Now that Super Tuesday is Over...Why the GOP Race is Not

Updated


The question, now that Super Tuesday 2012 is history, is it time for Santorum, Gingrich and Paul to throw in the towel and let Mitt Romney be the de facto GOP nominee.  My gut tells me no.


Going into Super Tuesday, here was the delegate count...


Romney 180...52%
Santorum 90...26%
Gingrich 29...8%
Paul 23...7%
Huntsman 2...0.5%
Unpledged 21...6%
Total...345


With Super Tuesday in the books, here is the current delegate count...


Romney 415...50%
Santorum 176...21%
Gingrich 105...13%
Paul 47...6%
Huntsman 2...0%
Unpledged 86...10%
Total 831


It is clear that Super Tuesday settled nothing other than to keep Gingrich and Paul in the race.  The other two guys were the clear winners.  True, Santorum won three states and Romney won six, but Romney did not increase his overall percentage of delegates, and neither did Santorum.  It is not any more a two-man race than it was on Monday.


However, if you discount the 46 delegates that Gingrich won in his home state, then perhaps Romney was the winner after all.  Outside of Gingrich's Georgia victory, Romney did increase his overall share.


Many political analyst are still saying that this race could go to the convention, undecided.  This would be very bad for the GOP.  I have pointed out in the past week that the GOP has never won the General Election when they have had a contested convention and an incumbent has been in the Oval Office.

Romney will be the nominee the way that things are going, he will likely wrap up the nomination with the California primary in June.  If the current pattern holds, Romney will win in the Northeast, the Mountain West--except for Colorado and New Mexico and the Pacific.  Romney has won a couple of close races in the industrial mid-west.  Romney already has New Hampshire, Florida, Maine, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Washington, Idaho, Massachusetts, Ohio, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming and Alaska.  That is 14 so far.  Expect these yet to be contested states go to Romney;  Hawaii and the Pacific Territories, Maryland, California, Oregon, Connecticut, Delaware, New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island, West Virginia, Montana and Utah.  That is another 12.  For a total of 26.  Plus, expect that Illinois and Indiana, if the pattern holds, will be tough fought Romney wins.  That is 28 states and a boat load of delegates, especially New York and California.  Expect Romney wins in Puerto Rico and DC as well.  That leaves Santorum with 20 states, including Texas and their mother lode of delegates, and Gingrich with 2.  Romney should have just enough delegates to win the nomination before the convention, with California putting him over the top.  If not California, then Utah, where Romney will be the clear winner.

If Gingrich drops out, the South Carolina delegates go to Romney and the Georgia delegates go to Santorum, the 2nd place winner in those respective states.  That is 27 states for Romney and 21 states for Santorum.  But the big prize is Texas, and if the regional pattern holds up, Texas goes to Santorum, and that does keep the nomination in doubt, slightly.  But it should still add up to a Romney victory.  The bad news for Santorum is that while Romney has won some landslide victories and taken all of the delegates in some states, Santorum's victories have been close, and he has had to split the delegates.  That is the main reason why Mitt Romney has a commanding delegate lead.

There are several problems for Romney and GOP nominee watchers.  Santorum is winning in the states that the traditional GOP candidate wins in the General election, except for those out west.  Romney is winning in states that are likely to go to Obama.  But that could also be spun for Romney and his claim that he, alone, can beat Obama.  He is winning over people that normally do not vote for the GOP candidate, or the people who were once called Reagan Democrats.  In the cities, the urban and suburban areas hardest hit by the last recession, Romney is the clear winner, even in Tennessee.  In the areas where voters are more likely to be voting based upon traditional GOP values, Santorum is the big winner.

The  next problem for Romney is that the 3 of the next 4 of primary states; Hawaii, Kansas, Mississippi and Alabama are in Santorum territory, where the only state, out of the next four in Romney territory is Hawaii.  Santorum could have a ton of momentum going into the Illinois primary on March 20 and that could end up as a Santorum upset win.  Clearly, all have work to do.  If Gingrich wins either Mississippi or Alabama, then he could rise up and steal the nomination.

This is what has to happen for the nomination to be over:  Romney needs to win either Kansas, Mississippi or Alabama and hold onto Hawaii and Illinois.  If it does that, he can say that he won in Santorum territory, and put in doubt an eventual Santorum win in Texas.  It would also help Romney for influential GOP leaders to continue to call for the party to unite behind Romney.

What Santorum has to do is win Kansas, Mississippi, Alabama and Illinois and then possibly have enough momentum to win one of the states in the Northeast on April 24.  It would help if he could win in Hawaii as well.

The timing of the next few primaries is what is bad news for Romney and good news for Santorum.  But if Romney can win a few key endorsements from key figures in Kansas, Mississippi and Alabama and steal one or two of those primaries, this nomination race will, at last, be over.

Latest Polls...

Kansas...no published polls since November
Mississippi...no published polls since November, but Santorum "is expected to do very well"
Alabama...no published polls, but Alabama has "a high level of evangelical christians"
Texas...Santorum with 28 point lead.
New York...Romney with a 16 point lead
Pennsylvania...Santorum with a 30 point lead
California...Romney with a 16 point lead.