Barrack Obama's disapproval rating is historically high for an incumbent president, and that means that the GOP candidate, whomever he is, should have an easy time in November, right? Not so fast. Recent history shows that approval polls are not a predictor of success when going for a second term. Here are a couple of examples.
Going into 1980, Jimmy Carter's approval ratings were at 56%. Given that, he should have won a second term in a landslide. But there were some problems that Carter has leading up to the election. First, he faced a strong in-party challenge from Ted Kennedy. He lost confidence from many moderate voters with his handling of the Iran Hostage Crisis. He boycotted the 1980 Moscow Olympics. And he had a stagnant economy to deal with that was struggling with high inflation and high unemployment...or stagflation. Finally, he had a challenger from the GOP who could really connect with people. Historically, he should have easily won, but it did not happen.
In 1972, Richard Nixon's approval ratings were at 49%, just one point higher than Barrack Obama. Nixon should not have won a second term, but he did. Nixon had some foreign policy successes in China and the Soviet Union. Nixon was unopposed from his own party during the primaries. He had a very liberal challenger in George McGovern, who lost a lot of moderate voters to the Republican incumbent. The main mistake the democrats made in 1972 was in who they nominated to challenge Nixon.
So why isn't Obama going to be so easy to defeat in November. First, he has not been challenged from within his party. No other democrat has stepped up to offer an in party challenge. Second, not all of Obama's endeavors have been a failure. For example, he ended the war in Iraq and brought Osama bin Laden to justice. The economy may be sluggish, but does show signs of improvement.
Most important of all is that the Republicans need to nominate someone who can put up a formidable challenge. The race is now down to 4. Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum. Three of those four men are viewed as being too extreme. Mitt is the moderate one. And now Gingrich is attacking Romney's business record, of all things. Really? Don't we all wish that our income was solely from capital gains?
There was a poll this week that showed Ron Paul ahead of Obama in a hypothetical race. But I find Paul's policies appealing to the emotional republican and not to the logical one. I also don't think that Paul has a serious shot at winning the nomination.
Santorum would be the 2012 GOP analog or George McGovern. His views are too extreme and that is the reason why he is a former senator and not a current senator. As Seth Meyers at Saturday Night Live said, "Rick Santorum is so anti-gay, he can't even dress well."
Newt is making this race interesting. But he has hurt his chances at winning the White House by the way he has attacked Romney. He is attacking capitalism by attacking Romney's business record. It will do more than hurt him a little bit when going against Obama, it will cost him the main battering-ram that Republicans are using to attack the President. How can one argue for a freer business environment when one argues against someone benefiting from it? The fact that this attack is working against Romney in the Primary Election Cycle shows that it will work against Republicans in the General Election. It will not only cost Gingrich a chance at beating Obama in the fall. It will play right into Obama's hands when asking for more democrats in the House and Senate. As one mind superior to mine, Charles Krauthammer at Fox News said, "It is suicide for the Republicans to take this angle against Romney."
What Newt should be doing is saying, "He Mitt is a Rich guy and I am envious. But it is not bad that he is so wealthy. If you elect me, I will do what I can to ensure that as many Americans as possible become as wealthy as Mitt Romney."
In other words, do not make Mitt's business acumen a battering ram to use against him. Play it as a success story that even Newt Gingrich can benefit from, that every American can benefit from. Tell them about how Obama has cost us the chance to create more men and women like Mitt Romney. Tell them that Mitt's offshore holding represent a problem with the Tax Code and not a problem with Mitt Romney. Tell them that Mitt's donations to his church are an example of how the wealthy can help out under privileged Americans, if they were not paying so much of their income to government for transfer programs. Use Mitt as a positive example of what American can be if they elect you. And call of the wolves.
Otherwise what will happen? Even though Obama has a 48% approval rate, he will win in November. It has happened before.
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