Nominating the right candidate...it's important.

In the election of 2004, George W. Bush was vulnerable.  He was waging an increasingly unpopular war.  The economy was limping.  Bush won, but probably not by a comfortable enough margin and he won without carying a single state north nor east of Pennsylvania.  Could it be that the democrats nominated the wrong candidate in 2004?

Out of the declared candidates in 2004, there were 5 democrats with the historical precedent to defeat a sitting President.  (In our history, only former senators and state governors have ever defeated a sitting president, and only state governors have pulled off the feat since 1888).  Of those 5, there were 4 senators and one state governor, former Governor Howard Dean of Vermont.  In 2004, there were other democratic governors in office, who had completed at least four years in office, but not many were interested in running for the White House.  They inluded Gary Locke of Washington and Ben Nelson of Nebraska, but none of them had the National coverage of Howard Dean, who was the front runner heading into the primaries.  But the Dean campaign stumbled out of the gate.  The Democrats were left with the campaign of Kerry, who in the end could not stand up to Bush.

In 2004, the right candidate could have defeated Bush, but was no where to be found.  Here is my analysis of those who failed to defeat a sitting President and if there was a better candidate for the opposite pary available.

2004--Senator John Kerry of Nebraska lost to President George W. Bush.  Who could have defeated Bush?  The only former or current state governor who ran for the Democratic nomination was Howard Dean.  There were some personality issues that likely cost Dean the nomination and in the end, cost the Democrats the White House.

1996--Senator Bob Dole lost to President Bill Clinton.  Who could have defeated Clinton? Long-time Tennesse Governor Lamar Alexander, who had served as the Secratary of Education under George HW Bush had the historical precedence to defeat Bill Clinton.  But his campaign never got traction in the early primaries.  Possibly because the federal Department of Education is considered as non-essential by many fiscal conservatives.  Clinton did not win 50% of the popular vote either time he was elected.

1984--Former Vice President Walter Mondale lost to President Ronald Reagan.  Who could have defeated Reagan?  No one.  In 1984, Reagan's popularity with the public was soaring and there was likely no chance any Democrat could have defeated him.  There were no former or current state governors running for the Democratic nod in 1984.  Mario Cuomo of New York had a lot of traction before the campaign but decided not to run.

1972--Senator George McGovern lost to President Richard Nixon.  Who could have defeated Nixon?  If George Wallace, former Alabama Governor, had not run as an independent in 1968, he could have easily captured the Democratic nod and possibly defeated Nixon.

1964--Senator Barry Goldwater lost to President Lyndon Johnson.  Who could have defeated Johnson?Governor Nelson Rockerfeller of New York was a front runner early on, but could not fight off rumors that an extra-marital affair led to his divorce from his first wife and the loss of the custody of his children 2 years ealier.  This sort of thing seems to common now-a-days that most of us would not consider this a disqualification.  But things were different in 1964.

1956--Governor Adlai Stevenson lost to President Dwight Eisenhower.  Who could have defeated Eisenhower?  Probably no one.  Stevenson did not have the historical precendence because he had been defeated by Eisenhower 4 years earlier when he only had 2 years as Governor under his belt.  No other governor was interested in the nomination and the Democrats nominated Stevenson a second time.

1948--Governor Thomas E Dewey lost to President Harry Truman.  Who could have defeated Truman?  Governor Earl Warren of California was also running for the Republican nod in 1948.  Warren became the Vice Presidential running mate to Dewey.  Warren won the popular vote in the primaries, but lost in convention.  The majority of convention delegates in 1948 were unpledged in those days as the majority of states did not hold primaries.  In my analysis, this election, like 1988, is where the losing ticket was upside down.  Had the VP nominee become the presidential nominee (In 1988 Bentsen/Dukakis would have been more successful than Dukakis/Bentsen) the election would have changed.  In 1948, Dewey was running for the White House at the top of the ticket for the second time.  The first time, he had only two years in office as Governor of New York.  Dewey had two historical strikes against him.  2nd-time nominees rarely win and he did not have enough experience as governor the first time.  Warren would eventually become the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.  His court was monumental in the some civil rights decisions and criminal rights.  Perhaps in the end in 1948, Dewey's popularity led to a malaise in the electorate that kept a lot of people home on election day, especially in Ohio, California and Illinois where the election turned.  Again, California was Warren's home state.

1944--Governor Dewey lost to President Franklin Roosevelt.  Who could have defeated Roosevelt?  Probably no one.  Americans would not have considered Changing the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces at this point in World War II.  However, the eventual VP nominee, Governor John W. Bricker of Ohio was probably a better choice in spite of Dewey's popularity.

1940--Lawyer/Businessman Wendell Wilkie lost to President Franklin Roosevelt.  Who could have defeated Roosevelt?  probably no one.  There were no state governors running for the GOP nomination in 1940.  The other major candidates were opposed to US involvement in World War II and the GOP convention was held just days after France fell to the Nazis.  There were not enough electorial votes in close states to turn the election.