Why the Etch-a-Sketch Analogy is Poor...But not The Most Costly Mistake

Most people have never piloted a ship at sea or an aircraft and do not have a frame of reference for what really happens in a campaign, even in a presidential campaign.

When driving a car, one simply points his vehicle in the direction he wants to go.  For example, to drive my car from Salt Lake City to Omaha, I simply get on I-80 eastbound and it about 12 hours, I arrive in Omaha.  Do I adjust for the weather conditions?  If I am smart, I adjust my speed due to the weather conditions, but I don't change direction.  I-80 eastbound is all I need to know.

But piloting an aircraft or a ship is a little different.  One has to account for the speed and direction of the wind and/or water.  Even a Ford Class Aircraft Carrier has to account for the speed and direction of the wind.  If a jumbo jet does not account for wind speed, direction and other weather conditions, the aircraft may run out of fuel and never reach the intended destination.  The safety of the passengers and crew depends on how well the pilot can adjust to changing weather conditions.

Running a campaign is more like piloting an aircraft than it is like driving a car.  Many things can happen in the course of a campaign and if the candidate is unwilling to adjust, he cannot expect to win.

When the GOP nomination is secured, the eventual candidate will need to change course.  The campaign will no longer be about attracting republican voters, it will be about three factors.  1.  Ensuring that those who support your cause will actually make the effort and vote on election day.  2.  Persuading the undecided voters to support you.  3.  Weakening the support of the opponent.

The eventual GOP nominee will have to moderate somewhat, even Rick Santorum will have to moderate.  If he does not, he can to expect win enough undecided voters to push him over the top.  Generally, the GOP candidate has more work to do in this area because there are more Democrats than Republicans in the US.  Nationally 29% of Americans are Republicans, 31% are Democrats and 38% are independent.  If everyone votes and the independents are evenly spit, the Democrat will win 51% to 49%.

In the election of 2008, Barrack Obama won because he had solid support from the Democrats, he had the majority of independent voters and the Republican Support for John McCain was weakened.  In 2000, George W. Bush won because he was able to get more of the independent vote than Al Gore, especially in some key states, like Florida.  In the election of 2004, Bush won because of strong GOP support.

The primary season of 2012 has shown that Mitt Romney can win over independent voters.  But Rick Santorum has shown that Romney will struggle with some factions of the Republican base.  Mitt is strong with women, in urban areas, with Catholics and Traditional Protestants and with people who are not impressed with the way that President Obama has handled the economy.  Mitt struggles with those in rural areas, who have a lower income, who consider themselves very conservative and those who consider themselves evangelical.

Because Governor Romney struggles with those who are part of the Republican base, he can not afford to moderate too greatly in the General Election, nor should he if he already has strong support in areas where traditional Rush Limbaugh-type Republicans will struggle.  He does not need an Etch-a-Sketch after the primary campaign and GOP convention are over.  He simply needs to adjust to the change in wind and weather.

Senator Santorum, on the other hand, will need change his campaign strategy if he wins the nomination, more so than Romney.  He struggles with voters in the Obama demographic more than Romney does.  He may continue so struggle after the primary season is over.  He will need a greater correction due to wind and weather conditions than Romney will.  He will have to prove, more than Romney does, that he can lead the country out of the recession better than Obama has.  He mocks the Etch-a-Sketch, but he is the one who needs it.

The reason why the Etch-a-Sketch is a bad analogy is because it is an oversimplification of what most people can not relate to.  When the wind and the weather change, a pilot does not press clear and recompute his course, even if a dramatic change is needed, a good pilot successfully.  But the campaign will need to change direction after the nomination is secure, there is no doubt about that.

The other problem with this analogy is that an Etch-a-Sketch is a toy.  It exacerbates the image that Romney will change what he says just to get votes.  The good news for Romney's campaign is that it is not Romney who said it...it was one of his aids.  There is no video tape anywhere of Romney himself using the Etch-a-Sketch analogy.  It was a poor choice for an analogy, and the campaign staffer should publicly apologize.

But this gaffe will pass.  Santorum will not get much use out of it after the memory of it fades.  And if there is another face to face debate, it may get thrown back in Santorum's face.  Romney could ask Santorum to elaborate on his plans to change his campaign once Romney is out of the way.  GOP voters need assurance that Santorum has a bigger purpose than to defeat Romney.  Therefore Santorum's statement that Obama is preferable to Romney is perhaps an even bigger gaffe and more costly mistake.  It brings into doubt the reasons why Santorum is even in the race.  Does he even care about winning the general election in November?  Could Obama use Santorum's own words against him?  And yes, there is video tape of Santorum saying it, not an aide.  Isn't it Santorum who needs more damage control than Romney?  We will find out on April 3.