I found six point that would cost Obama's chances at reelection in 2012. Here is how he is doing as of February 2011.
How is Obama doing?
1. He must avoid a serious primary challenge. So far, no one serious from the Democratic party has risen to challenge Obama. This would need to be a state governor, senator or cabinet secretary. So far, Hillary Clinton seems to be serious about her current job. Obama grade so far A-
2. He must unite his party. The aggressive republicans in the House and in the various state houses are giving the Democrats something to unite about. The Dems do a better job at uniting when the opposition is strong than the Republicans do. Obama grade so far A.
3. He must not let the campaign get too personal. Stuff like this will not help the President. Obama grade so far D+
4. The economy needs to improve and Americans need to return to work. U3, the traditional employment number is at 9.7 percent in March. The U6 rate, which includes those who are marginally looking for work and those who have taken part-time jobs to help pay the bills is at 16.9 percent for the same period. It does not count those who have completely given up. This is still above where it used to be. Obama grade so far D+.
5. Perceived popularity of his policies. You can be the judge of that right now. Obama grade so far C. I improved his grade slightly with the capture of bin Laden, but that will be a memory next November. If this had been the October surprise of 2012, it would be much better. B-
6. Try to keep a strong left-leaning third-party challenger out of the race. Bloomberg is leaning toward getting into the race as an independent. This will not be good for the President. Obama grade so far D+
Obama so far: C+
How are the Republicans doing?
1. Picking a strong candidate. Michelle Bachmann and Ron Paul, who won the straw poll at CPAC, have popular policies but there is no historical precedent for their candidacy. History is against them. Trump was also strong until his tirade of F bombs and until Seth Meyers put him into place. Right now, Romney holds a slight lead over Huckabee. Both would be strong nominees for the GOP. Neither is the clear front-runner. GOP grade B.
2. Non-economy strategies? How about a bill requiring insurance companies cover physicals, smoking cessation, physician supervised exercise plans, early cancer screenings and other methods to lower heath care costs? Right now, the GOP alternatives to Obama policies really do lack creativity. GOP grade C-.
3. Avoiding wedge issues like immigration and gay rights? You be the judge on that one. Right now, the GOP is stepping into it with both feet. GOP grade D-.
4. Pushing the President on unpopular items? GOP grade B+.
5. Tone? Some one needs to silence Governor Palin or at least she needs to learn that she does not need to voice her opinion on every issue. Trump silenced Palin, Newt and Bachmann for a while...but not for long. B-.
GOP so far: C+
As of May, 2011, there is a slight edge to Obama. Once the GOP decides on a candidate and a message, things get a lot tougher for the President.
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