A lot of people are focusing on the election of 2012. But there are the mid-term elections coming in just two year. Every member of the house is up for re-election as well as 1/3 of the senate. This includes our junior senator in Utah, Bob Bennett. Mr. Bennett, who has been representing our state for 16 years, wants Utahans to send him to Washington for a fourth term. I am shaking my head at the idea that our JUNIOR senator is seriously thinking of a 4th term.
But the writing is on the wall for Mr. Bennett. Why do I think so?
-15% of Salt Lake County residents voted for John McCain for President and Peter Caroon for Salt Lake County Mayor.
-Salt Lake County is about 45% of the population in Utah.
-With the Democrats close to getting 60 senators, they will likely through a lot of money at 3 or 4 winnable senate races.
-Obama did better in Utah than any Democrat since LBJ. The dems have some momentum.
-Bennett lost a lot of grass roots support in Utah for backing comprehensive immigration reform...and then reporting to the state organization convention that the failure was due to the labor unions. (Come on...guest workers won't unionize? Are you kidding me?)
-Bennett supported the bank bailout that was passed before the election. No exactly the fiscally conservative thing to do.
-Utah had a non-seen-in-decades 68% voter turnout in 2008. We will be lucky to get 25% voter turn-out in a mid-term election.
Reasons why Bennett is not in trouble.
-Utah is a GOP state and even the most popular democrat can not beat him in a statewide race.
-A Democrat could win Salt Lake County, but this is a state-wide race and there is no electoral system. There is no way a Democrat could win Utah, Davis or Cache county. McCain still won over 60% of the vote in Utah.
-Utah had a non-seen-in-decades 68% voter turnout in 2008. We will be lucky to get 25% voter turn-out in a mid-term election.
My analysis.
Bennett is in trouble because his support has eroded at the grass-roots level in the GOP party. His support of comprehensive immigration reform cost him a lot of that support. He was heckled at the state GOP organizing convention in 2007 because of this. His support of the bail-out plan will not help.
Bennett is likely to have the same kind of fight in the convention and primary that sank Chris Cannon this year. Right now, however, I do not know of anyone that is bold enough to make the move. Certainly, some GOP insider has seen this opening. There may be another Jason Chaffetz out there ready to make the move. If you know of someone, let me know. Micheal Ridgeway need not apply. He is no Jason Chaffetz.
It may depend on who emerges as an Democratic opponent. Peter Caroon, currently the Salt Lake County mayor is one who's star is rising. Jim Matheson may decide that he wants to move to the upper house. But it will need to be someone who has that kind of name recognition. But I must admit that Caroon scares me the most. He could be the more fiscal conservative on the ballot against Bennett. Matheson could also look more fiscally conservative than Bennett. Caroon was the one that almost killed the Real Salt Lake Stadium deal. Matheson joined Bishop in voting against the banking bailout.
If Bennet were to decide not to run in 2010, there are a number of GOP contenders that could take his place. Perhaps Governor Huntsman would like to run for the Senate in 2010. (Although some would like him to run for the big seat at the other end of Pennsylvania Ave.) Others that come to mind would be Lt. Gov Herbert. State senate president John Valentine ran unopposed. Enid Greene could complete her comback by getting to the Senate. But none of these people would ever run against Bennett if he decides to run for a 4th term. The GOP would certainly get a weaker candidate if Bennett has to face a challenge from within the party in 2010. Bennett should do the honorable thing and retire.
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