Friday, November 9, 2012

3 Non-Romeny Gaffes that could have cost him the election in Ohio.

Romney made plenty of his own mistakes in his run for the White House.  Mostly, his ground game did not match Obama's, but there were three mistakes that really cost Romney the women's vote.  But these were not his gaffes.  According to one blogger, it was the moderate Republican women who did not turn out for Romney, not just the conservative women.

What turned women off?  How about these costly stands?

1.  Rick Santorum's comments about birth control.  This was not just a single gaffe, this is Santorum's personal belief.  Santorum did not win the nomination, but this is his repeated stance.  It became a real issue when Santorum, for a brief period of time, because the GOP front runner.  There are many, even staunch conservative women, who are turned off by stances such as this.  These issues were known by Republicans long before Santorum ever considered running president, which was most costly of all.  In Ohio, Santorum finished a close second to Romney in the primary election there.  Think Ohio women forgot about all of that?

2.  Todd Akin's Legitimate Rape Comments.  These insensitive and uneducated comments shed a bad light, not just on the Missouri US Senate Race, but on the entire national Republican party.  Even though he later said his comments were insensitive, he affirmed that he was still opposed to abortion after rape, which is an extreme position.  In the final analysis, it probably was not the back breaker in that race, but could have been the difference in a state where the female vote could have changed the election, like Ohio.  Yes, this happened in Missouri, but this gaffe was heard round the world, even in Ohio.

3.  Richard Murdock's comments about pregnancy after rape.  Murdock, the Tea Party candidate who unseated Dick Lugar in the primaries, said that pregancy after rape is something that "God Intended."  That brings up another question, did God intend the rape?  Another comment about a very sensitive issue for women that was just insensitive.  This may have re-affirmed, on a national level, that Republicans were insensitive about women's issues.  It may not have been the difference in Indiana, where Romney won and Murdock lost, but in states like Ohio and Florida, it may have cost the GOP the White House.

Overall, what happened in Indiana is a lesson that I will address in another blog.  It's an important one to learn, but obviously, the fiscal conservative who unseated Dick Lugar was not properly vetted by the Tea Party group that backed him before running for office.

Again, I caution about painting with broad strokes.  Each Republican woman who voted for Obama or stayed home on election day has her own reason for doing so.  But certainly insensitive comments about birth control and rape certainly did not help in the long run.

Does the GOP need to moderate their platform, or just the tone.

It is clear the the minority vote on election night did not go the way of the GOP and that some loyal conservatives stayed home and did not vote.

While some are calling for change, they can't agree on what change needs to be made.  Many are saying that if we had a more conservative candidate at the top of the ticket, then more hardy GOP turnout could have one the election.  Others are saying that more moderate views would win more Hispanics, more women and more young people to the GOP. 

I think the GOP is in a bigger quandary.  There are not enough Hispanics that vote to make up for the conservatives that would be alienated from the party.  Some women will never become republicans, and since we are having fewer and fewer babies, and the GOP is not cool enough for people who haven't lived long enough to know themselves.  We have to bring more people into the fold without alienating the people that are here.

The Republicans should not change who they are, but should change the TONE.  Our 7th-day Adventist Friends have some good advice that I think the whole party should hear and heed.  I will use the example of immigration reform.

We are not talking about compromise, moderating platforms nor changing who we are.  We are talking about taking the high road and a tone that will lead to problem resolution.

Here are the bad steps to conflict resolution.

1.  Name-callling.  Avoid the use of racial slurs, for example.  Even the use of terms like illegal alien are offensive to some.  The reason why this is bad is because it transforms the discussion into a personal attack.  What should we call people who have broken the law and crossed the border without documentation, then?  Call them by name.  They also prefer the term "undocumented immigrant."  Let's go with that because it is respectful.

2. Becoming hysterical.  The first person to get angry in a conflict will lose.  The statement, "what part of illegal don't you understand?" is an anger statement. 

3. Becoming historical.  Each immigrant comes to the US for a different reason.  Let Democrats try to categorize and pigeon-hole people because that is what they are best at.  We are best at solving problems.  Let's focus on solutions, not on history.  Sorry Newt.

4.  Overgeneralizing.  Again, we can let the other party do that.  That is the main weakness of the Arizona immigration bill, it tends to overgeneralize the problem.  Not everyone who crosses our southern border does so for ________.

5.  Silent Treatment/Ignoring.  We are not going to woo Hispanic voters if we ignore the problems that they care about.  We have to show that we are willing to listen to all sides and put forth a workable resolution.

6.  Becoming physically abusive.  This almost goes without saying.

The right way to solve problems.

1.  Define the problem.  Here is how I define the immigration problem.  "Ever have a party and an uninvited guest showed up?  Did they spoil the party?  No.  But what if the whole neighborhood shows up?  Do you have enough to take care of everybody?  No."  The problem is this, we are simply looking for a way to ensure that there is enough to go around.

2.  Listen intently and with an open mind.  Not everyone that crosses the border came here for the same reason.  Some come to escape problems.  Some come to earn money.  Some come to be with family.  Some come to break the law.  What can we do to help?  Maybe the solution is to help them make things better at home.  We won't know unless we talk.

3.  Ask clarifying questions.  It helps both sides feel better about the solution to the problem.

4.  Restate what the other person has said.  That person will then know you have listened.

5.  Do not interrupt.

6.  Treat others with respect.

Read more at the following address:

http://www.adventistworld.org/article/1298/resources/english/issue-2012-1008/speaking-your-mind-without-losing-it

Thursday, November 8, 2012

The Second Term Curse

Almost every president that has served 2 terms has had more trouble in the second term.  It may be no different for Obama.  It happened to Woodrow Wilson almost every president.  Many second term agendas have gone by the wayside because of the Second Term Curse.  Here is what has happened in the 2nd term to each president in their second term in one word.  Only Coolidge, Theodore Roosevelt and Monroe seemed to avoid it.  Even George Washington had his.  I think that Obama will get his, and his legacy will be defined by how well he handles it.  Look at Bill Clinton, for example.  Each word has a link to the Wikipedia article about the scandal.


GW Bush--Katrina
Clinton--Monica
Reagan--Contra
Nixon--Watergate
Johnson--Vietnam
Eisenhower--Health
Truman--Korea
Roosevelt--Court
Coolidge--None
Wilson--War
Roosevelt--None
McKinley--Buffalo
Cleveland--Silver
Grant--Many
Lincoln--Booth
Jackson--Debt
Monroe--None
Madison--Bonus
Jefferson--Embargo
Washington--Whiskey

If you do not want to go to Wikipedia, scroll down...

Side Note:
In this Blogger's opinion, Grant was by far the worst president to win a second term in office.


GW Bush--The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina turned Bush into a lame duck.
Clinton--The Monica Lewinsky Affair got him impeached.
Reagan--The Iran-Contra scandal.
Nixon--The coverup of the break in at the Watergate offices of the DNC.  Dick tried to protect his "plumbers" and had to resign.
Johnson--The Vietnam War.
Eisenhower--Ike tried to hide is heart troubles from the public.  The President is now expected to disclose health problems.
Truman--War broke out in Korea, didn't result in a decisive victory.  Truman fired McArthur.
Roosevelt--Roosevelt tried to stack the Supreme Court after some of his programs were declared unconstitutional.
Coolidge--None
Wilson--It wasn't the war that did Wilson in, it was selling the peace treaty and the League of Nations to an America that wanted to return to isolationism.
Roosevelt--None
McKinley--McKinley met an assassin in Buffalo.
Cleveland--Had to deal with a panic and recession in his second term.
Grant--US Grant was the most scandal-plagued president in history, bar none.
Lincoln--John Wilkes Booth shot Lincoln in the head while he was at the Theater.
Jackson--High public debt and speculation led on a major depression.
Monroe--None
Madison--He vetoed the popular Bonus bill that would have channeled profits from a national bank to the treasury for capital projects.
Jefferson--The embargo act of 1907 led to the War of 1812.
Washington--When Western Pennsylvania farmers refused to pay taxes on whiskey grain, Washington sent in the militia.

The Next LDS Candidate

Mitt Romney lost and historically the first person from a new religion to run for the White House will lose, the second one always wins.  John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon are prime examples.  Kennedy was the 2nd Roman Catholic to become a major party candidate after Al Smith.  Nixon was the first Quaker to become president.  He failed the first time he was on top of the ticket, but succeeded the second time.

Here is a list of who the next LDS presidential candidate could rise to the top of their party's ticket.

Democrats:

Nevada Senator Harry Reid
New Mexico Senator Tom Udall

Republicans:

Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman
Utah Governor Gary Herbert
Idaho Senator Mike Crapo
Utah Senator Mike Lee
Nevada Senator Dean Heller
Arizona Senator Elect Jeff Flake

Utah Congressman Jason Chaffetz
Utah Congressman Elect Chris Stewart


Idaho Congressman Raul Labrador

This is not the complete list of Latter-day Saints in high office.  I left out those over 60, except for governors and senators.  Those in the House will likely need to move to one of these offices before seeking the presidency, so those on this list are relatively young.

The ones that I would have this list that I would have the highest hopes for are Flake, Chaffetz and Labrador, but I would not expect either of these men to rise to the top of the ticket until after 2020.

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

GOP frontrunner for 2016.

After reading through all of the exit polls and all of the reaction for the radio talk show conservatives, I am willing to cristen Floria Senator Marco Rubio as the GOP frontrunner for 2016.  I think after all is said and done, he is the only one that comes out like a knight in shining armor that is associated with the Republican Campaign.  Everyone else had a hand in Romney's defeat like Chris Christie or didn't do all that could have been expected to help Romney to victory like Paul Ryan.

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

7 Reasons Why Obama Won...7 Ways the GOP can improve

To my fellow Republicans. I have read the exit polls. This is what I believe: We spent too much time the election cycle arguing with each-other. We ran as if we were going for an open seat, not contending with an incumbent. We did not unite soon enough. History warned us that we were treading on thin ice. But we refused to listen. We were too much Rhetoric and forgot about people like Joe the Plumber. Now America will pay a steep price and we have no one but ourselves to blame. Will we learn our lesson? And what will we do going forward. We must be careful what battles we fight going forward. 

I came up with 7 big reasons why Obama won again and what the GOP can do differently in the future.

1.  We did not know the real Mitt Romney.  It took too long for us to get the know him.  We only began to find out after the first presidential debate.

2.  Hurricane Sandy stalled Romney's momentum in key states.

3.  The rhetoric of the Republican party does not translate to how it will improve the lives of many Americans.  The GOP rhetoric is too strong, particularly on immigration and birth control and how to repeal or reform Obamacare.

4.  The Tea Party and their refusal to back Romney in the Presidential Primaries cost the Romney Campaign too much time, energy and money.  If the GOP had settled on a candidate earlier, they would have had a much earlier start at Romney vs. Obama.  They treated the primary election as if it were an open-year election, when they needed to settle on a candidate early.  The GOP forgot Reagan's 11th commandment...not to speak ill of thy fellow Republican.

5.  Many in the GOP and in the Tea Party in particular do not fully appreciate how truly difficult it is in any election to defeat an incumbent.  They were too focused, early on, on defeating Romney because he was not their style of conservative.

6.  Romney did not woo enough women.

7.  Minorities overwhelmingly supported Obama.

Five matters of advice for the GOP to win in 2014 and 2016.

1.  Put all effort into winning back the Senate in 2014.  If Sarah Palin wants to be a force in national politics again she can begin by running herself to defeat Sean Parnell in Alaska in the US Senate.  Buy the end of 2013, the GOP needs to identify a winning candidate in each Senate Race.

2.  Do not challenge any GOP incumbent in Congress in 2014 no matter how moderate they are.  A moderate Republican is better than any liberal.  Do not challenge the GOP within the party until the party is in firm control of both houses in Congress.  Only contest open seats.

3.  Settle on a Presidential contender early in 2016.  Do not punish states that want to vote in their presidential primary early.  The earlier the GOP can settle on a presidential candidate, the better.  Maybe all states that have not otherwise voted should vote on Super Tuesday.

4. Tone down the Rhetoric.  Show how GOP policies benefit the average American, especially those who earn less than 50,000.  No one cares how much national debt is per person there is until they realize how it impacts them today and now.  Don't just talk about the future, talk about today.  That is why many people will say, "the Republicans care about my boss, not about me."

5.  Take stock in how difficult it truly is to defeat an incumbent.  GOP members need to be more generous with their political contributions and need to be less contentious with themselves.

6.  Work to elect more conservative women to office.  They do exist.

7.  Work to elect more conservative minorities to office.  They also exist.

The GOP will win over minorities and women if more are in office.  

The bottom line, Republicans need to show that they care about people.  This election should be a wake up call to the GOP.  Tone it down, or we will continue to lose. We can still show that we care about the economy, about the deficit and about strong moral values.  We simply need to be less extreme about it.  It's not always about what you say, it's about how you say it.

This was the most telling statistic from the exit polls...

Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for president? (CHECK ONLY ONE)

TotalObamaRomney

Shares my values

27%42%55%

Is a strong leader

18%38%61%

Cares about people like me

21%82%17%

Has a vision for the future

29%45%53%

Monday, November 5, 2012

Predictions for 2013...

If Obama wins...

Obama wins in the electoral college, but loses the popular vote.  There is a strong chance that this will happen.  The GOP will claim that the split denies the president a political mandate.  This is what was done to Bush in 2000 and the GOP will claim that it is only fair play.  Congress prepares for another two years of gridlock as the GOP makes a move to capture the US Senate in 2014.

In the meantime, the economy will go into recession by the 3rd quarter and the tax increases and automatic spending cuts that will hit in the beginning of 2013 will be to blame.  Many government contractors, who expected lifetime work, will be laid off.  Cities near military bases and other large government institutions will be hardest hit.  Congress will never agree on how to roll back the tax increases and the Democrats in the Senate will push to keep increases on high wage earners.

The House will investigate and want answers to Bengazi, but the popular right-wing press will push to raise charges of impeachment on President Obama.  Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and Secratary of Defense William Peneta will resign to protect the president.  But charges of impeachment will never be leveled and some in the GOP will use the incompetence of Joe Biden as a defense.

Many in the GOP will blame Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum and the Tea Party for the Obama victory because they forced Romney to use up too much money and energy in the primary election cycle.  Romney will never again run for public office and will instead become the president of his alma mater, Brigham Young University.  New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will become the front runner for the GOP nomination in 2016.

If Romney wins

The Democrats will use the close victory of Romney as an excuse to deny him a political mandate, but there will be a little less contention in Congress.  Democrats in the Senate will be divided as some will be from states that Romney won and will try to appear to work with the President to please their constituency.  But there will still be some deadlock in Congress.

The GOP will try to roll back some of the tax increases and spending cuts that are in place for early in 2013.  But will have to increase the debt limit to do so.  This will split the GOP when you think that they would unite under a GOP president.  As such, the GOP will lose ground in both houses in 2014.

The GOP will not be able to roll back Obamacare due to a fillerbuster from the Democratic controlled Senate, and unable to untie will have to settle for further healthcare reform.

The economy will head into recession in the 4th quarter of 2013.

Romney's 2016 election chances could be dim.  If he is unable to unite his party, he will receive a strong challenge from a Tea Party governor.  The recession will improve the chances that a democratic challenger will prevail, even if we are in recovery.  Romney, if he wins, therefore, will have two main challenges.  First, will be to unite his party so that he does not get an in-party challenge from someone like Sarah Palin in 2016.  Second, will be the coming economic challenges and the roadblock that the democratic-controlled Senate will give him.

Conclusion

In short, if Obama wins the Tea Party is weakened as they will be blamed for the Romney loss and the tax increases and spending cuts that lead to the 2013 recession, but the GOP ends up stronger.  If Romney wins, the Democratic party is strong and the Tea Party continues to tear apart the GOP.

If Obama wins the Dem ticket?  New York Governor Andrew Cuomo with former Washington Governor Christie Gregoire.
GOP Ticket? New Jersey Governor Chris Christie with South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.