I am listening to a stump speech by Ted Cruz this morning, and there is one name I am hearing...Donald Trump. Nothing about Ted Cruz, united the party. Nothing about what President Ted Cruz would do for the country. Now I am certain that as soon as I post this, I am going to get a flurry of responses about how good a Ted Cruz presidency will be.
However, Ted Cruz isn't the topic of my blog post today, it's Donald Trump and about why he is winning. The answer is anger. People were upset that Barrack Obama was elected, but they were even angrier about what happened earlier in 2008. Really, the person responsible for all of this is not even Obama, and not really John McCain either.
The one thing that got everyone upset was TARP. I am not going to argue here whether or not it was needed. To most rank and file republicans, this was simply viewed as a huge occurrence of debt to bail-out privileged few, many of whom were not big republican supporters. TARP ensured that Barrack Obama was going to win in that November. Imagine being a die hard republican and seeing all of this transpire after losing both your job and your house.
This was the point in history where Republicans of all factions felt betrayed by their own party and felt that something had to be done to fix it. But this was really the last straw. All 8 years of the Bush Administration were filled with one excuse after another for spending more money and growing government. Bill Clinton, who was hated by the GOP, had balanced the budget and reduced the size of government. Sure, Newt Gingrich was the Speaker of the Republican House. But Clinton occupied the oval office. George W. Bush, who waltzed his way into the 2000 GOP nomination had done just the opposite, and with Republicans in control of Congress for 6 of his 8 years in office. From one large perspective, Bill Clinton was a more Republican president than W ever was. And once republicans put this all together, the anger erupted and it has yet to subside.
If you are concerned about the quality of the four remaining GOP contenders, keep this in mind. Donald Trump can read the anger in the party right now, and he has taken advantage of it. You probably heard about the violence at the Donald Trump rallies this past weekend. If The Donald becomes the GOP nominee, expect this to be the norm through November. Without the anger, there is no Donald. He needs it. His campaign thrives on it. The main reason why Trump should not be the nominee is because he fits the mold that the Democratic party likes to cast the Republicans in very well. He is old, he is white, he is male, he uses women (and yes, he has earned that reputation), he is rich, he is angry and he doesn't care. Besides, the Democrats just can't let the first Hispanic president be a Republican. That will ruin everything.
Other potential republicans who could have jumped into the race, all stayed away. Especially once Jeb Bush got in the race. (Nothing could have stoked the Republican anger even more than the prospect of another Bush in the White House.) No one who valued his or her political future wanted to be any part of this. Look at what happened to Romney when he threw in his two cents worth...not like a Nixon-like comeback is in the works for Good Ole Mitt, anyway. Mitt is expandable, he knows it. He threw himself on his own sword. But he still can direct where the cash flows, and he will for a few more election cycles because he knows how to make people part with it. And that speech, the one in Salt Lake a couple of weeks ago, is the only reason Marco Rubio and John Kasich are still in the race.
If you are wondering why names like Rick Scott (Florida), Nathan Deal (Georgia), Sam Brownback (Kansas), Rick Snyder (Michigan), Brian Sandoval (Nevada), Susana Martinez (New Mexico), Jack Dalrymple (North Dakota), Nikki Haley (South Carolina) and Scott Walker (Wisconsin) stayed out of the fray this time, you now know. If this all subsides by 2020, look for some of these men and women, all of whom are quality Republican Governors, to step up to the table in 4 years. For now, these 9 persons are too young and have too much of a future to jump in the mud today. They are smart to stay out of it right now, anyway. Especially Sandoval, whose name was recently floated as a nominee for the Supreme Court vacancy. Don't look for any of these 9 people to be Donald's running mate, either. They are all too smart for that.
But Republicans shouldn't panic. Whether or not Trump wins the nomination, there will be a 3rd party candidate. If Trump loses the GOP nod, it will be Trump. He has a big enough ego to make it happen. If Trump wins the GOP nod, someone will step up and give conservatives someone to vote for. And don't worry, it probably will not be Mitt Romney. Either way, Trump steals enough angry voters away from the democratic party nominee (and there are also angry democrats) to deny the eventual winner her political mandate. And we all learn our lessons and regroup for 2020...or at least that is what I hope will happen.
What has to happen going forward is the Republican leaders not only need to recognize the anger, but come up with a plan to overcome it. Balancing the budget is one thing, but it is too broad and has too many other issues that it is dependent upon. The same with immigration reform. Besides, any immigration package that treats Hispanic immigrants differently than others would be unconstitutional, the constitution requires uniform laws. Speaking of the constitution, the constitution itself is too broad. And maybe, just maybe we have come across the real problem. When it comes to politics, the Democrats fight battles, where the Republicans fight wars.
Wars are won a battle at a time. At this time, I can't identify a battle that should be the focus of the election. Perhaps the battle is funding to fight terrorism. Improving police-community relations to reduce crime. Reducing the prison population because large prisons are not fiscally conservative, anyway. Perhaps its the college football playoffs. I'm only grasping at straws. But something will come up. And those running for office in the future will decide what battles to fight. Hopefully, it is something narrow enough and a winning one for the GOP. Much like the cold war was at one time. Focus on the deficit, yes, but on spending. Perhaps one battle at a time.
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