Scenarios Where Trump Wins the Presidency Back in 2024

It is now March of 2021, Joe Biden's term is barely 6 weeks old.  It is a long time to the 2024 election.  A lot can happen.  I can see 100+ different scenarios going into the 2024 election.  I know many Trump supporters want to see the former president back in 2024.  Some of those who have spoken against him are consigned that he will run again.  If he does, he will likely win the nomination.  I do not see many scenarios where he wins in 2024.  I will go over three of them after I relate to you some history.

There have been 5 presidential election rematches.  Three of those have a flipped the results, sort of.  It's complicated.  Truthfully, 3 of the 5 saw the other candidate become the president.  2 of the 5 flipped the electoral college.  Only one flipped the popular vote.

In 1796, John Adams won the presidency and Thomas Jefferson finished second.  In those days, before the 12th Amendment, the first place winner was the president.  The runner up was the Vice President.  Beginning in 1800 after the 12th was ratified, that changed.  The President and the Vice President ran together.  The rematch saw Thomas Jefferson/Aaron Burr beat out John Adams/Charles Pickney.

In 1824 there was only one political party in the United States, the Democratic Republicans.  This year, rather than choosing one candidate, they chose four.  Andrew Jackson, John Quincy Adams, William Crawford and Henry Clay.  Jackson won both the Electoral College and the popular vote, but he did not secure enough electoral votes to claim the presidency.  The election went into the House of Representatives.  Henry Clay was eliminated as only the top three move on when the election goes to the House.  You would think that because Jackson won the popular vote, he would have simply walked away from the contingent election as the President Elect.  That is not what happened.  Clay was very influential and hated Jackson.  He used his influence to ensure that Adams was elected.  In the 1828 rematch, Jackson won by a landslide.

In the election of 1888, incumbent president Grover Cleveland lost to Benjamin Harrison.  Cleveland won the popular vote by less than 500,000 votes.  But he did not secure the Electoral vote.  There were some things that changed in 1892 rematch.  One is that there was a strong 3rd party candidate who carried 5 states.  That did not stop Cleveland from flipping New York and Indiana to carry the election and become the only president to serve two non-consecutive terms.

In 1896, William McKinley had a comfortable win against William Jennings Bryan.  In 1900, McKinley won an additional 5 states, winning by a landslide in the rematch.

In 1952, Dwight D Eisenhower won by a landslide.  In 1956, Adlai Stevenson managed to flip Missouri.  Ike flipped four other states and won by a landslide again.

There has never been a rematch involving a former president.  Most presidents, whether they serve one term or two, will accept the role of a senior statesman and never run for public office again.  There are some exceptions.  John Quincy Adams was elected to the House of Representatives after leaving the White House.  Two former presidents ran for the highest office after either losing or stepping aside.  Martin Van Buren represented the short-lived Free Soil Party in 1848.  He won 10% of the vote without securing any electoral votes.  The other incident that is well know is what Theodore Roosevelt did in 2012 against incumbent William Howard Taft.  He essentially split the Republican party and handed the White House to Woodrow Wilson.

I have little doubt that Biden will win again if he runs against Trump in 2024.  The most likely scenario is that Biden increases his share of the popular vote at least 2% and flips North Carolina.  Most presidents increase their vote the second time if they win a second term.  The only exception in recent history was Obama.  But it is not automatic at this point.  It will be Biden's election to lose if there is a rematch.  Out of the 100+ scenarios I can think of at this point, I see Trump winning three.

The first scenario: The GOP wins control over both houses of Congress in the 2022 mid-terms.  The two branches of government are constantly fighting.  There is veto after veto.  There are government shutdowns.  The economy suffers.  Biden is shown to be ineffective.  The Democrats become so frustrated that many stay home on election day.  Trump wins the rematch.

The second scenario will take a little history to explain.  Vice presidents have been elected president in their own right, but only under one of three conditions.  The first condition was set by the first Vice President to win a term on his own, namely John Adams.  The president must serve two terms.  The Vice President does not need to be with the president for both terms (Martin Van Buren), but the president must serve two terms.  This condition applied to John Adams, Martin Van Buren, Richard Nixon, George HW Bush and Joe Biden.  The second condition is the president dies in office.  This applies to Theodore Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson.  The third condition, your name is Thomas Jefferson.  Outside of these three conditions, no Veep has become the POTUS.

The second scenario is that Biden finishes his term, but declines to run again and the Democrats select Vice President Kamala Harris to be their nominee in 2024.  If the president only serves one term, the Vice President does not get elected.  This happened to Walter Mondale, Hubert Humphrey and John C. Breckenridge.  True that each one of these cases was different.  Jimmy Carter was defeated.  Lyndon Johnson decided not to run again for another term early in the election cycle.  James Buchanan pledged to only serve one term before he was elected.  Each of their vice presidents failed in their presidential bids.  There is only one exception to this rule, again the name is Thomas Jefferson.

The third condition where Trump can win is if Biden dies in office, but Harris is not selected as the Democratic party nominee.  This happened in our country four times.  The president died,  those presidents were William Henry Harrison, Zachary Taylor, Abraham Lincoln and James Garfield.  Their Vice Presidents were John Tyler, Millard Fillmore, Andrew Johnson and Chester A. Arthur respectively.  In each case, the successor was denied their party's nomination.  In each case, the other party won.  The third scenario where Trump wins is Biden dies, the Democrats select someone other than Kamala Harris in 2024.  This will surely result in a Republican win.

Again, a lot can happen between now and 2024.  Trump has beaten history simply by being elected.  He may beat history again.  But the odds are against him and he is no Thomas Jefferson.

Is there A Role for Donald Trump as an Elder Statesman?

 As a matter of fact, there is a role that Former President Donald Trump can play in the Republican Party and in the United States if he chooses to take it.  That is the role of an Elder Statesman.

An Elder Statesman is a man, usually retired, is one who gives advice to those who are serving their state, country and world.  Trump, as a one term president, could occupy the role once served by George HW Bush, who recently passed away or Gerald R. Ford who also recently passed away.

There are now five former US presidents living.  Jimmy Carter, who is nearing the Century Mark is frail and well respected, in spite of only serving one term himself.  George W. Bush, whose presidency gains more respect as time rolls on is the only other former Republican president still serving.  The other two Elder Statesmen that served in the presidency are Bill Clinton and Barrack Obama.

Even though many people now consider Trump to be one of the worst presidents in history, once the angst of his election fades, his status will likely improve.  It will be tough to be worse than the string of presidents which proceeded the US Civil War in the eyes of history.  Only if Trumps actions actually lead to a Civil War would his presidency be considered worse.  There will be some tough things that will always taint his legacy.  

In order to transition to the role of an Elder Statesman, Donald Trump will need to have a sense of humility, be somewhat repentant about his mistakes and own up to them.  Unfortunately, this is something which is very un-Trump like.  It will have to be the Donald Trump that we have not yet seen.  Rumors of a third party are springing.  This is what I will address next.