Texas, one of the redder states in the US picked up 4 house seats. Florida, a swing state that leans Republican picked up 2. While Arizona, South Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Utah and Washington picked up one seat each. The only Blue state to pick up a seat was Washington.
New York, a blue state, and Ohio a swing state both lost 2 seats. While Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania lost one seat each. Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan and New Jersey are blue states; Iowa, Missouri and Pennsylvania are swing states and Louisiana is a red state.
But it gets even better for the Republicans when it comes to redistricting. Most of the states where redistricting is needed have legislative bodies controlled by Republicans. This means that in states that are swing states, the Republicans can draw boundaries that are favorable to their electoral chances.
Republican Controlled Redistricting States (+6)
Texas (+4)
Florida (+2)
Arizona (+1)
South Carolina (+1)
Georgia (+1)
Nevada (+1)
Utah (+1)
Ohio (-2)
Louisiana (-1)
Missouri (-1)
Pennsylvania (-1)
Democrat Controlled Redistricting States (-6)
Washington (+1)
Illinois (-1)
Iowa (-1)
Massachusetts (-1)
Michigan (-1)
New York (-2)
New Jersey (-1)
This means that the likely redistricting will result in a 6 seat gain for the GOP in the US House in 2012. This means that if Obama wins reelection, he will have to hope that his party picks up 6 more seats in the house in addition to the 49 seat majority that the Republicans now hold. That means that the Democrats will have to win 55 seats in Congress in 2012 with the benefit of only one new seat.
Things get a little tougher for Obama as well in 2012. Obama won 365 electoral votes in 2008. That number has now been reduced by 6, just through redistricting. Texas, Arizona, South Carolina, Georgia and Utah all went to McCain in 2008. If Obama carries the same states in 2012 that he did in 2008, he will win 359 electoral votes. Still a majority, but the margin is slimmer.
McCain States (+6):
Texas (+4)
Arizona (+1)
South Carolina (+1)
Georgia (+1)
Utah (+1)
Louisiana (-1)
Missouri (-1)
Obama States (-6):
Florida (+2)
Nevada (+1)
Washington (+1)
Ohio (-2)
New York (-2)
Pennsylvania (-1)
Illinois (-1)
Iowa (-1)
Massachusetts (-1)
Michigan (-1)
New Jersey (-1)
Can the republican candidate, whomever that person is, win another 95 votes? Florida would represent 29 of those 95 votes. Other big states that the GOP has won before: Ohio 18 and Pennsylvania 20. That is 67 votes from just those three states. Plus count in states that McCain should have won in 2008, as these states are traditionally GOP states: North Carolina 15, Virgina 13, Colorado 9 and Nevada 6. That could move 111 electoral votes to the GOP and would give the Republican Candidate the victory. There was only one state, however, where McCain won by less than a percentage point, and that was Missouri. These eight states are where the election will center in 2012.
The clear winner in the 2010 census was the republican candidate for president, whoever that person will be. That person will have an easier path to the White House and easier path with the GOP agenda in Congress. Not tons of help, but enough.
By the way, unlike other portions of the Federal Government, it is not the job of the US Census to pick winners and losers. It is just the way it works out.
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