There is a lot of analysis out there as to why Obama won. Tonight I list one that I agree with and one that I disagree with.
The one I agree with.
Mr. Optimism. I do not remember a lot about the election of 1976, but I have a good recollection of every election since. It seems that in every election that I can remember the candidate for President that displays the greater amount of optimism wins. The only election that comes close to being an exception to this is 1988. Bush (GHWB) went negative on Dukakis and he did not know how to respond.
When I read this theory in Newsweek on line today, I found myself taken back to the scene in "Back to the Future Part II." Marty McFly (Michael J. Fox) enters "Cafe 80's" and is greeted by a Ronald Reagan hologram which says, "Welcome to Cafe 80's where it is always m-m-m-morning in America." Ronald Reagan usually had that smile on his face when he spoke and was the picture of American Optimism. Bill Clinton was Mr. Optimism in 1992 when GHWB did not know how to react to the minor recession of the early 90s. W was more optimistic than Mr. Inconvinient Truth and Mr. Swift Boat.
The one I disagree with:
Sarah Palin. She is the "Not Ready for Prime Time" VP candidate. But the reason I disagree is this--I dare you to name someone better. Most Utahans will say, Mitt. How would Mitt have been better for McCain. Palin energized the GOP base...the "babies, guns and Jesus" crowd. Mitt would have had trouble, once again his religion would have been the issue. Most of the other potential VP candidates would have brought some baggage to the McCain campaign.
Condie--Too close to Bush.
Mitt--Religion
Crist--Family (Divorced since 1980...in a "very long engagement" nudge, nugde...)
Pawlenty--Experience
Jindal--Experience
Perry--Bush
Huntsman--Religion and Region
Lamb--Region
Rasicot--Bush and Region
Liberman--Party and been there done that.
Hutcheson--Senator and age and Texas (Bush).
I just do not think that McCain could have picked someone else. He picked the best choice available to him. The biggest liability to McCains campaign was George W Bush.
Huntsman for President.
John M Huntsman, Jr could be a good challenger for Obama in 2012. Why? Many of us here in Utah are saying, "recession, what recession?" We are feeling it here in the Beehive State. The banking industry has a foothold in the state, but most of the banking is inustrial. My company is growing here in Utah even though they are struggling world-wide. Utah is bucking many trends. Huntsman is every bit as popular in his own state and Palin is in her own state. But Huntsman has done it without taxing business and giving gifts to citizens. And Utah is one of the few states where the Republicans had sweeping victories.
Huntsman has some of the same liabilities that Mitt had. He is the grandson of the late LDS leader David B. Haight. Hopefully, one of the lessons that the religious right learned in this election is that Mormons can help their cause. Look at what the LDS church did for Prop 8.
Another problem for Huntsman is that he is a bit on the green side for a Republican. This may not play to well for some Republicans, especially when compared to Palin. It does not play well for some here in Utah. (This former Boy Scout has little problem with how he is doing it.) But again, I challenge you to find someone better.
Huntsman is also a very optomistic person. I think that many have set the bar too high for Obama and some of that optomism may wear off in four years. If this is the case, I think that Utah's governor could be the next President of the United States.
Oh yeah, there is one more problem. Mary Kay has to say give her OK. She does not like campaigning. I think it will be harder for us to convince her, than it will be to convince him.
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