The US Senate in 2012

The Republicans were not able to gain control of the Senate in 2010.  It was simply a matter of numbers.  In 2010, we elected Class 3 of the US Senate and after the 2008 election, Class 3 was the only class in the Senate with a Republican Majority.  There were not enough Democratic seats availble to be won in 2010.  There were enough to make it close, but not enough to win.  That will not be the case in 2012.

In 2012, Class 1 of the US Senate is up for election.  This is the strongest class in the Senate for the Democrats.  There are 21 Democrats, 10 Republicans and 2 Independents--who usually side with the Democrats in many critical issues.

2012 could be the year that the GOP wave reaches the Senate.  Many of the Democrats in the Senate are from "swing" states and could be volnerable.  While many of the Republicans in Class one come from "safe" Republican States.  Here is the list:

"Safe" Democrat States-13 (Current Senator)
California (Diane Fienstein - D)
Connecticut (Joe Liberman - I )*
Delaware (Don Carper - D)
Hawaii (Daniel Akaka - D)
Maine (Olympia Snowe -R)
Maryland (Ben Cardin - D)
Massachusetts (Scott Brown - R)
Michigan (Debbie Stabenow -D)
Minnesota (Amy Klobuchar - D)
New Jersey (Bob Menendez - D)
New York (Kristen Gillibrand -D)
Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse -D)
Vermont (Bernie Sanders - I)
Washington (Maria Cantwell - D)
West Virginia (Joe Manchin - D)
Wisconsin (Herb Kohl - D)

"Safe" Republican States-8 (Senator)
Arizona (Jon Kyle - R)
Mississippi (Roger Wicker - R)
Nevada (John Ensign - R)
North Dakota (Kent Conrad - D)
Tennessee (Bob Corker - R)
Texas (Kay Bailey Hutcheson - R)
Utah (Orrin Hatch - R)
Wyoming (John Barrasso - R)

Out of the "safe" states, the Democrats stand to be up by 1.  Joe Liberman will likely be replaced by a Democrat and Scott Brown will be volnerable.  For the GOP, the TEA Party will likely find a replacement for Kent Conrad.

The kicker is the swing states.  There is HUGE Republican potential and there will be some NASTY fights that on some days could take headlines away from the presidential election.

"Swing" states -9 (8 Democrat and 1 Republican)
Florida (Bill Nelson - D)
Indiana (Richard Lugar - R)
Missouri (Claire McCaskill - D)
Montana (Jon Tester - D)
Nebraska (Ben Nelson - D)
New Mexico (Jeff Bingaman - D)
Ohio (Sherrod Brown - D)
Pennsylvania (Bob Casey, Jr. - D)
Virginia (Jim Webb - D)

Out of this group, there will be an interesting battle.  Ben Nelson will likely become the biggest TEA Party target should he choose to run again.  If not, Nebraska's biggest tradition is to send their Governors to the Senate.  Both current US Senators from Nebraska are former Governors, that makes Dave Heineman the leading candidate to replace Nelson.  Any of the three Congressmen from Nebraska could also challenge Nelson.  There is also the thought that Nelson is not Democratic enough and could face a tough in-party challenge.

In Indiana, the retirement watch is out for Richard Lugar.  If he retires, he could be replaced by a Democrat, however he may face a TEA Party challenger if he decides to run again.

Florida will also be a tough battle as Republicans are lining up to take on Bill Nelson in the wake of Marco Rubio's success.  The list includes Jeb Bush.

There will also be closely watched races in Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia as Republicans try to win back seats that were lost in 2006. 

There is the potential for the Republicans to pick up 7 seats in those swing states.  This means that the Republicans have the chance to win 6 seats in the Senate that are now held by Democrats.  Likely, however, a couple of swing state Democrats will survive.  The most likely, in my opinion, is Jeff Bingaman in New Mexico.  Currently the Senate has 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans and 2 Independents.  After the 2012 Election, the Senate could have 50 Republicans, 49 Democrats and 1 Independent.  I don't see it being much better for the Republicans than this.  But that is nothing to hang your head about.

One potential GOP trouble point is Olympia Snowe in Maine.  If she retires, then a Demorcat is likely to win.  So there are problems for those of you who think that the Republicans are going to sweep to a large majority in 2012.  The reality is that it takes 6 years to take over the US Senate.  Can the TEA Party keep the momentum going through the 2014 Election?

Some safe Republicans will find some difficult in-party challenges in 2012, but these races will likley not lead to Democratic victories.  The most watched of these races will be Orrin Hatch in Utah.  (Remember that the original name of this blog is: FireOrrinHatch)  He could be challenged by Congressman Jason Chaffetz or by Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr, or by TEA Party favorite State Representative Karl Wimmer.  But I do not want to see Hatch go down like this.  I would rather see him spare himself some dignity and just retire.