What it takes to unseat a sitting US president.

It is a rare thing that a US President is defeated in his quest for a second term. The election of 2012 will be the 11th Presidential election in my lifetime. In those years, I have witnessed the defeat of the incumbent three times. The first time was when Gerald Ford lost to Jimmy Carter. The second was 4 years later when Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter. The third time was in 1992 when Bill Clinton defeated the elder George Bush. Is there a historical pattern to limiting a President to only one term? There have been 17 1 term presidents (who lived until the next election) in our history. Let's examine this issue.

Of the 17 1 term presidents 4 decided not to run for a second term due to health factors or other reasons.  Four were denied a second term because they did not secure the nomination of their party.  This has not happened since 1868.  Only 9 times in our history, the incumbent president was defeated in the General election.  Eight Presidents have died in office, 5 in their first term.  Those 5 are not included on this list.  Twenty-two presidents have earned a second term.  Factors that have contributed to the defeat of the sitting include the inability to unify his party, economic troubles, the lack of popularity for his policies, the level of personal attacks on the family of the opposition or the strength of third party contenders.

List of one-term US Presidents (Excluding those who died in office).

1.  John Adams was defeated in 1796 by sitting Vice President Thomas Jefferson who left the Federalist Party and created the Democratic Republican Party, the forerunner to the modern Democratic Party.  The Federalists were weakened by the death of George Washington and many in the party supported Adams rival for the Federalist Party nomination, Thomas Pickney.  (Factors: A.  Successor: a)
2.  John Quincy Adams lost in the election of 1828 to Andrew Jackson who resigned from the Senate four years earlier to spend the entire four years campaigning against Adams.  At times, the attacks got too personal.  One pro-Adams supporter accused the wife of Andrew Jackson of bigamy.  She died shortly after he husband took office.  Ironically, it was Jackson who set up the current convention nominating system which has prevented someone from spending the entire four years campaigning against the incumbent.  (Factors: B, D.  Successor: b)
3.  Martin Van Buren lost in his bid for a second term in 1840 because economic hardships due to the Panic of 1839 which made him an easy target for the supporters of Whig Candidate William Henry Harrison a former senator from Ohio.  (Factors: C Successor: b)
4.  John Tyler was expelled from the Whig party before the election of 1844 because of his support of Democratic policies.  Initially he tried to run as a third party candidate, but by August withdrew and threw his support behind the Democratic Candidate James K. Polk, the eventual winner.  (Factors: A Successor: c)**
5.  James K. Polk retired after only one term in office and did not seek reelection due to failing health.  His post-presidential retirement was the shortest history, lasting only 103 days.  (Factors: f  Successor: d)*
6.  Millard Fillmore was passed over by his party for the president nomination in the election of 1852 in favor of General Winnefred Scott.  Ironically, he was the last Whig to serve as president.  He joined the Know-Nothing party afterwards and carried the state of Maryland in the 1856 election.  (Factors: A Successor: b)**
7.  Franklin Pierce was defeated by his party in the election of 1856 because the disastrous Kansas-Nebraska act was signed into law and divided the party.  The issue of slavery also disintegrated the Whig party and the modern Republican party rose from the ashes nominating General John C. Fremont.  But James Buchanan won the election.  (Factors: A, B Successor: e)**
8.  James Buchanan lost his party's nomination in 1860 due to the split in the Democratic party.  This was a precursor to the Civil War.  The Northern Faction favored Senator Stephen A. Douglas and the Southern Faction preferred Vice President John C. Breckenridge.  This led to the election of Republican Abraham Lincoln.  (Factors: A and B.  Successor: f)**
9.  Andrew Johnson was impeached by Congress and was therefore unable to gain the support of his party for a presidential run in 1868.  (Factors: B. Successor: d)**
10. Rutherford B. Hayes chose to retire instead of running for a second term.  One of his campaign promises was to serve for only one term.  (Factors: G Successor: f)*
11. Chester A. Aurthur retired due to health issues and decided not to seek a second term as president after taking the office due to Garfield's assassination.  He died shortly after leaving office.   (Factors: F. Successor: c)*
12. Grover Cleveland was opposed to protectionist tariffs during his presidency and that cost him the election of 1888 to former Indiana Senator Benjamin Harrison.  This is the last time someone from the US Senate would defeat a sitting US President in the General Election.  Cleveland would be back and win a second non succesive term in 1892.  (Factors: D Successor: b)
13. Benjamin Harrison's economic policies became unpopular, even though they propelled him to office four years earlier, and there was a strong party challenge in 1892 to unseat him.  But Harrison won the nomination on the first convention ballot.  There was also a strong third party candidate, James Weaver of the Populist party who won 22 electoral votes.  This was not the difference maker as Cleveland won in a landslide, but underscored the unpopularity of the incumbent.  Harrison is the only incumbent president to lose to a former president. (Factors: A, C, D. Successor: g/c)
14. William Howard Taft was able to fend off an in-party challenge by his predecessor, Theodore Roosevelt, with support from delegates in the south; who at that time were solidly Democratic states.  Roosevelt then bolted from the GOP party and formed a third party, the Bull Moose (progressive) party because he did not believe that states that would not vote Republican should have such a say in the choice of the nominee.  Roosevelt finished the election in 2nd place behind New Jersey Governor Woodrow Wilson while Taft only carried 2 states. (Factors: A, E.  Successor: c)
15.  Herbert Hoover and the Republicans had to take the blame for the Great Depression.  In 1932, Hoover easily won the nomination of the crippled party, but lost big time in the General Election.  (Factors: C. Successor: c)
16.  Lyndon Johnson faced a backlash with many of his policies, namely the war in Vietnam, unpopular Great Society Programs and failure to control civil unrest.  The press call this a credibility gap, in that Johnson could not deliver as he had promised.  As a result, he decided not to seek another term.  The public would soon learn to accept many of Johnson's initiatives, especially in the Social arena.  Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton campaigned to keep many of the same Great Society Programs that were unpopular when Johnson initiated them.  (Factors: A, C, D, H Successor: a)  (Johnson served out the remainder of Kennedy's term--14 months--and then was elected once in his own right.)
17.  Gerald Ford was never elected as Vice President, but was appointed after the resignation of Vice President Spiro Agnew, the first such appointment, and so far the only such appointment allowed by the 22nd Amendment.  He was also unpopular for granting a pardon to his former boss, President Richard Nixon, for his role in the Watergate scandal that forced him to resign.  He was able to fight of a strong challenge for the Republican party nomination from former California Governor Ronald Reagan, but not able to win the General Election against Jimmy Carter.  (Factors: A, D.  Successor: c)
18.  Jimmy Carter had many foreign policy successes during his presidency, but in 1980, Ronald Reagan jumped all over him for one if his bigger foreign policy blunders in Iran.  Carter also had to fight off a strong in-party challenge from Edward Kennedy and had to deal with the second half of a double-dip recession.  The former California Governor won easily. (Factors: A, C.  Successor: c)
19.  George HW Bush was a popular president at the end of the first gulf war and late in 1991 appeared to be headed for an easy reelection victory as the only real challenger was an unknown governor from Arkansas.  But the cut in military spending at the end of the Cold War and Gulf War resulted in a minor recession and a strong 3rd party challenge from businessman H. Ross Perot cost Bush the vote from fiscally-conservative Republicans and "Reagan Democrats."  A primary challenge was relatively minor, but exposed a political weakness that Perot exploited.  Perot won nearly 19% of the popular vote.  Clinton, the the dark-horse from Arkansas won easily.  (Factors: A, C, E.  Successor: c)

* Denotes where the 1-term President decided not to seek another term in office.  (4 Times--Polk, Hayes, Arthur, Johnson)
**Denotes where the 1-term President sought (for a time), but did not win the nomination of his party.  (4 Times)

President's who have died in office...
1.  William Henry Harrison (Natural Causes)
2.  Zachary Taylor (Natural Causes)
3.  Abraham Lincoln (Assassination)
4.  James A Garfield (Assassination)
5.  William McKinley (Assassination) (Died in 2nd term in office)
6.  Warren G. Harding (Natural Causes)
7.  Franklin D. Roosevelt (Natural Causes) (Died during 4th term in office)
8.  John F. Kennedy (Assassination)

Questions that President Obama needs to answer in his favor by 2012.

1.  Will Obama face an Primary challenger in 2012?  Sure, there will be others that emerge, but will any of them make the Obama campaign sweat.  This is not always the kiss of death for a presidential campaign.  For Example, Lyndon Johnson won the general election easily in 1964 even though as the incumbent president, he faced a serious in-party challenge.  Harry Truman also won in spite of a strong convention challenge.  A primary challenger will simply get the President out of the Rose Garden.

2.  Will the current economic crisis be resolved by 2012?  This could be the deciding factor.  Sure, the recession is over when measuring GDP.  But unemployment remains high and foreclosures are still happening at a record pace.  This will have to be worked out by Labor Day, 2012.  If unemployment is still above 9% by then, it will not be good for Obama in November.  An ongoing economic crisis didn't hurt Franklin Roosevelt's chances in 1936, however.

3.  Will the electorate learn to appreciate Obama's policies? Some of Obama's policies, like health care reform, remain unpopular with the electorate.  In fact, they gave boost to the GOP success in the mid-term election in 2010.  If this continues to be the case, it could spell trouble for Obama in 2012.  Some past presidents have been reelected even though some of their policies were unpopular.  Most of Roosevelt's new deal was dead by 1936.  But this has been harmful to many other presidential aspirations.

4.  Will there be a left-leaning 3rd party candidate?  Chris Matthews, a left leaning pundit on MSNBC is hoping that a strong 3rd-party candidate will erode the conservative base and help Obama win in 2012.  But history shows that this is not always favorable to the President.  It all depends on who the third party challenger is.  For example, Strom Thurmond was probably part of the reason people were picking Thomas Dewey in 1948.  Ross Perot did not help George HW Bush much in 1992, but Perot did help Clinton win in 1996 with less than 50% of the popular vote.  Calvin Coolidge was not hurt at the polls by a 3rd party candidate, either.  Perot took votes away from Republicans.  It is Matthews hope that the TEA Party splits from the GOP, because that will help Obama.  But a 3rd party with more liberal leanings, like New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, could hurt the incumbent.

5.  Who will win the Republican nomination in 2012?  Will be be Huckabee, Romney, Palin or someone else.  It has been a long time since an incumbent has been defeated by someone other than a current or former state governor.  The bad news is that many contenders for the GOP have served as state governors.

Other minor factor

What if Palin is the nominee in 2012?  Her family name has been dragged in the mud by many left-leaning people in the press.  History shows that this is not a good thing for the sitting president.  In 1828, it was perhaps the deciding factor.  Even if Palin does not run in 2012, if her family continues to be attacked in the press, it will not be good for the President.

What could doom Obama's campaign in 2012?

1.  A strong primary challenge or inability to unify the party after the convention.
2.  A economy that continues to struggle, especially if employment remains high.
3.  Continued strong distrust of his domestic and foreign policy.
4.  Michael Bloomberg or another liberal-leaning 3rd party candidate.
5.  A strong nominee from the GOP.  Most likely any one of the 8 former or current state governors being mentioned who have served at least 1 term and have been reelected at least once (Huckabee, Pawlenty, Jindal, Perry, J Bush or Huntsman, for example) could be that candidate.
6.  Sarah Palin may not be the nominee in 2012, but continued attacks on her family will not help Obama.  If Sarah Palin is not the nominee, it would be best for the Obama campaign and the press that supports his candidacy to ignore the former Alaska governor and her family.

One of these factors is probably dismissible, but 2 or 3 will be a big problem.

Notes:
Factors the contribute to the defeat of the a incumbent President

A. Party disunity
B. Personal Attacks on the family of the opposing candidate
C. Economic Hardships
D. Unpopular policies
E. Strong third-party opposition

Factors that cause a sitting president not to seek re-election

F. Health
G. Political Promise
H. Other factor:, lack of party support, civil unrest, etc.

Highest office of the person defeating the sitting President in the general election

a. Vice President
b. US Senate
c. State Governor
g. Former President

Other office of the person succeeding a sitting president, on this list. The men who fit these categories took advantage of the factors that caused the incumbent president not to be nominated by his party or to withdraw hid candidacy.

d. US Army General
e. Cabinet Official
f. US House of Representatives