The Winner of the Louisiana GOP Primary was...Barrack Obama

Before Louisiana


Romney 563 
Santorum 263 
Gingrich 135 
Paul 60 


There were 1273 delegates left in play. 1144 needed to win the nomination 


Romney needed 581 of the remaining delegates to win the nomination...in other words, he needs to win 45.6% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination before the convention. 


Santorum needed 881 delegates or 69.2% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination. 


Gingrich needed 1009 or 79.2% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination. 


Paul needed 1084 or 85.1% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination. 


To force a brokered convention, Santorum, Gingrich and Paul needed to collectively win 693 or 54.4% of the remaining delegates. 


After Louisiana*


*Assumes the final delegate count from Louisiana is Romney 9, Santorum 33 and 4 unallocated.  Will be adjusted once the count is complete.


Romney 572
Santorum 296
Gingrich 135
Paul 50


There are 1231 delegates left in play.  1144 needed to win the nomination.


-Romney needs 572 delegates or 46.4% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination.


-Santorum needs 844 delegates or 71.8% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination.


-Gingrich needs 1009 delegates or 81.9% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination.


-Paul needs 1084 delegates or 88.0% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination.


-To force a brokered convention, Santorum, Gingrich and Paul need to collectively win 664 of the remaining delegates or 53.9% of the remaining delegates.


Analysis:


Santorum won Louisiana, but is actually farther from the nomination because the pie got smaller.  But his campaign knows this; it is virtually impossible for him to catch Romney.  If this were a basketball game, Santorum just went on a 33-9 run, but is still very far behind.  If his goal is to get a brokered convention and hope that delegates changes their support, he did get closer, but did he get enough?  


There are 14 states and DC that vote between now and the Texas primary.  Out of those, only 5 are Santorum States.  Only Pennsylvania (Santorum's home state), Nebraska, West Virginia, Kentucky and Arkansas could be considered Santorum states.  If Romney only wins 50% of the delegates in the other states, he will be 411 delegates away from the nomination.  In the states that Romney has won so far, he has claimed 439 out of 605 delegates or 72.5%.  In the states that Romney has lost, he has still won 133 out of 405 or 32.5%. If this trend holds, assuming Santorum gets all of the delegates in Pennsylvania, this will be the delegate count going into Texas...


Romney 871
Santorum 545
Gingrich 135
Paul 50


After Texas with Romney getting only 32.5% of the delegates...


Romeny 921
Santorum 650
Gingrich 135
Paul 50


And then there is California Tuesday, where not only California votes, but also New Jersey, Montana, New Mexico and South Dakota.  Assuming Romney only wins New Jersey and California... the count going into the final contest in Utah will be...


Romney 1099
Santorum 747
Gingrich 135
Paul 50


And finally, all of Utah's 40 delegates will go to Romney...


Romney 1139
Santorum 747
Gingrich 135
Paul 50


Romney would come up just 5 delegates short of having the nomination wrapped up before the convention.  But Romney would likely win at least 5 of the 46 unallocated delegates so far and will likely win the nomination on the first convention ballot.  That is not really a brokered convention at all, but a contentious one.  But a contentious convention, where Romney and Santorum are spending money trying to persuade delegates to flip flop after the first ballot will take the focus off of defeating Obama until after the August convention.  Surely, this plays out well for Obama not matter what the effects of high gas prices this summer.  To avoid this, Romney needs to do better than gain 72.5% of the delegate vote in the Romney states and better than 32.5% in the non-Romney states.  But in order for Santorum to get his wish of a brokered convention, where the delegates can vote for who the want to after the first ballot, he will have to do better than he is doing as well.


Romney has to win 75% of the delegates in the Romney states and better than 35% of the delegates in the non-Romney states.  Where Santorum only needs to continue to do what he is doing, assuming his goal is to stop Romney.


If Santorum really wants the GOP to defeat Obama, it might be better to bow out gracefully after the next round of Primaries on April 3.  History is not kind to the survivor of the most contentious nomination process when an incumbent is in office.  It is important that this nomination process settle quickly.


Romney needed to win at least 14 delegates from Louisiana to avoid this.