Many GOP watchers are predicting a brokered convention. Some are even hoping for one. That may not really be what they want.
A brokered convention will happen when none of the GOP candidates have enough delegates to win, and the convention votes to nominate a compromise candidate, not one of the current declared candidates. This has happened twice in recent history. In 1920, the GOP delegates could not decide between General Leonard Wood and Governor Frank Lowden of Illinois. Warren G. Harding emerged as a compromise candidate and the convention chose Calvin Coolidge as as his running mate. Harding denied rumors of his checkered past. The rest is history.
The GOP Convention of 1920 was a time when the party bosses were more powerful and the rank and file were more in the dark than today. This convention was the epitome of a smoke-filled, back-room deal. This is not the type of deal that will fly with the type of voters needed to defeat Barrack Obama today.
Another such convention was the GOP convention of 1940 where Wendell Wilkie emerged from nowhere to win. At the end of the primary season, the vote was split between 3 different candidates, Senators Arthur Vandenburg of Michigan, Howard Taft of Ohio and Mr. Thomas Dewey a federal prosecutor from New York who put mob bosses in jail. Taft was the early favorite, but between the end of the Primary season and the beginning of the convention, Nazi Germany overran France leaving Great Britain in the fight of it's life. Both Taft and Vandenburg were isolationists and it appeared that US entry into the war was inevitable. Dewey was the early leader in the convention, but his lack of foreign policy experience was costly.
That is where Wilkie became the knight in shining armor. But he could not deliver the White House to the GOP and Roosevelt easily won an unprecedented third term.
A contested convention is where there is no clear nominee after the primary season, and the convention delegates chose the nominee from one of the declared candidates. It is not the same as a brokered convention. Remember, if a compromise candidate is chosen, it is a brokered convention. If there is no compromise candidate, it is a contested convention. There is a difference.
The GOP had a contested conventions in 1948, where by-then Governor Dewey was nominated; 1952 where Eisenhower won the nod; 1964 where Barry Goldwater was nominated; 1968 where Richard Nixon beat out other future presidents Ronald Reagan and George HW Bush and 1976 where President Ford fended off another strong challenge from Governor Reagan.
You may have noticed a pattern. When the GOP had a contested convention, they lost unless there was an open seat. In 1948, 1964 and 1976, there was an incumbent, and the GOP lost. In 1952 and 1968 there was no incumbent and the GOP won. During an open contest, a contested convention is a really good idea. It brings the right kind of publicity to the party. Voters are confident their candidate has been properly vetted. Hopefully, the other party's convention is also contested as was the case in both 1952 and 1968. (In fact, the 1968 democratic convention was brokered because the de-facto nominee, Robert F. Kennedy, was gunned down right after winning the California primary and securing enough delegate votes to win the nod.) When there is an incumbent, a contested convention is a bad idea.
As evidence, let's see what happened in the other party. In 1980, President Jimmy Carter had 60% of the delegates going into the convention, Edward Kennedy refused to drop out and concede, Secretary of State Edwin Muskie was put forward as a compromise candidate, but Carter still won on the first ballot. The GOP nominee, Ronald Reagan had a much easier time in the primaries, was not challenged at the convention, and won the General Election quite handily.
Again, when there is an open seat for the White House, a long-protracted primary battle and a contested convention are good things. But when there is an incumbent in the White House, it is bad. It is bad for the candidate that can not secure the nomination early.
Look at the three times since WWII that the incumbent was defeated...Bush in 1992, Carter in 1980 and Ford in 1976 you find that their challengers; Bill Clinton in 1992, Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Jimmy Carter in 1976 were de facto nominees long before the convention. And except for Bush in 1992, the incumbents had trouble gaining re-nomination and their candidacy was in doubt when the convention began. If you are an incumbent, you do not want trouble in gaining the renomination for your party, you want your opponent to have lots of trouble.
Super Tuesday is around the corner. Right now, Romney has 143 delegates, Santorum has 62 delegates, Gingrich has 32 delegates and Paul has 20. Romney has 55% of the delegates so far. If this trend continues, if Romney has 400 or more delegates after Super Tuesday, then Santorum and the others collectively are not gaining ground. It will be futile for them to remain in the race and it will make the party look more disunited and weaken the chances of the eventual nominee.
In fact, Santorum has 23% of the delegates right now. He needs to increase his delegate count to above 106 delegates to be gaining ground. It would be wise for Santorum to have an end game in mind if he does not win at least 64 delegates in the next week.
Gingrich is probably going to win Georgia, and is likely to gain ground as a result, but he needs to consider getting out of the race if he fails to win anything outside of Georgia.
Ron Paul is more key to this than people realize. He may not win very many delegates from this point and beyond, but he could help avoid a contested convention and stay in until Santorum and Gingrich drop out. If Romney is just short after all of the primaries are over, then Ron Paul's delegates could put Romney over the top. I suspect that is the reason why Romney is playing nice with Ron Paul, but I do not know what Ron Paul is getting in return.
I have read comments and blogs by some hoping that a brokered convention will bring them a conservative knight in shining armor. History says that this is wishful thinking, especially if the incumbent has been campaigning from the Rose Garden.
If the GOP nomination battle goes on much longer, it will be bad news for whoever the nominee is. It will be bad for the Republican Party and it may even spell trouble in close Senatorial and Congressional races.
Republicans should hope for a primary that will wrap-up soon. The sooner that the GOP can make this election about Obama, and stop tearing down one another, the better. A contested convention, if history is your guide, when an incumbent is in the race, is never a good idea.
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