Now that Super Tuesday is Over...Why the Romeny Nomination is In the Bag.

Yesterday, this blog focused on why the GOP nomination is far from over.  Today, we argue the other side of the coin, why the nomination is in the bag.

Now that Super Tuesday is over, we know the pattern of how the GOP nomination is going.  You can tell how the rest of the GOP primaries will go based upon only three factors.  1.  The Urban/Rural mix of the state.  2.  How hard the state was hit by the last recession and 3.  The religious makeup of the state.

The more urban the state, the better for Romney.  He is doing well in urban areas, where Santorum is doing better in rural areas.  Best example of this is Ohio.  When I say urban, I mean that most of the state's population lives in the city.  Utah is urban, even though most of the state is "empty" because most of the people live in the Salt Lake City metro.

The harder the state was hit by the last recession, the better for Romney, as he is considered the stronger fiscal conservative.  The better the state has weathered the recession, the better for Santorum.  Best example is Colorado and Nevada.  Colorado has weathered the recession better than most states.  Nevada has not.  Nevada went to Romney, Colorado went to Santorum.  The harder hit by the recession, the more important the economy is to the voter.  The better the state has weathered the recession, the more likely social conservatism matters to the voter.  The Rockies and the Gulf Coast have weathered the recession better than most states.  The rest of the US was hard hit.

The third factor is the religious makeup of the state.  Santorum does better with evangelical protestants, such as Southern Baptists and conservative Lutherans.  Romney does better with Roman Catholics, traditional protestants such as Episcopalians and Mormons.  Religion is probably the most important factor.  Wyoming is the best example of this.  Even though Wyoming is rural and the state has weathered the recession, there is a strong Mormon contingent in the state and that explains why the state went to Romney.

Here is how the primaries have gone so far...

Iowa...rural population, hard hit by the recession, evanglical protestants...Minor Santorum win.
New Hampshire...Mostly suburban, hard hit by the recession, mostly episcopal...Romney win.
South Carolina...Mostly rural, weathered recession, mostly baptist...Gingrich win.
Florida...Mostly urban, hard hit by recession, religiously heterogeneous...Romney win
Maine...Rural, hard hit by the recession and protestant...Romney
Nevada...Urban, hard hit by the recession and Mormon...Romney
Colorado...Urban, weathered the recession and evangelical...Santorum
Minnesota...Urban, weathered the recession and lutheran...Santorum
Missouri...urban, weathered the recession and evangelical...Santorum
Arizona...urban, hard hit by the recession and Mormon...Romney
Michigan...urban, hard hit by the recession and heterogeneous...Romney
Washington...urban, hard hit by the recession and heterogeneous...Romney
Alaska...urban, hard hit by the recession and heterogeneous...Romney
Georgia...urban, weathered the recession and evangelical...Gingrich
Note: Gingrich home state
Idaho...rural, weathered the recession and Mormon...Romney
Massachusetts...urban, hard hit by the recession and Catholic...Romney
Note: Romney's ACTUAL home state
North Dakota...rural, weathered the recession and Lutheran...Santorum
Ohio...urban, hard hit by the recession and heterogeneous...Romney
Oklahoma...urban, weathered the recession and evangelical...Santorum
Tennessee...rural, weathered the recession and evangelical...Santorum
Vermont...rural, hard hit by the recession and heterogeneous...Romney
Virginia...Urban, hard hit by the recession and evangelical...Romney
Note: Gingrich and Santorum did not make the primary ballot in Virginia
Wyoming...rural, weathered the recession and Mormon...Romney

Therefore, here is how the rest of the primaries will go...

March 10.
Kansas...Mostly urban, hard hit by the recession and mostly traditional protestant...Romney.

March 13
Alabama...Mostly urban, weathered recession and evangelical...Santorum.
Note: best chance for Romney in the deep south.
Hawaii...Mostly urban, hard hit by the recession and strong Mormon population...Romney
Mississippi...Mostly rural, weathered the recession and evangelical...Santorum.

March 20
Illinois...Mostly urban, hard hit by the recession and traditional protestant...Romney

March 24
Louisiana...Mostly urban, hard hit by the recession and evangelical...Santorum

April 3
Maryland...urban, hard hit by the recession and traditional protestant...Romney
Wisconsin...rural, hard hit by the recession and mostly Lutheran...Santorum.

April 24
Connecticut...urban, hard hit by the recession and Catholic...Romney
Delaware...urban, hard hit by the recession and heterogeneous...Romney
Note: outside of Pennsylvania, best chance for Santorum in the northeast.
New York...urban, hard hit by the recession and heterogeneous...Romney
Pennsylvania...Santorum's home state, but demographically a Romney State...Romney could secure the nomination here if he can steal this state from Santorum...urban, hard hit by the recession and religiously heterogeneous.
Rhode Island...Urban, hard hit by the recession and Catholic...Romney

May 8
Indiana...urban, hard hit by the recession and the loss of Peyton Manning and Catholic...Romney
North Carolina...urban, weathered the recession and evangelical...Santorum
West Virginia...rural, hard hit by the recession and Baptist...Santorum

May 15
Nebraska...rural, weathered the recession and Lutheran...Santorum
Romney could steal Nebraska...as this state is becoming more urbanized.
Oregon...urban, hard hit by the recession and heterogeneous...Romney

May 22
Arkansas...rural, weathered the recession and evangelical...Santorum
Kentucky...rural, hard hit by the recession and evangelical...Santorum

May 29
Texas...urban, weathered the recession and evangelical...Santorum

June 5
California...urban, hard hit by the recession and heterogeneous...Romney
Montana...rural, weathered the recession and heterogeneous...Santorum
New Jersey...urban, hard hit by the recession and heterogenous...Romney
New Mexico...urban, weathered the recession and Catholic...Romney
South Dakota...rural, weathered the recession and lutheran...Santorum

June 26
Utah...urban, weathered the recession and Mormon...Romney

Here is the current delegate count...

Romney 415...50%
Santorum 176...21%
Gingrich 105...13%
Paul 47...6%
Huntsman 2...0%
Unpledged 86...10%
Total 831


There are 1541 delegates left in play.  1144 needed for nomination.  Mitt Romney needs 729.  Rick Santorum needs 968.  Romney needs 47% of the remaining delegates to win.  Santorum needs 63% of the remaining delegates.  If Santorum wins all of the delegates in the deep south, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Kentucky and Texas or 580 delegates, he still needs to come up with 388 delegates in the other states.  Of these states, only his home state of Pennsylvania is a winner-take-all primary.  In Tennessee, which is likely the template for the remaining south, Santorum won 43% of the delegates.  If he wins 50% of the delegates in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas, he gets 202 delegates to go with the 71 delegates he gets from Pennsylvania.  That is 273.  Meaning his campaign has to get 695 delegates from the other states.  That is 82% of the delegates outside of the very strong evangelical states.  The math does not work out to the favor of the Santorum campaign.


Realistically, the best that Santorum can hope for is to hold Mitt Romney under 1144 and have the convention decide the nomination.  If he truly wants to see Obama defeated, this is not the path to take.  Truly, Kansas and Illinois are must win states for Santorum if he wants to see Obama defeated.  If the current pattern continues, Romney will likely secure the nomination no later than the California primary.