1. It was masturbatory. I know that this is an offensive word to some, but it fits. For those of you who are unfamiliar with this word, let me define it as self-gratifying and one-sided. In the long run, who really benefited from the stand that Ted Cruz made against the implementation of Obamacare other than Ted Cruz and a few of his allies? Mike Lee, for example, won $700,000 in campaign donations. But otherwise, Lee lost support at home and he will need every penny he raised to defend his seat from an in-party challenge in 2016.
2. It was myopic. What are the goals of the Republican Party right now? They really should be three fold. First, to successfully defend their majority in the House of Representatives in 2014. Second, to gain the majority of seats in the senate in 2014. And third, build momentum for the eventual Republican nominee for the Presidency in 2016.
How did the stand against Obamacare work toward those goals? First of all, it created an anti-incumbent furor in the electorate. Sure, that helps in gaining a majority in the Senate, but it makes defending the majority in the house much more difficult. It also gives the eventual democratic nominee in 2016 a wedge to use against his or her opponent.
3. It was meager. In the long run, what was accomplished? The concessions that were won were meager and not worth shutting down the government for 16 days. When taking a stand like this, the gains have to be worth shuttering the government for two weeks. Obviously, they were not going to delay Obamacare implementation, and in that sense, there was little to gain from the onset. All that happened was the can was kicked 4 months down the road, and we potentially go through this all again in January, long before the unpleasant memories have faded.
A better strategy for the Republicans would have been to allow Obamacare to go into effect and let people judge the program for what it is. It's problems have been apparent and well-documented. If the Republicans would have simply let it be implemented, allowed the problems to come to the forefront, they could have joined in a united chorus of "I told you so." If you elect Republicans, we can do better.
You have to pick your battles carefully, or you lose. In this case, not enough was accomplished for the GOP to declare victory.
Saturday, October 19, 2013
Tuesday, October 8, 2013
The Right and Wrong to Push the Conservative Agenda
By this title, you may have guessed that I believe that the GOP is pushing their agenda the wrong way. The government has shut down, federal employees are out of work, government services have been curtailed. People are upset. I'm going to let you in on a secret. Many in the GOP don't care. This includes Senator Mike Lee. They want to push the country into another recession. They believe that President Obama and the Democrats will be blamed and the GOP, and that super conservatives will reap the benefit at the ballot box in the coming years.
This, by the way, is the strategy the Democrats employed in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Make the president look bad, then the sitting President and his party usually garner blame when the country goes into economic chaos. Your party gets to benefit.
This is a bad strategy is so many ways. First and foremost, according to election exit polls, most people still blamed the current economic mess on President George W. Bush and the Republican Party in the last election. There is little evidence that people have forgotten that. If the economy teeters into recession again, do people see it as an extension of the Bush recession? Are you sure?
Second, the ACA, which people refer to as Obamacare, is the law of the land. It has already passed through Supreme Court muster. But perhaps an analogy to help people understand this better.
When I was in college at Weber State, our football team traveled to Reno to take on the Wolfpack when they were still members of the Big Sky Conference. The Wolfpack, at that time, recently won a national championship and was ranked in the top 5. They were heavy favorites. Weber State went into Reno and took a 49-7 lead late into the third quarter. They lost the game 56-52. In the press conference after the game, Coach Dave Arslenian blamed the loss on a missed call on an onside kick when Weber was ahead 52-49. When you blow a 6 touchdown lead, do you really want to go in public blaming the loss on the officials?
That is what the GOP is doing right now. They are blaming this lost game on the officials. Sure, the house can vote to repeal or replace the ACA. But they don't have the votes in the Senate, and even if they did, it would surely be voted by the President, who will not let his prized legacy go away. What is the right way to go?
If you want the ACA to go away, you need to keep the majority in house, gain a majority in the senate and then win the White House. The ACA will be the law of the land until 2017, like it or not. There may be nothing constitutionally wrong with the way the GOP in the house is trying to block funding of the act. There may be nothing constitutionally wrong with the way Ted Cruz and Mike Lee are acting in the Senate. However, it is a risky political strategy. There is no guarantee that the voting American is going to send Republicans to Congress in 2014 as a result of these actions.
Rather than a strategy that could sour the voting public on the GOP, actions taken by the Republicans right now have to be geared toward improving the Republican brand. They need to make people feel better about voting Republican in 2014 and 2016.
The strategy right now is to make Democrats look bad so that people won't feel good voting for Democrats in the next election cycle. There is a lot of risk in making people feel like the government doesn't represent you, that going to the polls on election day accomplishes nothing. It makes more people think in their minds, "what is the point of voting in the first place?" What does that really accomplish?
The right way to do it is the way the Ronald Reagan showed us in the 1980s. The first step is to work to build and strengthen the economy. If you can't do this at the national level, do it at the state level. Show people that they can get jobs in red states. Let people vote with their feet at first. The people in blue states will begin to notice what is happening in red states and demand similar changes in their states. Can this work? Compare Detroit to Salt Lake City and decide for yourself.
As was said so often in the 1992 election, "It's the economy." It still is. Now why in your right mind would you do anything to undermine this fragile economy? Let's say that the ACA drags down the already fragile economy without a government shutdown, who gets the blame? Perhaps, it's best that America learn this lesson the hard way. Let's hope that there is enough of a GOP party left to fix the country when it does.
Let me write one more thing about the TEA party movement. It stands for Taxed Enough Already. Nothing that the Republicans have done to shut down the government will lead to lower taxes. One thing that can lead to lower taxes is reducing the percentage of the populace on the public dole. What happens during the shutdown is that Americans who have bet their ability to be self-reliant have to apply for unemployment, housing assistance and food stamps. That doesn't sound like it will do anything to reduce taxes in the long run to me. TEA party people must work harder to understand the unintended consequences of their actions.
This, by the way, is the strategy the Democrats employed in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Make the president look bad, then the sitting President and his party usually garner blame when the country goes into economic chaos. Your party gets to benefit.
This is a bad strategy is so many ways. First and foremost, according to election exit polls, most people still blamed the current economic mess on President George W. Bush and the Republican Party in the last election. There is little evidence that people have forgotten that. If the economy teeters into recession again, do people see it as an extension of the Bush recession? Are you sure?
Second, the ACA, which people refer to as Obamacare, is the law of the land. It has already passed through Supreme Court muster. But perhaps an analogy to help people understand this better.
When I was in college at Weber State, our football team traveled to Reno to take on the Wolfpack when they were still members of the Big Sky Conference. The Wolfpack, at that time, recently won a national championship and was ranked in the top 5. They were heavy favorites. Weber State went into Reno and took a 49-7 lead late into the third quarter. They lost the game 56-52. In the press conference after the game, Coach Dave Arslenian blamed the loss on a missed call on an onside kick when Weber was ahead 52-49. When you blow a 6 touchdown lead, do you really want to go in public blaming the loss on the officials?
That is what the GOP is doing right now. They are blaming this lost game on the officials. Sure, the house can vote to repeal or replace the ACA. But they don't have the votes in the Senate, and even if they did, it would surely be voted by the President, who will not let his prized legacy go away. What is the right way to go?
If you want the ACA to go away, you need to keep the majority in house, gain a majority in the senate and then win the White House. The ACA will be the law of the land until 2017, like it or not. There may be nothing constitutionally wrong with the way the GOP in the house is trying to block funding of the act. There may be nothing constitutionally wrong with the way Ted Cruz and Mike Lee are acting in the Senate. However, it is a risky political strategy. There is no guarantee that the voting American is going to send Republicans to Congress in 2014 as a result of these actions.
Rather than a strategy that could sour the voting public on the GOP, actions taken by the Republicans right now have to be geared toward improving the Republican brand. They need to make people feel better about voting Republican in 2014 and 2016.
The strategy right now is to make Democrats look bad so that people won't feel good voting for Democrats in the next election cycle. There is a lot of risk in making people feel like the government doesn't represent you, that going to the polls on election day accomplishes nothing. It makes more people think in their minds, "what is the point of voting in the first place?" What does that really accomplish?
The right way to do it is the way the Ronald Reagan showed us in the 1980s. The first step is to work to build and strengthen the economy. If you can't do this at the national level, do it at the state level. Show people that they can get jobs in red states. Let people vote with their feet at first. The people in blue states will begin to notice what is happening in red states and demand similar changes in their states. Can this work? Compare Detroit to Salt Lake City and decide for yourself.
As was said so often in the 1992 election, "It's the economy." It still is. Now why in your right mind would you do anything to undermine this fragile economy? Let's say that the ACA drags down the already fragile economy without a government shutdown, who gets the blame? Perhaps, it's best that America learn this lesson the hard way. Let's hope that there is enough of a GOP party left to fix the country when it does.
Let me write one more thing about the TEA party movement. It stands for Taxed Enough Already. Nothing that the Republicans have done to shut down the government will lead to lower taxes. One thing that can lead to lower taxes is reducing the percentage of the populace on the public dole. What happens during the shutdown is that Americans who have bet their ability to be self-reliant have to apply for unemployment, housing assistance and food stamps. That doesn't sound like it will do anything to reduce taxes in the long run to me. TEA party people must work harder to understand the unintended consequences of their actions.
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