Romney 563
Santorum 262
Gingrich 135
Paul 51
That was the count before Louisiana, where Romney was awarded 5 delegates and Santorum was awarded 10 and 31 delegates were left unallocated.
Going into the April 3 primaries, the count was
Romney 568
Santorum 272
Gingrich 135
Paul 51
Huntsman 2
Unallocated 74
Left in play 1260
Total 2288
There are 1144 delegates needed for the GOP nod.
Romney needed 576 delegates or 45.7% of the remaining delegates
Santorum needed 872 delegates or 76.2% of the remaining delegates
Gingrich needed 1009 delegates or 80.8% of the remaining delegates
Paul needed 1093 delegates or 86.7% of the remaining delegates
To force a brokered convention, Santorum, Gingrich and Paul needed a collective total of 738 of the remaining delegates or 58.5% of the remaining delegates
So far on April 3, here are the totals
DC Romney 18, Unallocated 1
MD Romney 37
WI Romney 33, Santorum 9
Now the count is
Romney 658
Santorum 281
Gingrich 135
Paul 51
Huntsman 2
Unallocated 74
Left in play 1160
Total 2288
Romney needs 464 of the remaining delegates to win the nomination or 40.0% of those remaining.
Santorum still needs 863 delegates, but now that represents 74.4% of those remaining.
Gingrich still needs 1009 delegates, but now that number represents 87.0% of those remaining.
Paul still needs 1093 delegates, but now that number represents 94.2% of those remaining.
To force a brokered convention, Santorum, Gingrich and Paul need a collective total of 696 delegates, or 60% of the remaining delegates.
The next primaries are on April 24.
Connecticut 28
Delaware 17
New York 94
Pennsylvania 71
Rhode Island 16
There are 226 delegates up for grabs. This means there could be as few as 934 delegates left after April 24. This means that some candidates will need to win some significant delegates to remain in the race.
Ron Paul must win 137 delegates on April 24 to remain in the race, or 60.6% of those up for grabs on April 24, or he is out of contention.
Newt Gingrich must win 54 delegates on April 24 to remain in the race, or 23.9% of those up for grabs on April 24. There may be enough unallocated delegates for Newt to stay in the race.
Could April 24 be the knock-out punch for Romney? Mitt Romney really needs to win 60% of the delegates, or 136, on April 24 to knock out Santorum. Pennsylvania is a winner take all state, and Santorum's home state. Romney would have to win 88% of the delegates outside of PA to make Santorum go away. If Romney wins Pennsylvania, then the nomination should be his. Any candidate that can not win his home state in the primary election probably would not be able to win his home state in the General election.
Pennsylvania is a do-or-die state for Santorum, but he must make a reasonable showing in the other 4 states to remain in the race.
Romney only needs to win the other 4 states by any margin to remain the front-runner. The pressure is on Santorum to win at home and to show well everywhere else.
If Santorum survives April 24, he should do reasonably well in the contests leading up to the May 29 Texas primary. Santorum could win 5 of the 7 states leading up to the Texas primary. But he will have to win bigger than he did in Louisiana. He will not only need to win in Texas, but win in a big way. The Bush family is behind Romney, and the former Massachusetts governor will do well in the big cities and in oil country. Santorum will have to convince Texas voters that he cares about the economy and about energy policy. His chances of forcing a brokered convention will have dimmed because Newt will likely be mathematically eliminated from the race by Texas.
After Texas; California, New Jersey and Utah and have the biggest remaining delegate prizes, and figure to be big for Romney.
Predictions:
April 24
Connecticut...Big for Romney, at least 20 delegates, 4 for Santorum, 4 unallocated
Delaware...All for Romney, at least 16 delegates, 1 unallocated
New York...Big for Romney, at least 85 delegates, 7 for Santorum, 2 unallocated
Pennsylvania...All for Santorum, at least 65 delegates, 6 unallocated
Rhode Island...Big for Romney, at least 15 delegates, 1 unallocated
After April 24
Romney 800 (344 needed or 36%)
Santorum 353
Paul 51
Huntsman 2
Unallocated 88
left in play 948
Headline: Northeast comes in Big for Romney, but no knock-out punch
What Santorum must do: Win something other than Pennsylvania. If Romney forces Santorum into solely defending his home turf, then it will, at best be a slow march to an eventual Romney nomination. If Santorum can sneak a victory outside of Pennsylvania and defend his home turf, he still has a fighting chance.
What Romney must do: Sweep the states outside of Pennsylvania and make Santorum defend his home turf.
At this point, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich will be mathematically out of the race.
May 8
North Carolina...55 up for play: Slim Santorum win at least 33 with 20 for Romney, 2 unallocated
Indiana...46 up for play: Romney win, at least 35 with 10 for Santorum, 1 unallocated
West Virginia...31 available; Santorum win, 25 for Rick and 4 for Mitt
Romney 859 (285 needed or 35%)
Santorum 394
Gingrich 135
Paul 51
Huntsman 2
Unallocated 91
Left in play 819
Headline: Split fails to deliver clear nomination for Romney, but he inches closer
Reality: Yes, a couple of wins for Rick, but not big enough, in reality he is further from his goal and time is running out.
What Santorum must do: Sweep these three states.
What Romney must do: Win Indiana
May 15
Nebraska...35 in play: Santorum win with 20 for Rick and 13 for Mitt with 2 unallocated
Oregon...28 in play: Romney win with 20 for Mitt and 7 for Rick with 1 unallocated
Romney 892 (252 needed or 33%)
Santorum 421
Gingrich 135
Paul 51
Huntsman 2
Unallocated 94
Left in play 759
Headline: Santorum still alive in race after contestants split contests. But falling farther behind Romney.
Reality: Anything but a Santorum sweep is a Romney victory.
What Santorum must do: Win both of these states big.
What Romney must do: Win Oregon
May 22
Kentucky...45 in play, Santorum with slim victory 25 to Mitt's 19, 1 unallocated
Arkansas...36 in play, Santorum with another slim victory 20 to 15, 1 unallocated
Romney 926 (236 needed or 34.7%)
Santorum 466 (678 needed or 99.7%)_
Gingrich 135
Paul 51
Huntsman 2
Unallocated 96
Left in play 680
Headline: Romney continues to flop in Deep South, Santorum inches closer
Reality: Doesn't matter. Santorum practically unable to win enough delegates to win the nomination before the convention.
What Santorum must do: Continue to focus on the bigger prize in Texas.
What Romney must do: Prevent a big Santorum win. Make Kentucky and Arkansas look like Louisiana.
May 29
Texas...155 in play, Santorum with a razor-thin victory 80 delegates 75 for Romney
Romney 1001 (143 needed or 27%)
Santorum 546 (Can not win the nomination outright, but can still force a brokered convention)
Gingrich 135
Paul 51
Huntsman 2
Unallocated 96
Left in play 525
Headline, Santorum wins in Texas, but not by large enough margin.
Reality: Santorum needs almost all of Texas to remain in the race.
What Santorum must do: Win by a landslide. At this point, he could win Texas, but not win enough delegates to be mathematically alive for the nomination. By my prediction, he would need to win at least 138 of the 155 delegates in Texas to have a mathematically possibility to win the GOP nomination before the convention.
What Romney must do: Win enough delegates to ensure that he can secure the nomination before the convention and convince voters in California and New Jersey that his campaign is viable. By my math, Romney needs to win at least 16 delegates in Texas.
June 5
California...172 in play, Winner take all, Romney wins 171 delegates with 1 unallocated
New Jersey...50 delegates in play, Winner take all, Romney with 49 delegates and 1 unallocated
South Dakota...28 in play, Santorum wins 22 delegates with 6 for Romney
New Mexico...23 in play, Santorum wins 19 delegates with 4 for Romney
Montana...26 in play, Romney wins 20 delegates with 5 for Santorum and 1 unallocated
Romney 1251 (Romney secures GOP nomination)
Santorum 592
Gingrich 135
Paul 51
Huntsman 2
Unallocated 99
Left in play 139
Headline: Romney secures GOP nomination with big wins in California, New Jersey and Montana.
Reality: Smacking Santorum and his backers hard in the face. Will have to back Romney or suffer through another 4 years of Obama. Hard choice for some.
What Santorum must do: If he does not win enough delegates in Texas to possibly win the nomination before the convention, he will need convince voters that he can still beat Obama even coming out of a brokered convention.
What Romney must do: Get to within 40 delegates of the nomination (See Utah, below).
June 28
Utah...40 in play, Winner take all, Romney with another 40
Romney 1291 (Romney secures GOP nomination)
Santorum 592
Gingrich 135
Paul 51
Huntsman 2
Unallocated 99
Left in play 99
Headline: For good measure, Utah gives it's 40 delegates to Romney.
Reality: See June 5
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