Donald Trump, Candidate...

Donald Trump is getting some serious poll number as a potential Republican nominee.  I have to say in response, really?

If you have followed this blog, you know that I have pointed out the historical futility of the very wealthy running for President.  Certainly, politics is not a poor-man's game.  It takes some degree of personal wealth to run for political office.  Usually, a candidate leaves his or her regular job for a period of time to focus on a campaign.  Those that lack the personal wealth need to have some degree of financial backing from supporters to be successful.  George W. Bush, for example, was wealthy enough to be a part owner of a major league baseball team.  It seems that our most recent presidents had some degree of wealth or like Bill Clinton and Barrack Obama were well backed, life-long public servants.

But the wealthy that have eventually become our Cheif Executive, also worked their way through other minor offices before becoming the President.  Those who have tried to short-cut their way to the White House have traditionally failed.  Three names comes to mind when speaking of those who tried short cuts.  They are H Ross Perot, Wendell Wilkie and William Randolf Hearst.

Perot is the IT Billionaire who was famous for his charts showing the need for governmental restraint in the 1992 election.  He wooed fiscal conservatives away from George W. Bush and gave the 1992 election to Bill Clinton.  But he lost momentum in the campaign after ending it and then beginning it again.  Then he chose languishing Admiral Stockdale as a running mate.  He could not get enough momentum to overcome Clinton.

With World War II raging in Europe in 1940, and the United States yet to be involved, the Republican Party was split between isolationists and interventionists.  They were ripe for a dark horse candidate to rise up and take the nomination.  Wilkie, who never before held office nor a high military rank, beat out Senator Robert Taft from Ohio (Son of former President and Supreme Court Justice William Howard Taft) for the nomination.  Wilkie campaigned to do everything to help the embattled British and Russian allies short of formal declaration of War, where Taft was concerned that War could lead America further down the road to Socialism.  Taft and the other major candidates were isolationists.  Just days before the GOP convention, France fell to the Nazi's, and the tide turned toward Wilkie. But his campaign lacked a consistent message and Roosevelt easily won.  Wilkie was never able to unite the party.  After the election, Wilkie turned to back Roosevelt programs and became a key member of his team.

I have been able to find no other evidence of a very rich individual making an impact on the presidential race as a candidate.  Others may have tried, but realized that their money would speak louder than their candidacy.  The same could be the case for Trump.  Some of the wealthy will have tried other offices before running for president.

Hearst tried for, but never won the nomination of his party and when news of an extra-marital affair came to light, he retired from politics.

It is time for Republicans who are smart to fight the Trump candidacy and unite behind someone else.  There are reasons why a Trump candidacy is bad.

1.  Party unity.  With all of his money and business sense he needs to be taken serious, but let down gradually.  If Trump decides to run as a third party candidate, we may as well swear in Obama for another 4 years.  Both GOP leaders and Trump know this well, and this plays to Trump's advantage.  Donald Trump is an ego, perhaps the biggest ego in the world and has the money to support it.  He knows his wealth holds power over the party.  Someone that rich has no reason to be loyal to the party or the platform.  And therefore, he will not be able to unite the GOP behind his candidacy.  The people that he needs to support his campaign may say all the right things publicly, but will likely not unite behind him.

2.  Political experience.  There is a big difference between running a business enterprise and running the country.  How can Trump unite Congress and get them to be in step with him when he does not have the power to fire them?  The President of the United States does not call all of the shots, especially in powers that the Constitution gives specifically to the Congress, like the power of the budget.  In business, the executive branch is over the legislative branch.  In Government, these branches are (in theory) equal.  This will be an adjustment that Trump may not be able to make.

3.  Message.  In business, it is much easier to change your message and then get the masses to follow along.  It is not so easy to do in politics.  One will be labeled as a turncoat or a flip-flop, even when evidence supports making a change in policy.  The message needs to be consistent, even on social issues.  How does Trump feel about Global Warming, Abortion, Gay Rights, etc?  Will he change his mind after winning the nomination, like Wilkie did?  Will he change his mind, change the sails in one direction one day, and then return to the old course the next?

4.  How the masses react?  In business, it is your loyal customer that dictate how the business is run.  It is they, the loyal customers that you, as a businessman can't afford to lose.  Word of mouth is a powerful advertising message in business.  The good words of your loyal customers are worth more than any advertising campaign.  In politics, it is those who do not support you that you need to woo.  It is those who do not normally vote for your party or your message that have the power to elect you.  Trump would have to find a way to bring loyal conservative Republicans, Independents, some Democrats and those who normally do not vote at all out to vote for him.  Generally, word of mouth advertising does not work in politics as people do not like to discuss politics among friends.

5.  Experience.  In our history, only Wendell Wilkie received the nomination of his party after never serving as a Vice President, Governor, Senator, Member of the House of Representatives, Cabinet  Secretary, Supreme Court Justice, Criminal Judge or Military Officer.  H Ross Perot was the only serious 3rd-party candidate to gain a significant percentage of the vote who also never held a major office.  With all of the anti-career politician talk, certainly Americans prefer someone with a little experience as a president.  Could Trump run as governor or mayor of New York before running for President?  How about a term in the Senate?  He certainly would not take being VP very well.

6.  Perception.  Of course, Trump will become a media darling.  His candidacy makes it look as if the Republicans are desperate and willing to nominate just about anyone to knock Obama out of the White House.  Republicans should realize that the Trump candidacy is more than another media stunt.  He is serious.  And primary voters should understand how the Trump candidacy will play out when he is up against Obama in November of 2012.

Trump may be able to learn a lot by looking over the failed campaigns of Wilkie and Perot and learning from them.  If he does, his campaign may be successful.  My gut feeling is that this will not happen.  Trump's money would be better served if he supported a candidate who has a better profile for President, and aligned closely with the Trump philosophy...whatever that is.

However, like Wilkie, the Trump candidacy could be bad for the GOP in the long run.  The Wilkie candidacy left the Republican party without course and direction and it would be another 12 years before the nation would elect another Republican to the White House.

If Trump were to ask my advice, I would advise him that if he really wants to be the President to run for Governor of New York state or Mayor of New York City first and to serve at least one complete term.  This will show the American people that he is serious about politics and can lead a government.  This will also help him flesh out his political philosophy and develop a consistent message.  This, after all, is the way that others have done it.

Recent presidents that had some degree of wealth or fame outside of public service before entering politics...
George W. Bush--Part owner of the Texas Rangers Baseball Club.  Political family.  Former Texas Governor.
Ronald Reagan--Actor.  Former California Governor.
Jimmy Carter--Successful (considered wealthy) businessman and farmer.  Former Georgia Governor.
John F. Kennedy--Family wealth.  Former Congressman and Senator from Massachusetts.
Harry Truman--Successful businessman in Kansas City before he ran for the US Senate.


Life-long public servants of recent presidents.
Barrack Obama
Bill Clinton
Gerald Ford
Richard Nixon
Lyndon Johnson
Dwight Eisenhower