Does it matter who the GOP nominee is? Don't most people vote along party lines? Let's take a state by state look at what is going on. Please keep in mind, that there has not yet beet a complete state-by-state poll. But, there has been generic polling. And many people judge which state goes to which candidate based upon recent history...at least from 1988 on. Here is how the current picture looks in the electoral college.
1. Obama is probably going to win these states regardless of who the GOP nominee is, unless something really bad for Obama happens...
California (55)
Connecticut (10)
Delaware (3)
DC (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (20)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (11)
New Jersey (14)
New York (29)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Washington (12)
Therefore, Obama can count on at least 175 votes in the electoral College.
2. The eventual GOP nominee is can probably count on the following states, unless something really bad for the GOP happens.
Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Georgia (16)
Idaho (4)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (38)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)
The GOP nominee can count on at least 159 electoral votes.
3. These States are leaning toward Obama but could turn to the GOP.
Iowa (6)
Maine (4)
Michigan (16)
Minnesota (10)
Nevada (6)
New Mexico (5)
Oregon (7)
If these states hold for Obama, that would put him at 229 electoral votes.
4. These states are leaning toward the GOP nominee.
Arizona (11)
Indiana (11)
Missouri (10)
If these states hold for the GOP, that would put the GOP nominee at 191 electoral votes.
5. At this time, these are the battleground states.
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
There are 270 needed to win. The GOP will need to win 79 electoral votes in the battle-ground states in order to win the election and hold the states that are usually GOP states.
Here is how things are going in these battle-ground states...
Colorado
Obama vs Gingrich
Obama vs Romney
The latest polls show Obama has a lead over both, but Romney is closer to Obama than Gingrich is. That gives Obama another 9 electoral votes...which puts the election at 239 to 191 for Obama regardless of who the GOP nominee is.
Florida
Obama vs Gingrich
Obama vs Romney
The latest polls show Romney can beat Obama in Florida, but Gingrich is well behind. This means that if Obama is going against Gingrich, Obama is up 268 to 191. If it is Romney, Obama is now up 239 to 220.
New Hampshire
Obama vs Gingrich
Obama vs Romney
Here is another state which Romney appears to deliver for the GOP that Gingrich can not. If Gingrich is the nominee, Obama has now won the election with 272 electoral votes to 191 for Gingrich. If Romney is the GOP nominee, Obama is now up 239 to 224.
North Carolina
Obama vs Gingrich
Obama vs Romney
If Gingrich is the nominee, this is another Obama State. Obama is now up 287 to 191 if Newt becomes the GOP nominee. If Romney becomes the GOP nominee, the state is still a toss up. All polls are within the margin of error, except there are a couple that show Romney ahead by 9 points or more. Let's, for the sake of argument give this one to Romney. Obama is still at 239 and Romney is now at 239.
Ohio
Obama vs Gingrich
Obama vs Romney
Ohio goes to Obama regardless of who the GOP winner is. If Newt, Obama is now ahead 305 to 191 and the election is entering landslide stage. Romney is still in it. Obama is now leading 257 to 239.
Pennsylvania
Obama vs Gingrich
Obama vs Romney
It's still early, but polls shows Obama ahead of Romney in Pennsylvania, but it is within the margin of error. However, at this point, Pennsylvania goes to Obama. If Newt, it is now a landslide. Obama is ahead 325 to 191. If Romney, it is 277 to 239. If Romney wins Pennsylvania, he is ahead 259 to 257.
Virginia
Obama vs Gingrich
Obama vs Romney
Romney appears to be the victor in Virginia vs Obama, where this is another state that Gingrich loses to the President. If Newt, Obama is more than comfortably ahead 338 to 191. If Romney, the gap is closed, it is now 277 to 252. If Romney wins Pennsylvania, he comes close to winning it all. He win it all 272, where at this point Obama would only have 257.
Wisconsin
Obama vs Gingrich--No Data
Obama vs Romney
I will give this state to Obama. That puts the final score at 338 to 191 for Obama if Newt is the nominee. 287 to 252 for Obama if Romney is the nominee. Obama beats Newt by 147 votes and Romney by 35 votes and that is a big difference. If Romney wins Pennsylvania, the final count would be 272 to 267...a razor-thin victory.
Does it make a difference?
A landslide Obama victory, where the GOP nominee does not win any key battle-ground states, means an Obama mandate no matter what happens in Congress. If the election is close and the GOP holds on to the House and takes the Senate, the mandate from the people is not clear and Obama will have to moderate his policies to make his second term meaningful.
Now, do you understand why the GOP establishment is worried about having Newt as the nominee? In fact, according to Real Clear Politics, Gingrich would be the worst person for the GOP to nominate. Paul, Santorum and Romney are clearly much better than Gingrich going against Obama.
Popular Vote.
In the national popular vote, Obama is ahead of Romney by 2.4%, which is within the standard margin of error of 3%.
Obama is ahead of Ron Paul by an average of 5.8%, which is not an insurmountable lead with 9 months to go.
Obama is ahead of Rick Santorum by an average of 10%. Again, not an insurmountable lead at this point.
Obama is ahead of Gingrich by an average of 12%. Not an impossible lead, but at this point, Newt is the weakest candidate the GOP can nominate to run against Obama. But Newt, as we have shown, loses in every key battle-ground state.
Romney will need every vote he can get to beat Obama, but most important to Romney is Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire and Virginia. Most important to Obama is Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. That is where this election will be won or lost.
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