, not running in 2012:
Tommy Thompson and Mike Leavitt have both served as the governor of their state and as a cabinet secretary.  Mike Johanns, who is now in the Senate has also been the Governor of Nebraska and the Secretary of Agriculture.  I would not put it past Johanns to be the nominee in 2016 if Obama wins another term or to become President in 2020 if the GOP captures the White House in 2012.  He has the most complete resume of any Republican.





What it takes to unseat a sitting US president.

It is a rare thing that a US President is defeated in his quest for a second term. The election of 2012 will be the 11th Presidential election in my lifetime. In those years, I have witnessed the defeat of the incumbent three times. The first time was when Gerald Ford lost to Jimmy Carter. The second was 4 years later when Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter. The third time was in 1992 when Bill Clinton defeated the elder George Bush. Is there a historical pattern to limiting a President to only one term? There have been 17 1 term presidents (who lived until the next election) in our history. Let's examine this issue.

Of the 17 1 term presidents 4 decided not to run for a second term due to health factors or other reasons.  Four were denied a second term because they did not secure the nomination of their party.  This has not happened since 1868.  Only 9 times in our history, the incumbent president was defeated in the General election.  Eight Presidents have died in office, 5 in their first term.  Those 5 are not included on this list.  Twenty-two presidents have earned a second term.  Factors that have contributed to the defeat of the sitting include the inability to unify his party, economic troubles, the lack of popularity for his policies, the level of personal attacks on the family of the opposition or the strength of third party contenders.

List of one-term US Presidents (Excluding those who died in office).

1.  John Adams was defeated in 1796 by sitting Vice President Thomas Jefferson who left the Federalist Party and created the Democratic Republican Party, the forerunner to the modern Democratic Party.  The Federalists were weakened by the death of George Washington and many in the party supported Adams rival for the Federalist Party nomination, Thomas Pickney.  (Factors: A.  Successor: a)
2.  John Quincy Adams lost in the election of 1828 to Andrew Jackson who resigned from the Senate four years earlier to spend the entire four years campaigning against Adams.  At times, the attacks got too personal.  One pro-Adams supporter accused the wife of Andrew Jackson of bigamy.  She died shortly after he husband took office.  Ironically, it was Jackson who set up the current convention nominating system which has prevented someone from spending the entire four years campaigning against the incumbent.  (Factors: B, D.  Successor: b)
3.  Martin Van Buren lost in his bid for a second term in 1840 because economic hardships due to the Panic of 1839 which made him an easy target for the supporters of Whig Candidate William Henry Harrison a former senator from Ohio.  (Factors: C Successor: b)
4.  John Tyler was expelled from the Whig party before the election of 1844 because of his support of Democratic policies.  Initially he tried to run as a third party candidate, but by August withdrew and threw his support behind the Democratic Candidate James K. Polk, the eventual winner.  (Factors: A Successor: c)**
5.  James K. Polk retired after only one term in office and did not seek reelection due to failing health.  His post-presidential retirement was the shortest history, lasting only 103 days.  (Factors: f  Successor: d)*
6.  Millard Fillmore was passed over by his party for the president nomination in the election of 1852 in favor of General Winnefred Scott.  Ironically, he was the last Whig to serve as president.  He joined the Know-Nothing party afterwards and carried the state of Maryland in the 1856 election.  (Factors: A Successor: b)**
7.  Franklin Pierce was defeated by his party in the election of 1856 because the disastrous Kansas-Nebraska act was signed into law and divided the party.  The issue of slavery also disintegrated the Whig party and the modern Republican party rose from the ashes nominating General John C. Fremont.  But James Buchanan won the election.  (Factors: A, B Successor: e)**
8.  James Buchanan lost his party's nomination in 1860 due to the split in the Democratic party.  This was a precursor to the Civil War.  The Northern Faction favored Senator Stephen A. Douglas and the Southern Faction preferred Vice President John C. Breckenridge.  This led to the election of Republican Abraham Lincoln.  (Factors: A and B.  Successor: f)**
9.  Andrew Johnson was impeached by Congress and was therefore unable to gain the support of his party for a presidential run in 1868.  (Factors: B. Successor: d)**
10. Rutherford B. Hayes chose to retire instead of running for a second term.  One of his campaign promises was to serve for only one term.  (Factors: G Successor: f)*
11. Chester A. Aurthur retired due to health issues and decided not to seek a second term as president after taking the office due to Garfield's assassination.  He died shortly after leaving office.   (Factors: F. Successor: c)*
12. Grover Cleveland was opposed to protectionist tariffs during his presidency and that cost him the election of 1888 to former Indiana Senator Benjamin Harrison.  This is the last time someone from the US Senate would defeat a sitting US President in the General Election.  Cleveland would be back and win a second non succesive term in 1892.  (Factors: D Successor: b)
13. Benjamin Harrison's economic policies became unpopular, even though they propelled him to office four years earlier, and there was a strong party challenge in 1892 to unseat him.  But Harrison won the nomination on the first convention ballot.  There was also a strong third party candidate, James Weaver of the Populist party who won 22 electoral votes.  This was not the difference maker as Cleveland won in a landslide, but underscored the unpopularity of the incumbent.  Harrison is the only incumbent president to lose to a former president. (Factors: A, C, D. Successor: g/c)
14. William Howard Taft was able to fend off an in-party challenge by his predecessor, Theodore Roosevelt, with support from delegates in the south; who at that time were solidly Democratic states.  Roosevelt then bolted from the GOP party and formed a third party, the Bull Moose (progressive) party because he did not believe that states that would not vote Republican should have such a say in the choice of the nominee.  Roosevelt finished the election in 2nd place behind New Jersey Governor Woodrow Wilson while Taft only carried 2 states. (Factors: A, E.  Successor: c)
15.  Herbert Hoover and the Republicans had to take the blame for the Great Depression.  In 1932, Hoover easily won the nomination of the crippled party, but lost big time in the General Election.  (Factors: C. Successor: c)
16.  Lyndon Johnson faced a backlash with many of his policies, namely the war in Vietnam, unpopular Great Society Programs and failure to control civil unrest.  The press call this a credibility gap, in that Johnson could not deliver as he had promised.  As a result, he decided not to seek another term.  The public would soon learn to accept many of Johnson's initiatives, especially in the Social arena.  Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton campaigned to keep many of the same Great Society Programs that were unpopular when Johnson initiated them.  (Factors: A, C, D, H Successor: a)  (Johnson served out the remainder of Kennedy's term--14 months--and then was elected once in his own right.)
17.  Gerald Ford was never elected as Vice President, but was appointed after the resignation of Vice President Spiro Agnew, the first such appointment, and so far the only such appointment allowed by the 22nd Amendment.  He was also unpopular for granting a pardon to his former boss, President Richard Nixon, for his role in the Watergate scandal that forced him to resign.  He was able to fight of a strong challenge for the Republican party nomination from former California Governor Ronald Reagan, but not able to win the General Election against Jimmy Carter.  (Factors: A, D.  Successor: c)
18.  Jimmy Carter had many foreign policy successes during his presidency, but in 1980, Ronald Reagan jumped all over him for one if his bigger foreign policy blunders in Iran.  Carter also had to fight off a strong in-party challenge from Edward Kennedy and had to deal with the second half of a double-dip recession.  The former California Governor won easily. (Factors: A, C.  Successor: c)
19.  George HW Bush was a popular president at the end of the first gulf war and late in 1991 appeared to be headed for an easy reelection victory as the only real challenger was an unknown governor from Arkansas.  But the cut in military spending at the end of the Cold War and Gulf War resulted in a minor recession and a strong 3rd party challenge from businessman H. Ross Perot cost Bush the vote from fiscally-conservative Republicans and "Reagan Democrats."  A primary challenge was relatively minor, but exposed a political weakness that Perot exploited.  Perot won nearly 19% of the popular vote.  Clinton, the the dark-horse from Arkansas won easily.  (Factors: A, C, E.  Successor: c)

* Denotes where the 1-term President decided not to seek another term in office.  (4 Times--Polk, Hayes, Arthur, Johnson)
**Denotes where the 1-term President sought (for a time), but did not win the nomination of his party.  (4 Times)

President's who have died in office...
1.  William Henry Harrison (Natural Causes)
2.  Zachary Taylor (Natural Causes)
3.  Abraham Lincoln (Assassination)
4.  James A Garfield (Assassination)
5.  William McKinley (Assassination) (Died in 2nd term in office)
6.  Warren G. Harding (Natural Causes)
7.  Franklin D. Roosevelt (Natural Causes) (Died during 4th term in office)
8.  John F. Kennedy (Assassination)

Questions that President Obama needs to answer in his favor by 2012.

1.  Will Obama face an Primary challenger in 2012?  Sure, there will be others that emerge, but will any of them make the Obama campaign sweat.  This is not always the kiss of death for a presidential campaign.  For Example, Lyndon Johnson won the general election easily in 1964 even though as the incumbent president, he faced a serious in-party challenge.  Harry Truman also won in spite of a strong convention challenge.  A primary challenger will simply get the President out of the Rose Garden.

2.  Will the current economic crisis be resolved by 2012?  This could be the deciding factor.  Sure, the recession is over when measuring GDP.  But unemployment remains high and foreclosures are still happening at a record pace.  This will have to be worked out by Labor Day, 2012.  If unemployment is still above 9% by then, it will not be good for Obama in November.  An ongoing economic crisis didn't hurt Franklin Roosevelt's chances in 1936, however.

3.  Will the electorate learn to appreciate Obama's policies? Some of Obama's policies, like health care reform, remain unpopular with the electorate.  In fact, they gave boost to the GOP success in the mid-term election in 2010.  If this continues to be the case, it could spell trouble for Obama in 2012.  Some past presidents have been reelected even though some of their policies were unpopular.  Most of Roosevelt's new deal was dead by 1936.  But this has been harmful to many other presidential aspirations.

4.  Will there be a left-leaning 3rd party candidate?  Chris Matthews, a left leaning pundit on MSNBC is hoping that a strong 3rd-party candidate will erode the conservative base and help Obama win in 2012.  But history shows that this is not always favorable to the President.  It all depends on who the third party challenger is.  For example, Strom Thurmond was probably part of the reason people were picking Thomas Dewey in 1948.  Ross Perot did not help George HW Bush much in 1992, but Perot did help Clinton win in 1996 with less than 50% of the popular vote.  Calvin Coolidge was not hurt at the polls by a 3rd party candidate, either.  Perot took votes away from Republicans.  It is Matthews hope that the TEA Party splits from the GOP, because that will help Obama.  But a 3rd party with more liberal leanings, like New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, could hurt the incumbent.

5.  Who will win the Republican nomination in 2012?  Will be be Huckabee, Romney, Palin or someone else.  It has been a long time since an incumbent has been defeated by someone other than a current or former state governor.  The bad news is that many contenders for the GOP have served as state governors.

Other minor factor

What if Palin is the nominee in 2012?  Her family name has been dragged in the mud by many left-leaning people in the press.  History shows that this is not a good thing for the sitting president.  In 1828, it was perhaps the deciding factor.  Even if Palin does not run in 2012, if her family continues to be attacked in the press, it will not be good for the President.

What could doom Obama's campaign in 2012?

1.  A strong primary challenge or inability to unify the party after the convention.
2.  A economy that continues to struggle, especially if employment remains high.
3.  Continued strong distrust of his domestic and foreign policy.
4.  Michael Bloomberg or another liberal-leaning 3rd party candidate.
5.  A strong nominee from the GOP.  Most likely any one of the 8 former or current state governors being mentioned who have served at least 1 term and have been reelected at least once (Huckabee, Pawlenty, Jindal, Perry, J Bush or Huntsman, for example) could be that candidate.
6.  Sarah Palin may not be the nominee in 2012, but continued attacks on her family will not help Obama.  If Sarah Palin is not the nominee, it would be best for the Obama campaign and the press that supports his candidacy to ignore the former Alaska governor and her family.

One of these factors is probably dismissible, but 2 or 3 will be a big problem.

Notes:
Factors the contribute to the defeat of the a incumbent President

A. Party disunity
B. Personal Attacks on the family of the opposing candidate
C. Economic Hardships
D. Unpopular policies
E. Strong third-party opposition

Factors that cause a sitting president not to seek re-election

F. Health
G. Political Promise
H. Other factor:, lack of party support, civil unrest, etc.

Highest office of the person defeating the sitting President in the general election

a. Vice President
b. US Senate
c. State Governor
g. Former President

Other office of the person succeeding a sitting president, on this list. The men who fit these categories took advantage of the factors that caused the incumbent president not to be nominated by his party or to withdraw hid candidacy.

d. US Army General
e. Cabinet Official
f. US House of Representatives

Thursday, January 20, 2011

The US Senate in 2012

The Republicans were not able to gain control of the Senate in 2010.  It was simply a matter of numbers.  In 2010, we elected Class 3 of the US Senate and after the 2008 election, Class 3 was the only class in the Senate with a Republican Majority.  There were not enough Democratic seats availble to be won in 2010.  There were enough to make it close, but not enough to win.  That will not be the case in 2012.

In 2012, Class 1 of the US Senate is up for election.  This is the strongest class in the Senate for the Democrats.  There are 21 Democrats, 10 Republicans and 2 Independents--who usually side with the Democrats in many critical issues.

2012 could be the year that the GOP wave reaches the Senate.  Many of the Democrats in the Senate are from "swing" states and could be volnerable.  While many of the Republicans in Class one come from "safe" Republican States.  Here is the list:

"Safe" Democrat States-13 (Current Senator)
California (Diane Fienstein - D)
Connecticut (Joe Liberman - I )*
Delaware (Don Carper - D)
Hawaii (Daniel Akaka - D)
Maine (Olympia Snowe -R)
Maryland (Ben Cardin - D)
Massachusetts (Scott Brown - R)
Michigan (Debbie Stabenow -D)
Minnesota (Amy Klobuchar - D)
New Jersey (Bob Menendez - D)
New York (Kristen Gillibrand -D)
Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse -D)
Vermont (Bernie Sanders - I)
Washington (Maria Cantwell - D)
West Virginia (Joe Manchin - D)
Wisconsin (Herb Kohl - D)

"Safe" Republican States-8 (Senator)
Arizona (Jon Kyle - R)
Mississippi (Roger Wicker - R)
Nevada (John Ensign - R)
North Dakota (Kent Conrad - D)
Tennessee (Bob Corker - R)
Texas (Kay Bailey Hutcheson - R)
Utah (Orrin Hatch - R)
Wyoming (John Barrasso - R)

Out of the "safe" states, the Democrats stand to be up by 1.  Joe Liberman will likely be replaced by a Democrat and Scott Brown will be volnerable.  For the GOP, the TEA Party will likely find a replacement for Kent Conrad.

The kicker is the swing states.  There is HUGE Republican potential and there will be some NASTY fights that on some days could take headlines away from the presidential election.

"Swing" states -9 (8 Democrat and 1 Republican)
Florida (Bill Nelson - D)
Indiana (Richard Lugar - R)
Missouri (Claire McCaskill - D)
Montana (Jon Tester - D)
Nebraska (Ben Nelson - D)
New Mexico (Jeff Bingaman - D)
Ohio (Sherrod Brown - D)
Pennsylvania (Bob Casey, Jr. - D)
Virginia (Jim Webb - D)

Out of this group, there will be an interesting battle.  Ben Nelson will likely become the biggest TEA Party target should he choose to run again.  If not, Nebraska's biggest tradition is to send their Governors to the Senate.  Both current US Senators from Nebraska are former Governors, that makes Dave Heineman the leading candidate to replace Nelson.  Any of the three Congressmen from Nebraska could also challenge Nelson.  There is also the thought that Nelson is not Democratic enough and could face a tough in-party challenge.

In Indiana, the retirement watch is out for Richard Lugar.  If he retires, he could be replaced by a Democrat, however he may face a TEA Party challenger if he decides to run again.

Florida will also be a tough battle as Republicans are lining up to take on Bill Nelson in the wake of Marco Rubio's success.  The list includes Jeb Bush.

There will also be closely watched races in Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia as Republicans try to win back seats that were lost in 2006. 

There is the potential for the Republicans to pick up 7 seats in those swing states.  This means that the Republicans have the chance to win 6 seats in the Senate that are now held by Democrats.  Likely, however, a couple of swing state Democrats will survive.  The most likely, in my opinion, is Jeff Bingaman in New Mexico.  Currently the Senate has 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans and 2 Independents.  After the 2012 Election, the Senate could have 50 Republicans, 49 Democrats and 1 Independent.  I don't see it being much better for the Republicans than this.  But that is nothing to hang your head about.

One potential GOP trouble point is Olympia Snowe in Maine.  If she retires, then a Demorcat is likely to win.  So there are problems for those of you who think that the Republicans are going to sweep to a large majority in 2012.  The reality is that it takes 6 years to take over the US Senate.  Can the TEA Party keep the momentum going through the 2014 Election?

Some safe Republicans will find some difficult in-party challenges in 2012, but these races will likley not lead to Democratic victories.  The most watched of these races will be Orrin Hatch in Utah.  (Remember that the original name of this blog is: FireOrrinHatch)  He could be challenged by Congressman Jason Chaffetz or by Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr, or by TEA Party favorite State Representative Karl Wimmer.  But I do not want to see Hatch go down like this.  I would rather see him spare himself some dignity and just retire.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

What kind of experience qualifies a person to be President?

What kind of experience qualifies a person to be President?

State Governors
Since the Civil war, it seems that Americans prefer a president who has some executive experience, particularly when the sitting president has seen his popularity go afoul.  Every unpopular president that has been unseated since 1888 has been taken out by a State Governor.  Governors, however, have not done so well when the office is open, however.  For example, in 1988, Vice President George Bush defeated Governor Michael Dukakis.  But when challenging a sitting president, when the opposing party picks a governor with at least 4 years in office and when the sitting president is struggling, they rarely lose.

Vice President
Usually when a Vice President becomes president, it is because he has taken over for a man who either has died in office or resigned.  But that is not the case with the last two elected former Vice Presidents, Bush (Sr.) and Nixon.  Before Nixon, the last one to do so was Martin Van Buren taking over for his former boss, Andrew Jackson.  Nixon is the only man who because the President after his time as Vice President passed.  In his case, it was 8 years.  Vice Presidents have usually not been successful in their bid for a second term.  Only Thomas Jefferson was elected in his own right twice.

US Senator

Of the two houses of Congress, America prefers the upper chamber as the more qualified to be President, even though the Constitution puts the lower house closer to the Presidential seat.  (Who is in line to be President after the Vice President?)  But most US Senators have not been lucky in office.  Three have died of natural causes while in office, one was assassinated and only Andrew Jackson, the first man elected from the Senate to the Presidency ever won a second term.

US House of Representatives

Only two men whose highest office was in the House of Representatives were elected to the Presidency.  Lincoln and Garfield.  Others who served in the House, like John Quincy Adams, James K. Polk and Lyndon Johnson held other offices before becoming president.  Lincoln and Garfield have one other creepy thing in common.  They were both assassinated. (I wonder if Newt knows this?)  Polk was the Speaker of the House when elected to the Presidency, but had also served as Governor of Tennessee.

The Cabinet

It used to be that when a President named his Secretary of State, he was naming his intended successor.  This was the pattern of Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe.  Other men have emerged from the cabinet to the White House.  The most recent was Hoover.  These men have all succeeded their boss, except for Buchanan.

Generals and Admirals

We have had four men move from being a high ranking US Army officer to the Presidency, like George Washington did.  3 of the four men served two terms and the other died in office.

Other officers

We have had no other offices succeed to the presidency, and many others have tried.  We have seen in our history Supreme Court Justices and Police Chiefs win their party nomination, but get defeated usually by the sitting president. Perhaps when the president is Truly popular, like Woodrow Wilson was in 1916, then the other party capitulates and nominates a nobody. 

Even if the polls are not favorable to Barrack Obama, it will take the most qualified person that the GOP can find to defeat him.  Neither James Garfield nor Abraham Lincoln defeated an incumbent president.  The last time a sitting president was defeated by someone other than a former or current state governor?  The Election of 1888 when Benjamin Harrison defeated Grover Cleveland. That election turned around in 1892 when Cleveland came back and defeated Harrison.  If the Republicans want to defeat Obama in 2012, they had better chose a Governor.

This is a list of the highest office held by Presidents of the United States:

House of Representatives (2)
Both were assassinated in office
James Garfield (Ohio)

Abraham Lincoln (Illinois) 

Generals/Admirals (Branch of Military Service) (4)
3 out of 4 served two terms, the other died in office.
Dwight Eisenhower (US Army)
Ulysses Grant (US Army)
Zachary Taylor (US Army) (Died in office)
George Washington (Continental Army) 

Cabinet Members (Office--President) (6)
Herbert Hoover (Secretary of Commerce--Coolidge) (defeated in re-election attempt)
William Howard Taft (Secretary of War--T Roosevelt) (defeated in re-election attempt)
James Buchanan (Secretary of State--Polk) (did not gain his party's renomination due to north/south split.)
John Quincy Adams (Secretary of State--Monroe) (defeated in re-election attempt)
James Monroe (Secretary of State--Madison) (2 full terms)
James Madison (Secretary of State--Jefferson) (2 full terms)

US Senators (State) (7)
Barack Obama (Illinois) (Incumbent)
John F. Kennedy (Massechusetts) (Assassinated)
Warren Harding (Ohio) (Died in office)
Benjamin Harrison (Ohio) (defeated in re-election attempt)
Franklin Pierce (New Hampshire) (did not gain party's re-nomination)
William Harrison (Ohio) (Died in office)
Andrew Jackson (Tennessee) (Served two full terms)

Vice Presidents Elected to their own term (President) (9) 
George HW Bush (Sr) (Reagan) (Defeated in re-election bid)
Richard Nixon (Eisenhower) (Elected twice but resigned during second term)
Lyndon Johnson (Kennedy)* (Decided not to run for second term)
Harry Truman (FD Roosevelt)* (Decided not to run for second term)
Calvin Coolidge (Harding)* (Decided not to run for second term)
Theodore Roosevelt (McKinley)* (Decided not to run for second term, then ran later as a 3rd party candidate and was defeated)
Martin Van Buren (Jackson) (Defeated in re-election bid)
Thomas Jefferson (J Adams)  (Elected twice and served two full terms)John Adams (Washington) (Defeated in re-election attempt)
*(Became the President when the office was vacated and then were elected in their own right afterwords.)

State Governors (State) (10)
George W Bush (Jr) (Texas)
Bill Clinton (Arkansas)
Ronald Reagan (California)
Jimmy Carter (Georgia) (1 term)
Franklin Roosevelt (New York) (Died early in his 4th term)
Woodrow Wilson (New Jersey)
William McKinley (Ohio) (Assassinated during second term)
Grover Cleveland (New York) (2 non-consecutive terms)
Rutherford Hayes (Ohio) (Declined to run for a second term due to campaign promise)
James Polk (Tennessee)  (Declined to run for a second term due to health) Note: Polk was the only House Speaker to serve as President and served as Speaker of the House immediately before his election to the Presidency.

"Caretaker" Vice Presidents--Ascended to office due to the death or resignation of the President, but never elected to their own term as President.  Only Ford received his party's nomination afterwords but Millard Fillmore was later nominated for the third-party Know-Nothing party in 1856.(5)
Gerald Ford (Nixon) (Defeated in attempt at his own term.)
Chester Arthur (Garfield) (Declined to run for office due to health)
Andrew Johnson (Lincoln) (Impeached and acquitted, then failed to win his party's nomination)
Millard Fillmore (Taylor)
John Tyler (WH Harrison)



Constitutional Amendments That are Needed.

Not all of the Balanced Budget Amendment was bad.  One part of it is needed.  It is the part that would make unfunded federal mandates to the states unconstitutional.  It reads as follows:

The Congress may not require that the states engage in activities without compensation equal to the costs.

That one sentence should be simple enough.

The second one is a line-item veto amendment.  It will give the President authority to kill appropriations without vetoing the entire bill.  It would be similar to the 1997 Line Item Act that was declared unconstitutional.  It reads as follows:

Article 1
The President has the authority to veto any addendum to any bill sent for approval by Congress, whether or not a financial appropriation is involved, that is outside the scope and intent of the overall bill approved by congress without vetoing the entire bill. 

Article 2
Congress may approve the vetoed portion as it's own bill by a two-thirds majority.

In simple language, the President may veto earmarks and congress will need a 2/3 majority to override the veto.

Naturalized Citizen Amendment.  Something that Hatch and I agree on.  Actually, there are more things we agree about than disagree.  The most prominent thing that we disagree upon is the need for him to run again.  But I digress.  This bill will allow a naturalized citizen to run for President.

A person who is a citizen of the United States, who has been for 20 years a citizen of the United States, and who is otherwise eligible to the Office of President, is not ineligible to that Office by reason of not being a native born citizen of the United States.

I do agree with term limits, but I do not support the repeal of the 17th amendment.  With term limits, the states need to have the right to allow someone to serve longer if they feel that is warranted.   The effect of the 17th amendment, which provides for the direct election of US Senators, is probably overestimated by both those who want to repeal it and those who support it.  I have a compromise that is part of term limits.

Article 1
No person may be elected to the the United States House of Representatives more than nine times nor may a person be elected to the United State Senate more than three times unless approval is first grated by the legislature of the state which they represent.  (In Plain English: 18 years in the House, 18 years in the Senate unless your state says you can stay longer.)

Article 2
The State legislature may approve the candidacy of a person to serve beyond the limits of this amendment provided that that approval is granted before the deadlines prescribed by the laws of that state.  (If the state wants you to stay longer that 18 years in your office, they must say so by the normal election deadline.)

Article 3
A member of the US House of Representatives or the US Senate may be recalled and impeached by the state that person represents for treason, high crimes or other misdemeanors or violations of the respective laws of the state they represent.  That member of Congress may be removed from office by the vote of 2/3 of the entire legislature of that state.  (States can IMPEACH and REMOVE from OFFICE any member of the Senate or House provided they have committed a crime.  Most states have a bicameral legislature, but Nebraska has a unicameral legislate, thus the words entire legislature are used.)

Article 4
All members of the US Senate are of equal rank and all members of the US House of Representatives are of equal rank.  There is no seniority in the Congress of the United States based upon the length of time served in office except for the President Pro-Tem of the Senate.  (No more special favors for the more senior members of Congress.)

Article 5
A person must be a continuous resident of the state they represent for two years before serving in the Congress of the United States and otherwise be qualified to serve in Congress as specified by this Constitution.  (You must live in your state for 2 years before you can serve in Congress.)

Article 6
Any vacancy in Congress must be filled by special election of the people, or by a regular election held within 120 days that the vacancy occurs.  Vacancies in Congress can only be filled by such elections.  (No more special appointments governors/state legislatures to fill the remainder of someone's term should they leave office early.  There must be an election to fill these seats within four months.  If a regular election occurs within those four months, that will suffice.)

Article7
The amendment shall be effective with the first Congress elected two years after approval by three fourths of the states.  Articles one and two of this amendment will not apply to any member of congress elected to his or her current seat in Congress before that time.  (This will not apply to any person serving in Congress at the time this amendment is ratified.)

Sunday, January 9, 2011

There Was One Clear Winner in the 2010 Census.

This is probably obvious to all those who follow politics, but the one clear winner in the 2010 Census was the Republican Party.  As "Red States" gained and "Blue States" lost representation.  There were 12 seats reapportioned to different states.

Texas, one of the redder states in the US picked up 4 house seats.  Florida, a swing state that leans Republican picked up 2.  While Arizona, South Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Utah and Washington picked up one seat each.  The only Blue state to pick up a seat was Washington.

New York, a blue state, and Ohio a swing state both lost 2 seats.  While Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania lost one seat each.  Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan and New Jersey are blue states; Iowa, Missouri and Pennsylvania are swing states and Louisiana is a red state.

But it gets even better for the Republicans when it comes to redistricting.  Most of the states where redistricting is needed have legislative bodies controlled by Republicans.  This means that in states that are swing states, the Republicans can draw boundaries that are favorable to their electoral chances.

Republican Controlled Redistricting States (+6)
Texas (+4)
Florida (+2)
Arizona (+1)
South Carolina (+1)
Georgia (+1)
Nevada (+1)
Utah (+1)
Ohio (-2)
Louisiana (-1)
Missouri (-1)
Pennsylvania (-1)

Democrat Controlled Redistricting States (-6)
Washington (+1)
Illinois (-1)
Iowa (-1)
Massachusetts (-1)
Michigan (-1)
New York (-2)
New Jersey (-1)

This means that the likely redistricting will result in a 6 seat gain for the GOP in the US House in 2012.  This means that if Obama wins reelection, he will have to hope that his party picks up 6 more seats in the house in addition to the 49 seat majority that the Republicans now hold.  That means that the Democrats will have to win 55 seats in Congress in 2012 with the benefit of only one new seat.

Things get a little tougher for Obama as well in 2012.  Obama won 365 electoral votes in 2008.  That number has now been reduced by 6, just through redistricting.  Texas, Arizona, South Carolina, Georgia and Utah all went to McCain in 2008.  If Obama carries the same states in 2012 that he did in 2008, he will win 359 electoral votes.  Still a majority, but the margin is slimmer.

McCain States (+6):
Texas (+4)
Arizona (+1)
South Carolina (+1)
Georgia (+1)
Utah (+1)
Louisiana (-1)
Missouri (-1)

Obama States (-6):
Florida (+2)
Nevada (+1)
Washington (+1)
Ohio (-2)
New York (-2)
Pennsylvania (-1)
Illinois (-1)
Iowa (-1)
Massachusetts (-1)
Michigan (-1)
New Jersey (-1)



Can the republican candidate, whomever that person is, win another 95 votes?  Florida would represent 29 of those 95 votes.  Other big states that the GOP has won before: Ohio 18 and Pennsylvania 20.  That is 67 votes from just those three states.  Plus count in states that McCain should have won in 2008, as these states are traditionally GOP states:  North Carolina 15, Virgina 13, Colorado 9 and Nevada 6.    That could move 111 electoral votes to the GOP and would give the Republican Candidate the victory.  There was only one state, however, where McCain won by less than a percentage point, and that was Missouri.  These eight states are where the election will center in 2012.

The clear winner in the 2010 census was the republican candidate for president, whoever that person will be.  That person will have an easier path to the White House and easier path with the GOP agenda in Congress.  Not tons of help, but enough.



By the way, unlike other portions of the Federal Government, it is not the job of the US Census to pick winners and losers.  It is just the way it works out.