Will Obama get re-elected? April 4 update

My last two blogs were an attempt to show how history favors the incumbent president when running for a second term.  There are more the two dozen Republicans lining up to unseat him, and his approval numbers have been less than stellar as of late.  Based upon history, Obama will win another term in the White House if the following conditions work to his favor.

1.  He must avoid a serious primary challenge.  A serious challenge may not be in the number of votes won by the opponent, but how the opponent campaigns.  In 1992, Pat Buchanan won 38% of the vote in New Hampshire and almost nothing else.  Very minor indeed; but it exposed where George HW Bush was weak.  H Ross Perot used this knowledge to wrangle 19% of the popular vote from Bush and sent Bill Clinton to the White House.

2.  He must unite his party.  A dis-unified Democratic party may stay home on election day, vote for the Republican opponent or vote for a radical third party candidate.  With the Republicans in control of the House of Representatives, Obama will have to moderate his tone.  This change of tone worked well for Bill Clinton in 1996.  If not done right, it could weaken Obama.

3.  He must not let the campaign get too personal.  Sure, there is going to be some mudslinging, but focus on the opponent and the platform of the opponent.  It is not presidential to let a negative campaign get personal.  This will be especially difficult with Governor Palin in the picture, but this temptation must be resisted even if she does not win the nomination.

4.  The economy needs to improve and Americans need to return to work.  If this happens, if unemployment drops below 8%, Obama will look like the hero.

5.  If health care reform and other policies continue to be unpopular, hope that these laws are struck down in the courts.  If so, both sides can claim victory and Obama can get credit for trying.

6.  Try to keep a strong left-leaning third-party challenger out of the race.  This may be the most difficult thing to do as this could require policy changes that would never be passed in the Republican Controlled House.  The name that the Obama administration should fear the most is Michael Bloomberg.  He could become the next H Ross Perot.

Strategy for the Republicans.

1.  It is critical that the GOP nominate the right person to run in 2012.  The GOP can not just nominate anyone, no matter how weak Obama may appear to be politically.  Many of the more than two dozen lack the credentials and the historical precedence to win.  Some of the names near the top of the list would not win except a (forgive the term, please, no harm intended) black swan arrives in the Obama Camp.  This list includes people like Sarah Palin, Newt Gengrich, Chris Chirstie, Ron Paul and Jon Bolton.  It's not like anyone of these people would not make a good President.  History shows that only a person with the right resume can win.  That is a governor with at least 4 years in office.

2.  Sure, the GOP can run on the poor economy if the election is held today, but have a strategy to use in case the economy improves.  Besides, there is still some GOP culpability in today's economy.  The problems began in 2006 with the GOP was in control of Congress and had the White House.

3.  The party must be united.  Immigration and Gay Rights are wedge issues for the GOP and it may be better to avoid going on the offensive on issues where the party is divided.  The TEA Party must learn to fall in line behind GOP leadership, failing to do so will lead to another 4 years of Obama.  We must learn to forget terms like RINO (Republican In Name Only).  In fighting is not what the GOP needs today.

4.  Continue to push Obama on unpopular issues and put the administration on the defensive.

5.  Campaigns go negative, but stay away from personal attacks.  Palin, Gengrich, Ron Paul and others who may be left out of the nomination should be invited to join the attack and unite behind the eventual nominee.  Put forth a united front, but the family of the President is off-limits.

How it is going now?

Obama
1.  So far, there is no serious in-party challenge.
2.  The Dems seem united right now, of course Boehner and the GOP deserve more credit for this than Obama does.
3.  As of right now, they are staying away from attacks on Governor Palin as she does not seem to be the leader.
4.  The U-3 rate has dipped below 9%, but still has a way to go.  The U-6 rate is still above 17%.  The U-6 rate includes those who have given up on looking for work and those who have taken part-time work while continuing to work.  The U-6 rate was about 9% before the current economic crisis began.  Both the U-3 rate and the U-6 rate are higher than they were when Obama took office.
5.  Health care reform is still not very popular, and now there are the actions in Libya that make Obama look not so good foreign-policy wise.  At least Bush had the approval of Congress before going into Iraq.
6.  Bloomberg looks like he is getting into the race.  That will be bad for Obama.

GOP

1.  In March, Michelle Bachmann out raised Mitt Romney in campaign cash.  If she become the GOP candidate, she will lose.  It is not because she would not make a good President, it is because a member of the House of Representatives has never defeated a sitting President.  If she were running for an open seat, we would be very high on her candidacy and giddy with the prospect that the Republicans would beat the Democrats to holy grail of nominating a woman for President.  Who is the right person, please follow this link.
2.  The economy is improving, but the recovery is at a tortoise's pace.  Unemployment is not on track to be below 8% by this time next year, but it could be.  There needs to be an alternative strategy.
3.  The GOP is not united, it will be up to the eventual nominee to unite the party.
4.  Good job at pushing Obama on the budget, but allowing the government to shut down could backfire.  There needs to be an end-strategy that will allow the government to keep functioning, but will allow the GOP to claim victory.
5.  To early to tell if the campaign will go negative.