Saturday, October 19, 2013

In the aftermath, what did the shut-down strategy accomplish?

1.  It was masturbatory.  I know that this is an offensive word to some, but it fits.  For those of you who are unfamiliar with this word, let me define it as self-gratifying and one-sided.  In the long run, who really benefited from the stand that Ted Cruz made against the implementation of Obamacare other than Ted Cruz and a few of his allies?  Mike Lee, for example, won $700,000 in campaign donations.  But otherwise, Lee lost support at home and he will need every penny he raised to defend his seat from an in-party challenge in 2016.

2.  It was myopic.  What are the goals of the Republican Party right now?  They really should be three fold.  First, to successfully defend their majority in the House of Representatives in 2014.  Second, to gain the majority of seats in the senate in 2014.  And third, build momentum for the eventual Republican nominee for the Presidency in 2016.

How did the stand against Obamacare work toward those goals?  First of all, it created an anti-incumbent furor in the electorate.  Sure, that helps in gaining a majority in the Senate, but it makes defending the majority in the house much more difficult.  It also gives the eventual democratic nominee in 2016 a wedge to use against his or her opponent.

3.  It was meager.  In the long run, what was accomplished?  The concessions that were won were meager and not worth shutting down the government for 16 days.  When taking a stand like this, the gains have to be worth shuttering the government for two weeks.  Obviously, they were not going to delay Obamacare implementation, and in that sense, there was little to gain from the onset.  All that happened was the can was kicked 4 months down the road, and we potentially go through this all again in January, long before the unpleasant memories have faded.

A better strategy for the Republicans would have been to allow Obamacare to go into effect and let people judge the program for what it is.  It's problems have been apparent and well-documented.  If the Republicans would have simply let it be implemented, allowed the problems to come to the forefront, they could have joined in a united chorus of "I told you so."  If you elect Republicans, we can do better.

You have to pick your battles carefully, or you lose.  In this case, not enough was accomplished for the GOP to declare victory.