If Obama wins...
Obama wins in the electoral college, but loses the popular vote. There is a strong chance that this will happen. The GOP will claim that the split denies the president a political mandate. This is what was done to Bush in 2000 and the GOP will claim that it is only fair play. Congress prepares for another two years of gridlock as the GOP makes a move to capture the US Senate in 2014.
In the meantime, the economy will go into recession by the 3rd quarter and the tax increases and automatic spending cuts that will hit in the beginning of 2013 will be to blame. Many government contractors, who expected lifetime work, will be laid off. Cities near military bases and other large government institutions will be hardest hit. Congress will never agree on how to roll back the tax increases and the Democrats in the Senate will push to keep increases on high wage earners.
The House will investigate and want answers to Bengazi, but the popular right-wing press will push to raise charges of impeachment on President Obama. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and Secratary of Defense William Peneta will resign to protect the president. But charges of impeachment will never be leveled and some in the GOP will use the incompetence of Joe Biden as a defense.
Many in the GOP will blame Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum and the Tea Party for the Obama victory because they forced Romney to use up too much money and energy in the primary election cycle. Romney will never again run for public office and will instead become the president of his alma mater, Brigham Young University. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will become the front runner for the GOP nomination in 2016.
If Romney wins
The Democrats will use the close victory of Romney as an excuse to deny him a political mandate, but there will be a little less contention in Congress. Democrats in the Senate will be divided as some will be from states that Romney won and will try to appear to work with the President to please their constituency. But there will still be some deadlock in Congress.
The GOP will try to roll back some of the tax increases and spending cuts that are in place for early in 2013. But will have to increase the debt limit to do so. This will split the GOP when you think that they would unite under a GOP president. As such, the GOP will lose ground in both houses in 2014.
The GOP will not be able to roll back Obamacare due to a fillerbuster from the Democratic controlled Senate, and unable to untie will have to settle for further healthcare reform.
The economy will head into recession in the 4th quarter of 2013.
Romney's 2016 election chances could be dim. If he is unable to unite his party, he will receive a strong challenge from a Tea Party governor. The recession will improve the chances that a democratic challenger will prevail, even if we are in recovery. Romney, if he wins, therefore, will have two main challenges. First, will be to unite his party so that he does not get an in-party challenge from someone like Sarah Palin in 2016. Second, will be the coming economic challenges and the roadblock that the democratic-controlled Senate will give him.
Conclusion
In short, if Obama wins the Tea Party is weakened as they will be blamed for the Romney loss and the tax increases and spending cuts that lead to the 2013 recession, but the GOP ends up stronger. If Romney wins, the Democratic party is strong and the Tea Party continues to tear apart the GOP.
If Obama wins the Dem ticket? New York Governor Andrew Cuomo with former Washington Governor Christie Gregoire.
GOP Ticket? New Jersey Governor Chris Christie with South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.
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