How do Presidential Wannabees Stack Up Against History?

There are 24 prospective candidates for the 2012 Republican Nomination.  Some have history on their side and others do not.  Here is how those prospective nominees stack up against History.

State Governors

Former state governors that have completed at least 1 term as governor, when running against an incumbent, have never lost.  However, the last time that the incumbent president was defeated by someone other than a state governor was in 1888.  Governors that have failed to unseat the incumbent had not completed their first term in office by the time they became their party's nominee for the first time: Adlai Stevenson, Thomas Dewey and Alf Landon.  Even though Stevenson and Dewey ran again 4 years later, and halfway through their second terms, they were inexperienced the first time they ran.  Therefore, history is very much on the side of the following Presidential Hopefuls:

Mike Huckabee (Former Arkansas Governor, served for over 10 years.  The final 18 months of Jim Guy Tucker's last term and for 2 full terms in his own right.)
Tim Pawlenty (Former Minnesota Governor)
Mitch Daniels (Current Indiana Governor, currently in 2nd term)Jon Huntsman, Jr (Current ambassador to China, will leave office in May.  Was halfway through 2nd term as Utah's governor when he accepted his ambassadorship.  Could become Secretary of State to a  GOP President if his White House bid fails.)
Gary E Johnson (Former New Mexico Governor, served for 2 terms.)
Mitt Romney (Former Massachusetts Governor, served for 1 term) Buddy Roemer (Former Louisiana Governor, served for 1 term)


This match-up has happened five times in recent history.  In 1992 Governor Bill Clinton unseated President George HW Bush.  In 1980 Governor Ronald Reagan defeated President Jimmy Carter.  In 1976 Governor Jimmy Carter defeated President Gerald Ford.  In 1932 Governor Franklin Roosevelt defeated President Herbert Hoover.  In 1912 Governor Woodrow Wilson defeated both President William Howard Taft and former President Theodore Roosevelt running on a 3rd party ticket.

In 1956 President David Eisenhower defeated Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson for the second time.  Stevenson was first nominated by the Democrats in 1952, just two years into office and lost to Eisenhower.  In 1948 President Harry Truman defeated Governor Thomas E Dewey.  Dewey received his first Democratic nod in 1944 only two years into his first term as New York's Governor and lost to President Franklin Roosevelt.  In 1936, the Republicans nominated Kansas Governor Alf Landon, who was just at the end of his first term in office.

In 1932, Franklin Roosevelt had only been elected as Governor of New York once, but had completed four years in office.  He took over for Al Smith when he resigned as Governor of New York to take on Hoover.  Smith also chose Roosevelt as his running mate...something that would likely not happen today.

An exception to the governor's rule is when the seat is open.  Governors have been successful in gaining an open seat, but not always.  In 1920, Senator Warren Harding defeated Governor James M Cox.  In 1988 Vice President George HW Bush defeated Governor Michael Dukakis.  In 1928 Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover defeated Governor Al Smith.  In 2000 Governor George W. Bush defeated Vice President and former Senator Al Gore.  In 1896 Governor William McKinely defeated Congressman William Jennings Bryan.  In 1884 Governor Grover Cleveland defeated Senator James G. Blaine.  In1876, the contest for the open seat was between two governors; Rutherford B Hayes from Ohio and James G Tilden from New York.  Someone had to lose that one, and it was Tilden.  In 1868 General Ulysses S Grant defeated Governor Horatio Seymour.  In all of these elections, the incumbent president either retired or was denied the nomination by his party.  When the seat is open, anything goes, the governor has won half the time.  When an experienced governor runs against an incumbent president, choose the governor.  If you include James K Polk, a state governor running for president has an overall success rate is 50%.  If the governor has successfully completed one term, the success rate is 67%.

History is not on the side of Sarah Palin, because she did not complete her first term as Governor of Alaska.  If she really wants to be the President now, she should try and get the Senate seat that Ted Stevens lost for the Republicans in 2008, which becomes up for election again in 2014 and serve the full six years.  She will still be young enough in 2020 (she will be 56) to be considered a serious candidate for the White House.  She will also then have the national political experience that she is obviously lacking now.  Scott Walker of Wisconsin, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Chris Christie of New Jersey who are all getting positive TEA Party vibes also does not have history on their side.  All are in their first term.

Religion. 

The first adherent to a religion to run for president has rarely been successful.  There are two members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints (Mormon) on the list of Governors: Jon Huntsman, Jr. and Mitt Romney.  That person is usually successful the second time they receive their party's nomination, as with Jefferson and Nixon, or if they were the second member of that faith to run.  Similar to the pattern with Kennedy (Al Smith was the first Roman Catholic to get the nod).  In recent history, both parties have had LDS men seek the nomination, but none have yet to be successful.  Romney's father, George Romney failed to get the Republican nod in 1968 and Morris Udall failed to get the Democratic nod in 1976.  Romeny, in 1968 had been the Governor of Michigan.  But lost the nomination to Nixon who was a former Vice President and the eventual winner.  Udall was a Senator from Colorado who lost the nomination to Jimmy Carter, the eventual winner.  Udall was a decedent of Mormon pioneer Jefferson Hunt, the founder of San Bernardino, California.  He was a cousin of current Utah Senator Mike Lee.  Mormon founder Joseph Smith was also running for the Democratic nomination in 1844 before he was murdered.  I am still looking so see if I can find a Roman Catholic who ran for President but did not get the party nod before Al Smith.  I am positive that there was never a Quaker who ran before Richard Nixon.  And I know that no Deist ran for president at all before Thomas Jefferson because Washington was unopposed in his elections.  Maybe Romney's father and Mo Udall already broke the ice for Mormon candidacy.

US Senate

A US Senator has not defeated an incumbent President since 1888.  It is not unheard of, but very rare and has not happened recently.  The best chance a Senator has at becoming President is when there is an open seat, as the current President's election demonstrates.  John F. Kennedy and Warren Harding also won an open seat from the Senate.  These men stand a chance if Obama's policies become unpopular, but recent history is not on their side.

Scott Brown
John Cornyn
Jim DeMint
Judd Gregg
Rick Santorum

The last time a US Senator tried to unseat the incumbent was 2004 when Senator John Kerry lost to President George W. Bush.  In 1996 Senator Bob Dole lost to President Bill Clinton.  In 1972 Senator George McGovern lost to President Richard Nixon.  In 1964 Senator Barry Goldwater lost to President Lyndon Johnson.  Before that you have to go all the way back to 1888 to find where a US Senator has challenged the incumbent president and won.  Perhaps a senator is due to win in 2012. 

Black Swan Candidates

US House of Representatives

It has been a long time since a member of the US House of Representatives has been elected to the White House without first becoming the Vice President, the governor of his stare or a Senator as was the case with George HW Bush, Richard Nixon, John F. Kennedy and others.  Sometime it is done in reverse order, such as with James K Polk who served as the Governor of Tennessee before being elected to Congress.  These people, if they are serious about the White House should consider another stop before running for President.  History is on the side of a member of the House if the current President fails to gain their party's nomination as was the case with Abraham Lincoln.

Michelle Bachmann
Newt Gingritch
Ron Paul
Mike Pence
Paul Ryan

It has been a while since a sitting member of the House was even nominated.  In 1924 Congressman John W. Davis lost to President Calvin Coolidge.  Congressman William J. Bryan lost in three tries for the White House.  The first two times to McKinley and the third time to Taft.  By the way, both men who won the Presidency directly from the US House that did not first serve in another high office have been assassinated.  Those men are Lincoln and Garfield.  These people should try for the White House the next time the seat is open or should try for a Governorship before attempting a run at the White House. 

Businessmen

Whether gaining their party's nomination or running as an independent, a very rich and businessman has never won the White House unless first elected to another office.  Examples include H Ross Perot and Wendell Wilkie.  Perot was an independent, and Wilkie won the GOP nomination.  Donald Trump may have a lot of money, but he does not have history on his side.

Supreme Court

Only once in history has a US Supreme Court Justice attempted to run for President.  Charles Hughes Evans attempted to unseat Woodrow Wilson in 1916 and lost.  In 1904 Theodore Roosevelt defeated Alton B Parker who was the Chief Judge of the New York Court of Appeals.  It was likely opposition from Tammany Hall (a very powerful political conglomerate in New York) that cost Congressman William Randolf Hearst the nomination rather than marital infidelity.  That probably was not the case until at least a decade later. Nevertheless, no judge or justice has ever won the White house whether running for an open seat of challenging an incumbent.

Cabinet Secretaries

1928 was the last time a cabinet secretary received the nomination from their party.  That man was Herbert Hoover.  But it has not been for lack of effort.  Former Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy was gunned down after winning the California Primary in 1968.  Secretary of State Al Haig's presidential campaign never got off the ground in 1988. In days of yore, when the President nominated a Secretary of State, he was signaling his intended successor.  That is how James Madison, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams and Martin van Buren made their name.  Since the Civil War Secretary of War William Howard Taft and Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover became the President.  But none of these men ever unseated an incumbent.  And a cabinet secretary has never unseated an incumbent to become the President.  Condoleeza Rice may one day become the President, but she is unlikely to be the one to unseat Obama if history is your reference.  But if Hillary Clinton gives up being Secretary of State and succeeds in taking the Democratic nod away from Obama, she does have history on her side and she has history on her side should she get the Democratic nod in 2016.

Untested by History

The following have held offices that have never received the nomination of their party for president.

Former US Ambassador to the UN--John Bolton.  Adlai Stevenson served in this office after he ran unsuccessfully twice for the Presidency and completed his time as Governor of Illinois.  Jean Kirkpatrick recieved some convention votes in 1984 for Vice President after the Democrats nominated Geraldine Ferraro, the first female on the ticket.  Otherwise, this has never even been close to a reality

Former Mayor of New York City--Rudy Guiliani.  Many of our Presidents have been former Mayors but have held another office first.  An example of such is William McKinely who was Mayor of Buffalo and then Governor of New York before becoming the President.  However, the demands of running a city as large and as unique as New York probably provides as much experience as being a state governor and the electorate may agree.  Guiliani could be the one to unseat Obama.

Sheriff Joe Arpaio of Maricopa County Arizona--We have had former presidents who were at one time in Law Enforcement; Bill Clinton was the Attorney General of Arkansas.  Theodore Roosevelt was once the Police Commissioner of New York City.  But all former cops and prosecutors have held another office before becoming the President.

Others with History on their side who are, so far, not running in 2012:
Tommy Thompson and Mike Leavitt have both served as the governor of their state and as a cabinet secretary.  Mike Johanns, who is now in the Senate has also been the Governor of Nebraska and the Secretary of Agriculture.  I would not put it past Johanns to be the nominee in 2016 if Obama wins another term or to become President in 2020 if the GOP captures the White House in 2012.  He has the most complete resume of any Republican.