I am in favor of proceeding with a hearing and for Merrick Garland. And here is why.
Only constitutional reason for the delay. Constitution does not specify how many justices the Supreme Court should have. It does not even specify that there should be an odd number. Otherwise, there is no other constitutional reason for the Senate not to move forward.
Negatives for the GOP.
1. With an even number of justices, a tied court means that the decision of the lower court will stand. Does the GOP really want to take that risk?
2. It makes the GOP look like a party of partisan obstructionists and putting party interests ahead of the overall needs of the country. Of course, the Republicans have, for the last eight years, looked like a party of partisan obstructionists who put party ahead of the overall needs of the country.
3. Obama could nominate someone even more liberal to the court as a recess appointment. Merrick Garland, on many issues, is a moderate.
4. It could costs the party critical votes in the upcoming election. There are 7 senate seats that are considered "toss-up" seats in the upcoming election. Six of them are held by Republicans. If all six are won by Democrats, they are back in the majority in the Senate. In the House, the Democrats are likely to gain at least 8 seats. 17 others are considered toss-up elections. 3 of those 17 are currently held by Democrats. The GOP could lose 22 seats of their 30 seat majority. Some Tea Party people might look at this as caving, but election years are not years to play hardball. Of course, most people are focused on the Presidential Election, but that also means that more people will be coming out to vote.
5. The Democrats will return the favor someday. There will be another day when there is a Republican president and Democrats are in charge of the Senate. The Dems are sure to do the same thing at that time. Sure, they threatened to not proceed with the nomination of Alito back in 2007, but they eventually did go forward and confirm the nomination of Samuel Alito. The question is, do you really want this to be the precedent going forward? I doubt you really do, as it has not been the precedent so far.
Positives for the GOP in moving forward.
1. The GOP senators will look like they are interested in doing their jobs.
2. They can reject Garland and force president Obama to nominate someone more moderate in his place. (That, by the way, is how we got Anthony Kennedy on the court.)
3. We really don't know how Merrick Garland will be as a Supreme Court justice. Many Supreme Court justices have been a surprise once seated and confirmed. Garland may turn out to be just like his replacement. Unlikely, I will admit, but it is possible.
4. The GOP Senators will get to stop explaining themselves.
Sure, the GOP can play games if they want to. But there is probably more to lose than to gain by stonewalling Garland. Perhaps a letter to your Senator will change is mind?
Tuesday, March 29, 2016
Monday, March 21, 2016
Should There Be a Minimum Required Qualifications for the Office of President
The US Constitution only gives two qualifications for the office of President of the United States. First, a person must be 35 years of age. And second, the president must be a natural born citizen, meaning a citizen by birth.
I think after this election, both major parties should consider minimum qualifications before accepting just anyone to run for office. This election, especially for the republicans, the nomination process has become a disaster. Here is my suggestion.
A person wishing to win the nomination for the presidency from either the Republican or Democratic Party, please consider these as the minimum qualifications. In history, you will notice that very few men who have run for the office have done well without meeting one of these qualifications.
1. Achieved the rank of Major General in the Armed Forces, or it's equivalent. And has commanded troops during a major war. Examples: George Washington, Zachary Taylor, Ulysses S. Grant, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Andrew Jackson
2. Served at least one term as the Vice President of the United States. Examples: John Adams, Calvin Coolidge, Richard Nixon, George H.W. Bush, Martin Van Buren, Thomas Jefferson
3. Served at least one term as the Governor of a State. Examples: George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, William McKinley, Rutherford B. Hayes, James K. Polk
4. Served at least one term in the United States Senate. Examples: John F. Kennedy, Warren G. Harding, Benjamin Harrison, Franklin Pierce, (Some who have served partial terms in the Senate have been elected: Barack Obama, William Henry Harrison, Andrew Jackson. Except for Obama, the others had other experience, mainly military experience, to make up for lack of time in the Senate.)
5. Served at least one term in the United States House of Representatives. Examples: James A Garfield, Abraham Lincoln, William Henry Harrison
6. Served at least one term as a cabinet-level Secretary in a Presidential Administration: Examples: Herbert Hoover, William Howard Taft, James Buchanan, John Q. Adams, James Monroe, James Madison
7. Served at least 4 years as an associate justice, or the Chief Justice of the US Supreme Court. However, no one has ever been elected with this experience.
8. Served as the Mayor of the hub city of a Major Metropolitan Area. However, no one has ever been elected with this experience.
All of the Democratic Candidates have one of these qualifications except for Lawrence Lessig.
Here are the Republican Candidates who have failed to meet these qualifications
Donald Trump
Carly Fiorina
Ben Carson
Mark Everson
Andy Martin
And here are those who have served partial terms in the Senate
Ted Cruz
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
However, assuming they would have finished to taking the oath of office, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio would have completed 6 years in the senate.
Would this have cleared up matters? On the GOP side you would have been left with
John Kasich
Mike Huckabee
Rick Santorum
Jim Gilmore
Jeb Bush
Bobby Jindal
Lindsey Graham
George Pataki
Rick Perry
Scott Walker
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
This is Who Supports Trump
A couple of days ago, I told you why people were mad at "The Establishment" and now you need to know who. Let's just say that there are certain group of people who have been ignored in the political process since the days of Ronald Reagan.
According to Real Clear Politics, the Trump supporters are the forgotten demographic. They are people who have families or are middle aged. It is what used to be called Middle America. Except that happy little moniker has gone the way of McGuyver. They are likely to have a high school education, but not a college education. They are both men and women. And it is not necessarily white. This demographic includes people of all races. They listen to Rush Limbaugh on the radio. It is the people who were once referred to as the silent majority, but they found their voice in Trump. These are the people who still go to church every Sunday, even if they are not necessarily Christian by their actions the rest of the week. They make just enough not to qualify for welfare, but not enough to be considered wealthy. Many lost jobs and/or homes due to the housing crisis of 2008. Many have been forced to retire early because no one will hire them. Others feel like retirement is something that will never happen for them. They will die with their boots on. That is your Trump supporter.
These people feel that they have been left behind, forgotten, or taken for granted, in every single election since Reagan rode into the sunset. They were blown over when Bush went back on his no new taxes pledge. Many voted for H. Ross Perot in 1992. That should have been a sign to take things more seriously. They saw Slick Willie escape scandal after scandal, but cheered the Contract with America. They thought things would change with Bush Jr., but were let down by new program after new program and were dismayed when the deficit grew and grew, and that the hated Clinton was the last president with a balanced budget. TARP was the final straw.
They are angry. They are not going to go home and study and find the best candidate. This time, they will vote with their emotions. And their emotions tell them that the college boys have been in power long enough. In their mind, it's time to let Mr. Loud Mouth speak his mind. To them, it's refreshing to hear a politician who doesn't hold any punches, who doesn't worry that what he says will rock the boat.
The problem the year is that almost no one the Republican party has is going to win this group over, not any longer. The party has lost its trustworthiness. In their mind, you will get the same result no matter who you vote for. So, you may as well vote for someone who is transparent. With this group, you can't sway them with disgusting facts about Trump, even if they are true, because they believe that everyone is covering up something just as bad. Hence, no matter what is revealed about Trump, others are doing the same or worse when the camera's aren't running. After all, that is what they see on TV every night. They know it's fiction, but believe that fiction has a factual basis at one point.
The only way to stop Trump is to find some deep dark secret in his past. Something that for him is dark and out of character. And it would really have to be sinister and dark. It would have to make everything that is currently public look like something a choir boy would do. Perhaps the Democratic Party already knows the secret, and they are waiting until October to release it. Anytime before the convention, and the GOP can simply choose someone else and they would have to run a real campaign. But this has not been the year for the GOP. Something will be found, but definitely after the convention and before the election.
If there is something found out before the convention, and Trump has to drop out. I would suggest getting away from any old country-club slick, chiseled-looking chump like Mitt Romney. Perhaps a former athlete like JC Watts. Someone that you could have a beer with. Someone who lives in the suburbs, not on the slopes of Park City. Finding something on Trump may put the election into more chaos than it already is because people like that don't usually run for office. It may also be that Trump is the Republican Slick Willie and nothing that can be found out will stick.
The danger for the Republicans is that the Democrats will want you to believe that all Republicans are like Trump. It makes anyone that they would run look good by comparison. That is sort of like saying that all public restrooms are like rest stop near mile 99.
It may not have come to this if Jeb Bush had listened to Mom and stayed home. But his ego got the best of him. To the Trump voter, seeing another Bush become the nominee was like having an extra serving of week-old buckwheet pancakes. And the fact that Trump stole voters from just about everyone else running proves that people were looking desperately for someone whose last name was not Bush. Jeb is indeed to blame for much of this.
It may have also helped if the Republican Party had been a little more transparent in the Bush years. If those in Congress in the early 1990s had used a little foresight. They knew they housing bubble would pop. They could have at least introduced legislation to stem it. But that never happened.
Like it or not, Trump is going to be the GOP nominee. The real question, is what to do about it.
According to Real Clear Politics, the Trump supporters are the forgotten demographic. They are people who have families or are middle aged. It is what used to be called Middle America. Except that happy little moniker has gone the way of McGuyver. They are likely to have a high school education, but not a college education. They are both men and women. And it is not necessarily white. This demographic includes people of all races. They listen to Rush Limbaugh on the radio. It is the people who were once referred to as the silent majority, but they found their voice in Trump. These are the people who still go to church every Sunday, even if they are not necessarily Christian by their actions the rest of the week. They make just enough not to qualify for welfare, but not enough to be considered wealthy. Many lost jobs and/or homes due to the housing crisis of 2008. Many have been forced to retire early because no one will hire them. Others feel like retirement is something that will never happen for them. They will die with their boots on. That is your Trump supporter.
These people feel that they have been left behind, forgotten, or taken for granted, in every single election since Reagan rode into the sunset. They were blown over when Bush went back on his no new taxes pledge. Many voted for H. Ross Perot in 1992. That should have been a sign to take things more seriously. They saw Slick Willie escape scandal after scandal, but cheered the Contract with America. They thought things would change with Bush Jr., but were let down by new program after new program and were dismayed when the deficit grew and grew, and that the hated Clinton was the last president with a balanced budget. TARP was the final straw.
They are angry. They are not going to go home and study and find the best candidate. This time, they will vote with their emotions. And their emotions tell them that the college boys have been in power long enough. In their mind, it's time to let Mr. Loud Mouth speak his mind. To them, it's refreshing to hear a politician who doesn't hold any punches, who doesn't worry that what he says will rock the boat.
The problem the year is that almost no one the Republican party has is going to win this group over, not any longer. The party has lost its trustworthiness. In their mind, you will get the same result no matter who you vote for. So, you may as well vote for someone who is transparent. With this group, you can't sway them with disgusting facts about Trump, even if they are true, because they believe that everyone is covering up something just as bad. Hence, no matter what is revealed about Trump, others are doing the same or worse when the camera's aren't running. After all, that is what they see on TV every night. They know it's fiction, but believe that fiction has a factual basis at one point.
The only way to stop Trump is to find some deep dark secret in his past. Something that for him is dark and out of character. And it would really have to be sinister and dark. It would have to make everything that is currently public look like something a choir boy would do. Perhaps the Democratic Party already knows the secret, and they are waiting until October to release it. Anytime before the convention, and the GOP can simply choose someone else and they would have to run a real campaign. But this has not been the year for the GOP. Something will be found, but definitely after the convention and before the election.
If there is something found out before the convention, and Trump has to drop out. I would suggest getting away from any old country-club slick, chiseled-looking chump like Mitt Romney. Perhaps a former athlete like JC Watts. Someone that you could have a beer with. Someone who lives in the suburbs, not on the slopes of Park City. Finding something on Trump may put the election into more chaos than it already is because people like that don't usually run for office. It may also be that Trump is the Republican Slick Willie and nothing that can be found out will stick.
The danger for the Republicans is that the Democrats will want you to believe that all Republicans are like Trump. It makes anyone that they would run look good by comparison. That is sort of like saying that all public restrooms are like rest stop near mile 99.
It may not have come to this if Jeb Bush had listened to Mom and stayed home. But his ego got the best of him. To the Trump voter, seeing another Bush become the nominee was like having an extra serving of week-old buckwheet pancakes. And the fact that Trump stole voters from just about everyone else running proves that people were looking desperately for someone whose last name was not Bush. Jeb is indeed to blame for much of this.
It may have also helped if the Republican Party had been a little more transparent in the Bush years. If those in Congress in the early 1990s had used a little foresight. They knew they housing bubble would pop. They could have at least introduced legislation to stem it. But that never happened.
Like it or not, Trump is going to be the GOP nominee. The real question, is what to do about it.
Monday, March 14, 2016
Why Donald Trump is succeeding
I am listening to a stump speech by Ted Cruz this morning, and there is one name I am hearing...Donald Trump. Nothing about Ted Cruz, united the party. Nothing about what President Ted Cruz would do for the country. Now I am certain that as soon as I post this, I am going to get a flurry of responses about how good a Ted Cruz presidency will be.
However, Ted Cruz isn't the topic of my blog post today, it's Donald Trump and about why he is winning. The answer is anger. People were upset that Barrack Obama was elected, but they were even angrier about what happened earlier in 2008. Really, the person responsible for all of this is not even Obama, and not really John McCain either.
The one thing that got everyone upset was TARP. I am not going to argue here whether or not it was needed. To most rank and file republicans, this was simply viewed as a huge occurrence of debt to bail-out privileged few, many of whom were not big republican supporters. TARP ensured that Barrack Obama was going to win in that November. Imagine being a die hard republican and seeing all of this transpire after losing both your job and your house.
This was the point in history where Republicans of all factions felt betrayed by their own party and felt that something had to be done to fix it. But this was really the last straw. All 8 years of the Bush Administration were filled with one excuse after another for spending more money and growing government. Bill Clinton, who was hated by the GOP, had balanced the budget and reduced the size of government. Sure, Newt Gingrich was the Speaker of the Republican House. But Clinton occupied the oval office. George W. Bush, who waltzed his way into the 2000 GOP nomination had done just the opposite, and with Republicans in control of Congress for 6 of his 8 years in office. From one large perspective, Bill Clinton was a more Republican president than W ever was. And once republicans put this all together, the anger erupted and it has yet to subside.
If you are concerned about the quality of the four remaining GOP contenders, keep this in mind. Donald Trump can read the anger in the party right now, and he has taken advantage of it. You probably heard about the violence at the Donald Trump rallies this past weekend. If The Donald becomes the GOP nominee, expect this to be the norm through November. Without the anger, there is no Donald. He needs it. His campaign thrives on it. The main reason why Trump should not be the nominee is because he fits the mold that the Democratic party likes to cast the Republicans in very well. He is old, he is white, he is male, he uses women (and yes, he has earned that reputation), he is rich, he is angry and he doesn't care. Besides, the Democrats just can't let the first Hispanic president be a Republican. That will ruin everything.
Other potential republicans who could have jumped into the race, all stayed away. Especially once Jeb Bush got in the race. (Nothing could have stoked the Republican anger even more than the prospect of another Bush in the White House.) No one who valued his or her political future wanted to be any part of this. Look at what happened to Romney when he threw in his two cents worth...not like a Nixon-like comeback is in the works for Good Ole Mitt, anyway. Mitt is expandable, he knows it. He threw himself on his own sword. But he still can direct where the cash flows, and he will for a few more election cycles because he knows how to make people part with it. And that speech, the one in Salt Lake a couple of weeks ago, is the only reason Marco Rubio and John Kasich are still in the race.
If you are wondering why names like Rick Scott (Florida), Nathan Deal (Georgia), Sam Brownback (Kansas), Rick Snyder (Michigan), Brian Sandoval (Nevada), Susana Martinez (New Mexico), Jack Dalrymple (North Dakota), Nikki Haley (South Carolina) and Scott Walker (Wisconsin) stayed out of the fray this time, you now know. If this all subsides by 2020, look for some of these men and women, all of whom are quality Republican Governors, to step up to the table in 4 years. For now, these 9 persons are too young and have too much of a future to jump in the mud today. They are smart to stay out of it right now, anyway. Especially Sandoval, whose name was recently floated as a nominee for the Supreme Court vacancy. Don't look for any of these 9 people to be Donald's running mate, either. They are all too smart for that.
But Republicans shouldn't panic. Whether or not Trump wins the nomination, there will be a 3rd party candidate. If Trump loses the GOP nod, it will be Trump. He has a big enough ego to make it happen. If Trump wins the GOP nod, someone will step up and give conservatives someone to vote for. And don't worry, it probably will not be Mitt Romney. Either way, Trump steals enough angry voters away from the democratic party nominee (and there are also angry democrats) to deny the eventual winner her political mandate. And we all learn our lessons and regroup for 2020...or at least that is what I hope will happen.
What has to happen going forward is the Republican leaders not only need to recognize the anger, but come up with a plan to overcome it. Balancing the budget is one thing, but it is too broad and has too many other issues that it is dependent upon. The same with immigration reform. Besides, any immigration package that treats Hispanic immigrants differently than others would be unconstitutional, the constitution requires uniform laws. Speaking of the constitution, the constitution itself is too broad. And maybe, just maybe we have come across the real problem. When it comes to politics, the Democrats fight battles, where the Republicans fight wars.
Wars are won a battle at a time. At this time, I can't identify a battle that should be the focus of the election. Perhaps the battle is funding to fight terrorism. Improving police-community relations to reduce crime. Reducing the prison population because large prisons are not fiscally conservative, anyway. Perhaps its the college football playoffs. I'm only grasping at straws. But something will come up. And those running for office in the future will decide what battles to fight. Hopefully, it is something narrow enough and a winning one for the GOP. Much like the cold war was at one time. Focus on the deficit, yes, but on spending. Perhaps one battle at a time.
However, Ted Cruz isn't the topic of my blog post today, it's Donald Trump and about why he is winning. The answer is anger. People were upset that Barrack Obama was elected, but they were even angrier about what happened earlier in 2008. Really, the person responsible for all of this is not even Obama, and not really John McCain either.
The one thing that got everyone upset was TARP. I am not going to argue here whether or not it was needed. To most rank and file republicans, this was simply viewed as a huge occurrence of debt to bail-out privileged few, many of whom were not big republican supporters. TARP ensured that Barrack Obama was going to win in that November. Imagine being a die hard republican and seeing all of this transpire after losing both your job and your house.
This was the point in history where Republicans of all factions felt betrayed by their own party and felt that something had to be done to fix it. But this was really the last straw. All 8 years of the Bush Administration were filled with one excuse after another for spending more money and growing government. Bill Clinton, who was hated by the GOP, had balanced the budget and reduced the size of government. Sure, Newt Gingrich was the Speaker of the Republican House. But Clinton occupied the oval office. George W. Bush, who waltzed his way into the 2000 GOP nomination had done just the opposite, and with Republicans in control of Congress for 6 of his 8 years in office. From one large perspective, Bill Clinton was a more Republican president than W ever was. And once republicans put this all together, the anger erupted and it has yet to subside.
If you are concerned about the quality of the four remaining GOP contenders, keep this in mind. Donald Trump can read the anger in the party right now, and he has taken advantage of it. You probably heard about the violence at the Donald Trump rallies this past weekend. If The Donald becomes the GOP nominee, expect this to be the norm through November. Without the anger, there is no Donald. He needs it. His campaign thrives on it. The main reason why Trump should not be the nominee is because he fits the mold that the Democratic party likes to cast the Republicans in very well. He is old, he is white, he is male, he uses women (and yes, he has earned that reputation), he is rich, he is angry and he doesn't care. Besides, the Democrats just can't let the first Hispanic president be a Republican. That will ruin everything.
Other potential republicans who could have jumped into the race, all stayed away. Especially once Jeb Bush got in the race. (Nothing could have stoked the Republican anger even more than the prospect of another Bush in the White House.) No one who valued his or her political future wanted to be any part of this. Look at what happened to Romney when he threw in his two cents worth...not like a Nixon-like comeback is in the works for Good Ole Mitt, anyway. Mitt is expandable, he knows it. He threw himself on his own sword. But he still can direct where the cash flows, and he will for a few more election cycles because he knows how to make people part with it. And that speech, the one in Salt Lake a couple of weeks ago, is the only reason Marco Rubio and John Kasich are still in the race.
If you are wondering why names like Rick Scott (Florida), Nathan Deal (Georgia), Sam Brownback (Kansas), Rick Snyder (Michigan), Brian Sandoval (Nevada), Susana Martinez (New Mexico), Jack Dalrymple (North Dakota), Nikki Haley (South Carolina) and Scott Walker (Wisconsin) stayed out of the fray this time, you now know. If this all subsides by 2020, look for some of these men and women, all of whom are quality Republican Governors, to step up to the table in 4 years. For now, these 9 persons are too young and have too much of a future to jump in the mud today. They are smart to stay out of it right now, anyway. Especially Sandoval, whose name was recently floated as a nominee for the Supreme Court vacancy. Don't look for any of these 9 people to be Donald's running mate, either. They are all too smart for that.
But Republicans shouldn't panic. Whether or not Trump wins the nomination, there will be a 3rd party candidate. If Trump loses the GOP nod, it will be Trump. He has a big enough ego to make it happen. If Trump wins the GOP nod, someone will step up and give conservatives someone to vote for. And don't worry, it probably will not be Mitt Romney. Either way, Trump steals enough angry voters away from the democratic party nominee (and there are also angry democrats) to deny the eventual winner her political mandate. And we all learn our lessons and regroup for 2020...or at least that is what I hope will happen.
What has to happen going forward is the Republican leaders not only need to recognize the anger, but come up with a plan to overcome it. Balancing the budget is one thing, but it is too broad and has too many other issues that it is dependent upon. The same with immigration reform. Besides, any immigration package that treats Hispanic immigrants differently than others would be unconstitutional, the constitution requires uniform laws. Speaking of the constitution, the constitution itself is too broad. And maybe, just maybe we have come across the real problem. When it comes to politics, the Democrats fight battles, where the Republicans fight wars.
Wars are won a battle at a time. At this time, I can't identify a battle that should be the focus of the election. Perhaps the battle is funding to fight terrorism. Improving police-community relations to reduce crime. Reducing the prison population because large prisons are not fiscally conservative, anyway. Perhaps its the college football playoffs. I'm only grasping at straws. But something will come up. And those running for office in the future will decide what battles to fight. Hopefully, it is something narrow enough and a winning one for the GOP. Much like the cold war was at one time. Focus on the deficit, yes, but on spending. Perhaps one battle at a time.
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