The following is pure fiction.
I just got out of my time machine and here is what I saw. I traveled to the holiday season of 2016 and 2017. The financial crisis of 2008 is a memory, but we are quickly approaching the next storm as the country and world prepare for the impact of deaths of the baby boomers. A republican is preparing for inauguration day. There was a rather large and deadly earthquake somewhere in the Pacific Rim. But there was one spectacle that reminded me of March and it had nothing to do with Global Warming.
Brackets...yes it was a dream come true...the College Football Champion of 2016 was finally decided by a real playoff. Here is how it worked.
The 16 teams were chosen by each of the 11 FBS conferences having one automatic qualifier with 5 additional at-large bids. In the first round, the higher seeded team hosted the lower seeded team. All eight first-round games were sold out and took place on December 10, 2016. There were two upsets in the first round including a MAC team beating a Pac-10 school out on the coast. The game was the water-cooler talk on Monday...and generated more blogging than the new controversial Secretary of Commerce nominee.
The next weekend provided some consternation for many retailers as two rivals met in a second round game in prime time on December 17 th. One Wal-Mart in a Houston suburb puts a 3-d television at every rfid checkout and at strategic points in the store as a ploy to keep holiday shoppers from leaving to catch the overtime thriller. The other three games that Saturday were nail-biters as well.
The playoff take a week off for Christmas eve, but there is still plenty of college football. The playoffs do not end most traditional bowl games. Sure, the Insight.com bowl and the Humanitarian Bowl and six others are history, but the biggest bowls continue. The Rose Bowl matches the best Big-10 and Pac-10 teams that do not make the playoffs. The Orange, Fiesta, Sugar and Cotton bowls have their games as well. Of course, since New Years Day, 2017 is a Sunday, most of these games take place on January 2 as Sunday is left to the NFL playoffs.
The NCAA playoffs begin again on New Years Eve. These are the semi-finals. The games are played in New Orleans and Glendale, Arizona. One of the final four teams is from a mid-major conference and comes a dropped "Hail-Mary" away from the championship.
The championship game on January 7, 2017 at Dolphin Stadium in Florida and features a team from the SEC conference vs a team from the Big XII conference. Many pundits comment about the irony of a championship between the same two teams that would have played for the championship if the BCS had been allowed to continue. The debate about weather or not the playoffs were a good idea ends when the network that covers the championship announces that the advertising revenue for the 15 playoff games is more than the projected revenue for the coming Super Bowl. Somewhere in Peoria, someone pays a holiday credit card bill with his office pool winnings.
The president in the inauguration speech uses the playoff as a metaphor for his new economic stimulus plan stating..."this plan makes as much sense as a college football playoff, but people are too afraid to break tradition for something that in the long run is much better."
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
New issues for 2009
The proposed cigarette tax.
I agree with Governor Huntsman's proposal to raise the cigarette tax in Utah. But we have to be careful not to go too high. Our current cigarette tax rate is 69.5 cents per pack. The highest in the nation is New Jersey at 257.5 cents per pack. On the Doug Wright show today, they said that New York has the highest rate. The state of New York does not, but it allows counties and cities to add an addition tax. The state tax is 150 cents per pack and the city of New York adds an additional amount to allow the taxes rate well above 3 dollars per pack.
The question is how high of a tax rate will cause people to bootleg cigarettes. Here are the facts about bootlegging to consider
First, they are highly addictive. It is doubtful that someone would drive an hour in either direction and be able to last the entire journey to wherever just for a pack of cigarettes. To really be effective, it would have to be done by the carton.
Second, our neighboring states have taxes on cigarettes as well. If Utah's tax were 3 dollars per pack, you would save 2.40 per pack by driving to Wyoming.
Most of Utah's population is quite isolated. The drive to Evanston is about 70 miles. The average car gets about 20 miles per gallon on the highway. So, a person would use about 7 gallons of gas for the round trip. It would take about 7 packs to pay for the trip.
Utah has the lowest smoking per capita in the nation, that would make the opportunity for a black market on cigarettes less likely.
It would only take a box or two make the trip highly profitable. It would be a difficult temptation to avoid.
Perhaps a more modest increase would be in order.
To eliminate the sales tax on groceries, why not a restaurant tax. People who prepare the food they eat at home are generally healthier than those who do not. Almost everyone goes out to eat every now and again.
I agree with Governor Huntsman's proposal to raise the cigarette tax in Utah. But we have to be careful not to go too high. Our current cigarette tax rate is 69.5 cents per pack. The highest in the nation is New Jersey at 257.5 cents per pack. On the Doug Wright show today, they said that New York has the highest rate. The state of New York does not, but it allows counties and cities to add an addition tax. The state tax is 150 cents per pack and the city of New York adds an additional amount to allow the taxes rate well above 3 dollars per pack.
The question is how high of a tax rate will cause people to bootleg cigarettes. Here are the facts about bootlegging to consider
First, they are highly addictive. It is doubtful that someone would drive an hour in either direction and be able to last the entire journey to wherever just for a pack of cigarettes. To really be effective, it would have to be done by the carton.
Second, our neighboring states have taxes on cigarettes as well. If Utah's tax were 3 dollars per pack, you would save 2.40 per pack by driving to Wyoming.
Most of Utah's population is quite isolated. The drive to Evanston is about 70 miles. The average car gets about 20 miles per gallon on the highway. So, a person would use about 7 gallons of gas for the round trip. It would take about 7 packs to pay for the trip.
Utah has the lowest smoking per capita in the nation, that would make the opportunity for a black market on cigarettes less likely.
It would only take a box or two make the trip highly profitable. It would be a difficult temptation to avoid.
Perhaps a more modest increase would be in order.
To eliminate the sales tax on groceries, why not a restaurant tax. People who prepare the food they eat at home are generally healthier than those who do not. Almost everyone goes out to eat every now and again.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Wow, it has been almost a month.
I had one of the first cases of the flu in Davis County in Davis County this year. If you get it, you can blame me. It has been a tough couple of weeks. Due to budget cuts my shift was canceled and I will be demoted in January, but I have not been forced to take a pay-cut and I will not be laid off. So I have not been in the best of moods. Needless to say that being the highest paid person on my team is not a comfortable feeling right now. It makes me an easy target for the next round of layoffs. I will be getting my resume out.
Today, the Arena Football League announced that there will be no 2009 season. I suspect that in two to three months, it will be announced that there will no longer be an Arena Football League. Rumor has it that the WNBA will be next. (That is Women's National Basketball Association, for those of you not in the know.) I suspect that some independent baseball leagues and semi-pro leagues and perhaps some rookie leagues if not all of them will go away as well. I am hopeful that the Pioneer League will continue, but doubtful. (The Gulf Coast League seems like the low-hanging fruit, followed by the Arizona Summer League.) I am certain that the NBADL will not last the entire season. I am also concerned that Major League Soccer may not be around for 2009; but I think that there may be a contraction of at least two franchises, but not the whole league. Chivas USA is the most likely candidate for contraction. San Jose and Kansas City have unresolved stadium issues. I am confident that there will be soccer at Rio Tinto Stadium in the spring. But a lot of people are not. If all of this holds out, we will not have a pro team in Utah that is not owned by the Miller Family. (That is just the Jazz and the Bees.) The Blaze are all but gone, the Flash will be next. I am not hopeful for the Owlz or the Raptors this year. I am confident for Real, but not a lot of people are. That is 1 gone, 7 remaining and 5 in trouble.
Now, what has really been on my mind the past four weeks is the fate of our junior senator from Utah. My last couple of blogs pointed out that at least 40% of Salt Lake County voters did not vote a straight-party ticket last fall. They voted with for at least one person on each party in the top four races in the county. The success of Jason Chaffetz' campaign to unseat Chris Cannon from within the party has also sent shock waves throughout the party. That is why Mr. Bennett has began to campaign already. His real problem is at the grass-roots level of the Republican Party based upon his support of the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act and of his yes vote for the Wall Street bail-out back in October. He has managed to anger both social and fiscal conservatives. This is a hard thing for a Republican to do in Utah. It all depends on who ponies up to run against him in 2010 and if the economy rebounds by then.
Why should Bennett retire? 1. There are several good candidates in the Republican Party here in Utah that would represent this state well in Washington DC if Mr. Bennett would only step aside. This men and women will not run against him. 2. His Seniority in the Senate means nothing when the other party holds such a strong majority. 3. He will get a strong in-party challenge from someone. 4. When the Donks are only 2 seats away from an over-ride proof majority, they are bound to find someone who is vulnerable and work for the next two years to defeat that person. Look at what happened to Ted Stevens. 5. He said that he would only run for two terms in 1992. He should have kept his promise and retired in 2004.
The economy needs to rebound, but that has been building for a long time. If you want to blame the Republicans...well you are correct to do so. If you want to blame the democrats...you are also correct. The fault lies with just about all of us. We are all going to have to sacrifice to make it work.
Today, the Arena Football League announced that there will be no 2009 season. I suspect that in two to three months, it will be announced that there will no longer be an Arena Football League. Rumor has it that the WNBA will be next. (That is Women's National Basketball Association, for those of you not in the know.) I suspect that some independent baseball leagues and semi-pro leagues and perhaps some rookie leagues if not all of them will go away as well. I am hopeful that the Pioneer League will continue, but doubtful. (The Gulf Coast League seems like the low-hanging fruit, followed by the Arizona Summer League.) I am certain that the NBADL will not last the entire season. I am also concerned that Major League Soccer may not be around for 2009; but I think that there may be a contraction of at least two franchises, but not the whole league. Chivas USA is the most likely candidate for contraction. San Jose and Kansas City have unresolved stadium issues. I am confident that there will be soccer at Rio Tinto Stadium in the spring. But a lot of people are not. If all of this holds out, we will not have a pro team in Utah that is not owned by the Miller Family. (That is just the Jazz and the Bees.) The Blaze are all but gone, the Flash will be next. I am not hopeful for the Owlz or the Raptors this year. I am confident for Real, but not a lot of people are. That is 1 gone, 7 remaining and 5 in trouble.
Now, what has really been on my mind the past four weeks is the fate of our junior senator from Utah. My last couple of blogs pointed out that at least 40% of Salt Lake County voters did not vote a straight-party ticket last fall. They voted with for at least one person on each party in the top four races in the county. The success of Jason Chaffetz' campaign to unseat Chris Cannon from within the party has also sent shock waves throughout the party. That is why Mr. Bennett has began to campaign already. His real problem is at the grass-roots level of the Republican Party based upon his support of the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act and of his yes vote for the Wall Street bail-out back in October. He has managed to anger both social and fiscal conservatives. This is a hard thing for a Republican to do in Utah. It all depends on who ponies up to run against him in 2010 and if the economy rebounds by then.
Why should Bennett retire? 1. There are several good candidates in the Republican Party here in Utah that would represent this state well in Washington DC if Mr. Bennett would only step aside. This men and women will not run against him. 2. His Seniority in the Senate means nothing when the other party holds such a strong majority. 3. He will get a strong in-party challenge from someone. 4. When the Donks are only 2 seats away from an over-ride proof majority, they are bound to find someone who is vulnerable and work for the next two years to defeat that person. Look at what happened to Ted Stevens. 5. He said that he would only run for two terms in 1992. He should have kept his promise and retired in 2004.
The economy needs to rebound, but that has been building for a long time. If you want to blame the Republicans...well you are correct to do so. If you want to blame the democrats...you are also correct. The fault lies with just about all of us. We are all going to have to sacrifice to make it work.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
More analysis of Bob Bennett's Chances.
Does Bennett have a chance at winning again in 2010? The other day, I pointed out that 15% of Salt Lake County voters chose John McCain for President and Peter Caroon for SL County Mayor. But there was also a significant percentage of SL county voters that voted for Barack Obama for President and John Huntsman, Jr for Utah Governor. About 21% to be exact. Huntsman won about 70% of the vote in SL county. He also won in Summit and Grand county...where Barrack Obama won. And he even won in Carbon and Emery county--traditional Democrat counties in Utah.
I would say that Huntsman is at least as popular in Utah as Palin is in Alaska. We will see if his popularity holds out when the economic tsunami finally arrives at the Wasatch Front. I expect that if Utah handles this well, Huntsman will still be popular in 2012.
Under normal circumstances, you could use the governors race to predict the senate race. But Huntsman is an anomaly. The voter turnout in Utah was so high that you may not want to use any race to predict Bennett's chances in 2010. But the races of the three congressional disticts may be the best predictor. Here is what we have...
District 1
Bishop (R) 186,031 Bowen (D) 87,139
District 2
Dew (R) 111,696 Matheson (D) 204,268
District 3
Chaffetz (R) 171,936 Spencer (D) 73,294
Total GOP 469,663 Total Dem 364,701
56.29% 43.71%
If the Dems nominate the right person, they have a chance. If they nominate the type of person they usually nominate for Senate in Utah--such a Bob Springmyer, they couldn't beat Ted Stevens. One of the problems with the Democratic party in Utah is that they don't recognize an opening when they see one.
Also of note. Weber and Davis county have close to the same population. Davis county cast about 45,000 more ballots. This is the most ponderous statistic of the election.
http://www.electionresults.utah.gov/xmlData/main.html
I would say that Huntsman is at least as popular in Utah as Palin is in Alaska. We will see if his popularity holds out when the economic tsunami finally arrives at the Wasatch Front. I expect that if Utah handles this well, Huntsman will still be popular in 2012.
Under normal circumstances, you could use the governors race to predict the senate race. But Huntsman is an anomaly. The voter turnout in Utah was so high that you may not want to use any race to predict Bennett's chances in 2010. But the races of the three congressional disticts may be the best predictor. Here is what we have...
District 1
Bishop (R) 186,031 Bowen (D) 87,139
District 2
Dew (R) 111,696 Matheson (D) 204,268
District 3
Chaffetz (R) 171,936 Spencer (D) 73,294
Total GOP 469,663 Total Dem 364,701
56.29% 43.71%
If the Dems nominate the right person, they have a chance. If they nominate the type of person they usually nominate for Senate in Utah--such a Bob Springmyer, they couldn't beat Ted Stevens. One of the problems with the Democratic party in Utah is that they don't recognize an opening when they see one.
Also of note. Weber and Davis county have close to the same population. Davis county cast about 45,000 more ballots. This is the most ponderous statistic of the election.
http://www.electionresults.utah.gov/xmlData/main.html
Sunday, November 16, 2008
The Election of 2010
A lot of people are focusing on the election of 2012. But there are the mid-term elections coming in just two year. Every member of the house is up for re-election as well as 1/3 of the senate. This includes our junior senator in Utah, Bob Bennett. Mr. Bennett, who has been representing our state for 16 years, wants Utahans to send him to Washington for a fourth term. I am shaking my head at the idea that our JUNIOR senator is seriously thinking of a 4th term.
But the writing is on the wall for Mr. Bennett. Why do I think so?
-15% of Salt Lake County residents voted for John McCain for President and Peter Caroon for Salt Lake County Mayor.
-Salt Lake County is about 45% of the population in Utah.
-With the Democrats close to getting 60 senators, they will likely through a lot of money at 3 or 4 winnable senate races.
-Obama did better in Utah than any Democrat since LBJ. The dems have some momentum.
-Bennett lost a lot of grass roots support in Utah for backing comprehensive immigration reform...and then reporting to the state organization convention that the failure was due to the labor unions. (Come on...guest workers won't unionize? Are you kidding me?)
-Bennett supported the bank bailout that was passed before the election. No exactly the fiscally conservative thing to do.
-Utah had a non-seen-in-decades 68% voter turnout in 2008. We will be lucky to get 25% voter turn-out in a mid-term election.
Reasons why Bennett is not in trouble.
-Utah is a GOP state and even the most popular democrat can not beat him in a statewide race.
-A Democrat could win Salt Lake County, but this is a state-wide race and there is no electoral system. There is no way a Democrat could win Utah, Davis or Cache county. McCain still won over 60% of the vote in Utah.
-Utah had a non-seen-in-decades 68% voter turnout in 2008. We will be lucky to get 25% voter turn-out in a mid-term election.
My analysis.
Bennett is in trouble because his support has eroded at the grass-roots level in the GOP party. His support of comprehensive immigration reform cost him a lot of that support. He was heckled at the state GOP organizing convention in 2007 because of this. His support of the bail-out plan will not help.
Bennett is likely to have the same kind of fight in the convention and primary that sank Chris Cannon this year. Right now, however, I do not know of anyone that is bold enough to make the move. Certainly, some GOP insider has seen this opening. There may be another Jason Chaffetz out there ready to make the move. If you know of someone, let me know. Micheal Ridgeway need not apply. He is no Jason Chaffetz.
It may depend on who emerges as an Democratic opponent. Peter Caroon, currently the Salt Lake County mayor is one who's star is rising. Jim Matheson may decide that he wants to move to the upper house. But it will need to be someone who has that kind of name recognition. But I must admit that Caroon scares me the most. He could be the more fiscal conservative on the ballot against Bennett. Matheson could also look more fiscally conservative than Bennett. Caroon was the one that almost killed the Real Salt Lake Stadium deal. Matheson joined Bishop in voting against the banking bailout.
If Bennet were to decide not to run in 2010, there are a number of GOP contenders that could take his place. Perhaps Governor Huntsman would like to run for the Senate in 2010. (Although some would like him to run for the big seat at the other end of Pennsylvania Ave.) Others that come to mind would be Lt. Gov Herbert. State senate president John Valentine ran unopposed. Enid Greene could complete her comback by getting to the Senate. But none of these people would ever run against Bennett if he decides to run for a 4th term. The GOP would certainly get a weaker candidate if Bennett has to face a challenge from within the party in 2010. Bennett should do the honorable thing and retire.
But the writing is on the wall for Mr. Bennett. Why do I think so?
-15% of Salt Lake County residents voted for John McCain for President and Peter Caroon for Salt Lake County Mayor.
-Salt Lake County is about 45% of the population in Utah.
-With the Democrats close to getting 60 senators, they will likely through a lot of money at 3 or 4 winnable senate races.
-Obama did better in Utah than any Democrat since LBJ. The dems have some momentum.
-Bennett lost a lot of grass roots support in Utah for backing comprehensive immigration reform...and then reporting to the state organization convention that the failure was due to the labor unions. (Come on...guest workers won't unionize? Are you kidding me?)
-Bennett supported the bank bailout that was passed before the election. No exactly the fiscally conservative thing to do.
-Utah had a non-seen-in-decades 68% voter turnout in 2008. We will be lucky to get 25% voter turn-out in a mid-term election.
Reasons why Bennett is not in trouble.
-Utah is a GOP state and even the most popular democrat can not beat him in a statewide race.
-A Democrat could win Salt Lake County, but this is a state-wide race and there is no electoral system. There is no way a Democrat could win Utah, Davis or Cache county. McCain still won over 60% of the vote in Utah.
-Utah had a non-seen-in-decades 68% voter turnout in 2008. We will be lucky to get 25% voter turn-out in a mid-term election.
My analysis.
Bennett is in trouble because his support has eroded at the grass-roots level in the GOP party. His support of comprehensive immigration reform cost him a lot of that support. He was heckled at the state GOP organizing convention in 2007 because of this. His support of the bail-out plan will not help.
Bennett is likely to have the same kind of fight in the convention and primary that sank Chris Cannon this year. Right now, however, I do not know of anyone that is bold enough to make the move. Certainly, some GOP insider has seen this opening. There may be another Jason Chaffetz out there ready to make the move. If you know of someone, let me know. Micheal Ridgeway need not apply. He is no Jason Chaffetz.
It may depend on who emerges as an Democratic opponent. Peter Caroon, currently the Salt Lake County mayor is one who's star is rising. Jim Matheson may decide that he wants to move to the upper house. But it will need to be someone who has that kind of name recognition. But I must admit that Caroon scares me the most. He could be the more fiscal conservative on the ballot against Bennett. Matheson could also look more fiscally conservative than Bennett. Caroon was the one that almost killed the Real Salt Lake Stadium deal. Matheson joined Bishop in voting against the banking bailout.
If Bennet were to decide not to run in 2010, there are a number of GOP contenders that could take his place. Perhaps Governor Huntsman would like to run for the Senate in 2010. (Although some would like him to run for the big seat at the other end of Pennsylvania Ave.) Others that come to mind would be Lt. Gov Herbert. State senate president John Valentine ran unopposed. Enid Greene could complete her comback by getting to the Senate. But none of these people would ever run against Bennett if he decides to run for a 4th term. The GOP would certainly get a weaker candidate if Bennett has to face a challenge from within the party in 2010. Bennett should do the honorable thing and retire.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
National Election at a Local Level
You may have heard that Barack Obama won Salt Lake County. He did not. Obama did carry two of Utah's counties...Summit and Grand. The counties that people from other states have settled...or the counties in Utah that have been "californicated."
Salt Lake County, even in the height of Reagn popularity was a stronghold for the Democratic Party. That county is not a Democratic as it used to be. Carbon and Emery counties are also not as democratic as they used to be. The GSENM controversy cost the donkies in that part of the state.
Here in Utah, we had a record voter turn-out, and unless your name is Matheson or Curtis or you are on the SL county council, it was good to be a Republican. But there are storm clouds on the horizon, and some long-held GOP seats are in danger.
More on that later.
Salt Lake County, even in the height of Reagn popularity was a stronghold for the Democratic Party. That county is not a Democratic as it used to be. Carbon and Emery counties are also not as democratic as they used to be. The GSENM controversy cost the donkies in that part of the state.
Here in Utah, we had a record voter turn-out, and unless your name is Matheson or Curtis or you are on the SL county council, it was good to be a Republican. But there are storm clouds on the horizon, and some long-held GOP seats are in danger.
More on that later.
Friday, November 7, 2008
The rumors of my death have been greatly....
Of course I am not dead. I have been working on my Masters Degree and moving. I have not had a lot of time for blogging until right up to the election.
The rumor of death that I would like to address is the rumor of the death of the Reagan Conservative Movement...as it is called by some.
Obama won. McCain ran probably the worst Presidential campaign since McGovern. (That was the Watergate Election, for those of you too young to remember.) In spite of how pessimistic the McCain campaign was, McCain still ended winning 162 electoral votes and he carried 21 states. Think about all that has happened in the last 3 months. This was much better than expected. Republicans and Conservatives should be overjoyed.
Congress. The Democrats still do not have a filler buster proof majority.
Governorships. The Dems only gained one new governorship.
Ballot initiatives. The only state-wide ballot initiative that the conservative movement lost was the physician assisted suicide bill in the state of Washington. This is more a debate of medical ethics, in my mind, than it is a debate about conservatism.
One lesson that the Religious Right had better learn from this election is an appreciation of who their allies are. Many were opposed to Mitt Romney simply because of his religion. This was not the reason that Obama won. As I said, McCain ran a lousy and embarrassing campaign. But look at this news story and remember that this protest took place in Salt Lake City and it was about an ballot issue in California. But the election would have been closer had Mitt Romney been on the final ballot.
http://www.ksl.com/?nid=148&sid=4728411
Learn this lesson well, and the pendulum will swing back our way when the economy does.
The rumor of death that I would like to address is the rumor of the death of the Reagan Conservative Movement...as it is called by some.
Obama won. McCain ran probably the worst Presidential campaign since McGovern. (That was the Watergate Election, for those of you too young to remember.) In spite of how pessimistic the McCain campaign was, McCain still ended winning 162 electoral votes and he carried 21 states. Think about all that has happened in the last 3 months. This was much better than expected. Republicans and Conservatives should be overjoyed.
Congress. The Democrats still do not have a filler buster proof majority.
Governorships. The Dems only gained one new governorship.
Ballot initiatives. The only state-wide ballot initiative that the conservative movement lost was the physician assisted suicide bill in the state of Washington. This is more a debate of medical ethics, in my mind, than it is a debate about conservatism.
One lesson that the Religious Right had better learn from this election is an appreciation of who their allies are. Many were opposed to Mitt Romney simply because of his religion. This was not the reason that Obama won. As I said, McCain ran a lousy and embarrassing campaign. But look at this news story and remember that this protest took place in Salt Lake City and it was about an ballot issue in California. But the election would have been closer had Mitt Romney been on the final ballot.
http://www.ksl.com/?nid=148&sid=4728411
Learn this lesson well, and the pendulum will swing back our way when the economy does.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
The election of 2008...the day after.
There is a lot of analysis out there as to why Obama won. Tonight I list one that I agree with and one that I disagree with.
The one I agree with.
Mr. Optimism. I do not remember a lot about the election of 1976, but I have a good recollection of every election since. It seems that in every election that I can remember the candidate for President that displays the greater amount of optimism wins. The only election that comes close to being an exception to this is 1988. Bush (GHWB) went negative on Dukakis and he did not know how to respond.
When I read this theory in Newsweek on line today, I found myself taken back to the scene in "Back to the Future Part II." Marty McFly (Michael J. Fox) enters "Cafe 80's" and is greeted by a Ronald Reagan hologram which says, "Welcome to Cafe 80's where it is always m-m-m-morning in America." Ronald Reagan usually had that smile on his face when he spoke and was the picture of American Optimism. Bill Clinton was Mr. Optimism in 1992 when GHWB did not know how to react to the minor recession of the early 90s. W was more optimistic than Mr. Inconvinient Truth and Mr. Swift Boat.
The one I disagree with:
Sarah Palin. She is the "Not Ready for Prime Time" VP candidate. But the reason I disagree is this--I dare you to name someone better. Most Utahans will say, Mitt. How would Mitt have been better for McCain. Palin energized the GOP base...the "babies, guns and Jesus" crowd. Mitt would have had trouble, once again his religion would have been the issue. Most of the other potential VP candidates would have brought some baggage to the McCain campaign.
Condie--Too close to Bush.
Mitt--Religion
Crist--Family (Divorced since 1980...in a "very long engagement" nudge, nugde...)
Pawlenty--Experience
Jindal--Experience
Perry--Bush
Huntsman--Religion and Region
Lamb--Region
Rasicot--Bush and Region
Liberman--Party and been there done that.
Hutcheson--Senator and age and Texas (Bush).
I just do not think that McCain could have picked someone else. He picked the best choice available to him. The biggest liability to McCains campaign was George W Bush.
Huntsman for President.
John M Huntsman, Jr could be a good challenger for Obama in 2012. Why? Many of us here in Utah are saying, "recession, what recession?" We are feeling it here in the Beehive State. The banking industry has a foothold in the state, but most of the banking is inustrial. My company is growing here in Utah even though they are struggling world-wide. Utah is bucking many trends. Huntsman is every bit as popular in his own state and Palin is in her own state. But Huntsman has done it without taxing business and giving gifts to citizens. And Utah is one of the few states where the Republicans had sweeping victories.
Huntsman has some of the same liabilities that Mitt had. He is the grandson of the late LDS leader David B. Haight. Hopefully, one of the lessons that the religious right learned in this election is that Mormons can help their cause. Look at what the LDS church did for Prop 8.
Another problem for Huntsman is that he is a bit on the green side for a Republican. This may not play to well for some Republicans, especially when compared to Palin. It does not play well for some here in Utah. (This former Boy Scout has little problem with how he is doing it.) But again, I challenge you to find someone better.
Huntsman is also a very optomistic person. I think that many have set the bar too high for Obama and some of that optomism may wear off in four years. If this is the case, I think that Utah's governor could be the next President of the United States.
Oh yeah, there is one more problem. Mary Kay has to say give her OK. She does not like campaigning. I think it will be harder for us to convince her, than it will be to convince him.
The one I agree with.
Mr. Optimism. I do not remember a lot about the election of 1976, but I have a good recollection of every election since. It seems that in every election that I can remember the candidate for President that displays the greater amount of optimism wins. The only election that comes close to being an exception to this is 1988. Bush (GHWB) went negative on Dukakis and he did not know how to respond.
When I read this theory in Newsweek on line today, I found myself taken back to the scene in "Back to the Future Part II." Marty McFly (Michael J. Fox) enters "Cafe 80's" and is greeted by a Ronald Reagan hologram which says, "Welcome to Cafe 80's where it is always m-m-m-morning in America." Ronald Reagan usually had that smile on his face when he spoke and was the picture of American Optimism. Bill Clinton was Mr. Optimism in 1992 when GHWB did not know how to react to the minor recession of the early 90s. W was more optimistic than Mr. Inconvinient Truth and Mr. Swift Boat.
The one I disagree with:
Sarah Palin. She is the "Not Ready for Prime Time" VP candidate. But the reason I disagree is this--I dare you to name someone better. Most Utahans will say, Mitt. How would Mitt have been better for McCain. Palin energized the GOP base...the "babies, guns and Jesus" crowd. Mitt would have had trouble, once again his religion would have been the issue. Most of the other potential VP candidates would have brought some baggage to the McCain campaign.
Condie--Too close to Bush.
Mitt--Religion
Crist--Family (Divorced since 1980...in a "very long engagement" nudge, nugde...)
Pawlenty--Experience
Jindal--Experience
Perry--Bush
Huntsman--Religion and Region
Lamb--Region
Rasicot--Bush and Region
Liberman--Party and been there done that.
Hutcheson--Senator and age and Texas (Bush).
I just do not think that McCain could have picked someone else. He picked the best choice available to him. The biggest liability to McCains campaign was George W Bush.
Huntsman for President.
John M Huntsman, Jr could be a good challenger for Obama in 2012. Why? Many of us here in Utah are saying, "recession, what recession?" We are feeling it here in the Beehive State. The banking industry has a foothold in the state, but most of the banking is inustrial. My company is growing here in Utah even though they are struggling world-wide. Utah is bucking many trends. Huntsman is every bit as popular in his own state and Palin is in her own state. But Huntsman has done it without taxing business and giving gifts to citizens. And Utah is one of the few states where the Republicans had sweeping victories.
Huntsman has some of the same liabilities that Mitt had. He is the grandson of the late LDS leader David B. Haight. Hopefully, one of the lessons that the religious right learned in this election is that Mormons can help their cause. Look at what the LDS church did for Prop 8.
Another problem for Huntsman is that he is a bit on the green side for a Republican. This may not play to well for some Republicans, especially when compared to Palin. It does not play well for some here in Utah. (This former Boy Scout has little problem with how he is doing it.) But again, I challenge you to find someone better.
Huntsman is also a very optomistic person. I think that many have set the bar too high for Obama and some of that optomism may wear off in four years. If this is the case, I think that Utah's governor could be the next President of the United States.
Oh yeah, there is one more problem. Mary Kay has to say give her OK. She does not like campaigning. I think it will be harder for us to convince her, than it will be to convince him.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
The 7 Deadly Sins of the GOP.
It's over. Congratulations to President Elect Barack Obama. It's alright to cry.
This election was not lost in the past 3 months. I was lost about 3 years ago, in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. It was then that Republicans in Congress and George W. Bush fell away from their principles. It was then that the GOP congress abandoned the President and it was then that the President abandoned Congress. It was then that I sat here at my computer and sent an email to Senator Hatch and Senator Bennett asking them to support the embattled President. Senator Hatch did not reply. Senator Bennett told me it was the President who abandoned the GOP and caved to media pressure.
I have learned the hard way that when you give into pride, lust, greed, gluttony, sloth, deceit and envy that there is only so much that any government, church, company or individual can do for you. Republicans need to learn these lessons from this election. Democrats never will.
Regular readers of this blog know that it is our two distinguished Utah senators that I have dedicated this blog to...in the hopes that if they go the way of Ted Stevens that they will be replaced by Republicans. Here are the 7 deadly sins that Republicans and Americans have fallen prey to and why we need avoid the temptation to step aside.
1. Pride. I am not speaking about being proud of your kids for making the honor roll. (BTW--I am proud of my kid for making the honor roll. Good job, Emma!) But being to proud to make needed changes. Limbaugh, Hanity, Ingram and others have progclaimed themselves Reagan Republicans and espoused ideas that would embarrass Mr. Reagan...such as the most unforgiving type of immigration reform. Ronald Reagan would have never been elected if he was as conservative as Rush claims he was. We need to be true to priciples, but we also need to adapt to the changing times.
2. Envy. We are envious of the popularity that some democrats get by throwing around tax money that we begin to do it as well. We do not need that type of popularity. We will be elected again by being true fiscal conservatives. By maintianing the belief that government money is not the solution to evry problem in the known universe, we will gain power agian.
3. Glottony. To have true health care reform, the providers and the provider system will need to make changes, the government will need to make changes, the insurance industry will need to make changes and the people will need to make changes. Free health care is a myth. They do not have free health care in Canada, England, France, Sweeden or anywhere else. Someone pays. Sooner or later we will have to face the fact that if America keeps getting fatter, America will loose and America will pay.
4. Sloth. America became a super power because Americans worked. I bounced from job to job for my first five years out of college. I was able to hold down a steady job for the last six years because I had an epiphany. I realized that I had to work. I do not like my company, but I don't have to. If I fall in love with my company, it will never love me back. I like the fact that I have a job and a paycheck. I love the type of work. I like what money provides for my family. Someone once said if your love your job, you will never work a day in your life. IT'S A BIG LIE. You have to work and it is not fun. We do not call it fun, or vacation or play, we call it work for a reason. Let's not reward people who do not work.
5. Greed. Why did the markets crash a few weeks ago? Fuel was too expesnive, housing was too expensive, food was too expensive. Wages have not increased very much over the past decade. Companies were making insane profits and not passing the loot on to the people who make it all happen. It had to come crashing down. Republicans got the blame for this one because of who is in the White House right now. If Gore or Kerry were in office, the dems would have been blamed.
6. Lust. When you claim to be the morally superior party, you have to be morally superior. Dems can get away with sex scandals, but GOPs can not.
7. Deceit. There are still some provisions of the Contract with America that have not passed. Specifically term limits and the BBA. If you say you are going to leave Congress after 12 years, Mr Hatch and Mr Bennett, keep that promise.
Huntsman 2012!
This election was not lost in the past 3 months. I was lost about 3 years ago, in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. It was then that Republicans in Congress and George W. Bush fell away from their principles. It was then that the GOP congress abandoned the President and it was then that the President abandoned Congress. It was then that I sat here at my computer and sent an email to Senator Hatch and Senator Bennett asking them to support the embattled President. Senator Hatch did not reply. Senator Bennett told me it was the President who abandoned the GOP and caved to media pressure.
I have learned the hard way that when you give into pride, lust, greed, gluttony, sloth, deceit and envy that there is only so much that any government, church, company or individual can do for you. Republicans need to learn these lessons from this election. Democrats never will.
Regular readers of this blog know that it is our two distinguished Utah senators that I have dedicated this blog to...in the hopes that if they go the way of Ted Stevens that they will be replaced by Republicans. Here are the 7 deadly sins that Republicans and Americans have fallen prey to and why we need avoid the temptation to step aside.
1. Pride. I am not speaking about being proud of your kids for making the honor roll. (BTW--I am proud of my kid for making the honor roll. Good job, Emma!) But being to proud to make needed changes. Limbaugh, Hanity, Ingram and others have progclaimed themselves Reagan Republicans and espoused ideas that would embarrass Mr. Reagan...such as the most unforgiving type of immigration reform. Ronald Reagan would have never been elected if he was as conservative as Rush claims he was. We need to be true to priciples, but we also need to adapt to the changing times.
2. Envy. We are envious of the popularity that some democrats get by throwing around tax money that we begin to do it as well. We do not need that type of popularity. We will be elected again by being true fiscal conservatives. By maintianing the belief that government money is not the solution to evry problem in the known universe, we will gain power agian.
3. Glottony. To have true health care reform, the providers and the provider system will need to make changes, the government will need to make changes, the insurance industry will need to make changes and the people will need to make changes. Free health care is a myth. They do not have free health care in Canada, England, France, Sweeden or anywhere else. Someone pays. Sooner or later we will have to face the fact that if America keeps getting fatter, America will loose and America will pay.
4. Sloth. America became a super power because Americans worked. I bounced from job to job for my first five years out of college. I was able to hold down a steady job for the last six years because I had an epiphany. I realized that I had to work. I do not like my company, but I don't have to. If I fall in love with my company, it will never love me back. I like the fact that I have a job and a paycheck. I love the type of work. I like what money provides for my family. Someone once said if your love your job, you will never work a day in your life. IT'S A BIG LIE. You have to work and it is not fun. We do not call it fun, or vacation or play, we call it work for a reason. Let's not reward people who do not work.
5. Greed. Why did the markets crash a few weeks ago? Fuel was too expesnive, housing was too expensive, food was too expensive. Wages have not increased very much over the past decade. Companies were making insane profits and not passing the loot on to the people who make it all happen. It had to come crashing down. Republicans got the blame for this one because of who is in the White House right now. If Gore or Kerry were in office, the dems would have been blamed.
6. Lust. When you claim to be the morally superior party, you have to be morally superior. Dems can get away with sex scandals, but GOPs can not.
7. Deceit. There are still some provisions of the Contract with America that have not passed. Specifically term limits and the BBA. If you say you are going to leave Congress after 12 years, Mr Hatch and Mr Bennett, keep that promise.
Huntsman 2012!
Monday, November 3, 2008
Election Day Thoughts
It is about an hour before midnight on election eve. In about 8 hours, I will cast my vote for the year. I have come to terms with the reality that the person I will vote for to be the next president will likely loose this election. It is a sobering thought.
I have two planned blogs...one if McCain wins and one if Obama does.
I will give Obama a chance if he wins. I will not gloat if he does not succeed.
I give either man only a chance at one term for the following reasons.
-This economy will take 3 to 5 years to recover. It will not be enough time for the next president to look successful. There will even be many pundits who will say that the new president has made it worse. I have one thing to say to these people...it's congress and not our president who controls fiscal policy.
-Expectations are too high for Obama.
-McCain DOES look old and feeble. In retrospect, McCain should be the outgoing president not running for office right now.
Please vote, even if your guy will not win.
The next four years for me, regardless of who wins this presidential election will be about getting new republican senators from the State of Utah.
I have two planned blogs...one if McCain wins and one if Obama does.
I will give Obama a chance if he wins. I will not gloat if he does not succeed.
I give either man only a chance at one term for the following reasons.
-This economy will take 3 to 5 years to recover. It will not be enough time for the next president to look successful. There will even be many pundits who will say that the new president has made it worse. I have one thing to say to these people...it's congress and not our president who controls fiscal policy.
-Expectations are too high for Obama.
-McCain DOES look old and feeble. In retrospect, McCain should be the outgoing president not running for office right now.
Please vote, even if your guy will not win.
The next four years for me, regardless of who wins this presidential election will be about getting new republican senators from the State of Utah.
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